You’ll just have to stay inside and watch TV—boo hoo.
Here is my bi-weekly dose of contagions for you to absorb. Let’s look at
the conference-by-conference breakdown for the last time until the week of
Selection Sunday. There has been quite a bit of movement as some teams have
begun to swoon like the Chicago Cubs, while other teams pretend they are the
next 1951 New York Giants.
Note: Records are through games of Wednesday, February 22.
America East: 1 bid
Albany 12-2/17-9 and Binghamton 11-4/14-12 have proven to be the class of the
league this year, but only one team is going from the Am East, and that’s
whoever wins the conference tournament. I wouldn’t count out Vermont
7-7/11-14 until someone actually ends their season in the conference
tourney. The Catamounts have the talent to pull it off, as rebounding
becomes even more important in the post-season. Vermont is the best
rebounding team in the league. The conference tournament is at Binghamton
until the final round; the championship game is on the higher seed’s home
court. Binghamton closes at Vermont, while Albany goes on the road to New
Hampshire and Maryland-Baltimore County. Give the Great Danes the advantage
here with two weaker closing games. Albany is going to take the regular
season crown and guarantee themselves no worse than an NIT bid.
Atlantic Coast: 6 bids
The ACC is the third best conference in the RPI ratings, so there is no way I
can justify putting seven teams in the Big Dance. Six looks like the
maximum number that can get invitations.
Duke 14-0/26-1, North Carolina State 10-4/21-6, North Carolina 9-4/18-6, and
Boston College 8-5/21-6 are safe. There will be a dogfight for the
remaining two bids. Florida State 7-6/17-7, Virginia 7-6/14-10, Miami
7-7/15-12, and Maryland 6-7/16-10 are the four contenders. The Seminoles
have the talent to make a run in the conference tournament and get to the
semifinals. They were not expected to finish above ninth
place. Virginia wasn’t supposed to be in the mix either, but the Cavaliers
have responded well to new coach Dave Leitao. Both teams are the
co-favorites to fill out the predicted allotment.
Atlantic Sun: 1 bid
How about Lipscomb 13-5/17-9 and Belmont 13-5/15-10 being tied for the league
lead this late in the season? The two teams may not be able to sell out a
game at Memorial Gym nowadays, but they have a chance to play each other with an
NCAA Tournament bid on the line.
There’s a mighty big fly in the locals’ ointment though. East Tennessee
State 12-6/15-10 gets to host the A-Sun Tournament this year, and the Buccaneers
are tough on their home floor.
Keep an eye on Gardner-Webb 12-6/15-10. The Bulldogs won at ETSU, and
they beat Minnesota in Minneapolis earlier in the season. They also
extended North Carolina to the buzzer.
I’ll give Belmont a slight edge to become the only Nashville area team to
advance to the dance.
Atlantic 10: 1 or 2 bids
The A-10 is down a bit this year, failing to crack the RPI’s top 10
conference list. George Washington 13-0/23-1 is a top 10 team, but the
Colonials have an RPI down in the 30’s. If GW loses in the A-10 Tournament,
I think they will still get a bid. When has a top 10 team been excluded
from the dance?
Charlotte 10-3/17-9 is one of those teams on the rise, having won six
consecutive conference games. The 49ers need to polish their dance shoes,
as they may be the team to beat in the conference tournament. We should get
a preview of the finals on March 4; Charlotte ventures to GW.
St. Louis 9-4/15-10 and La Salle 9-5/17-8 are two more teams trying to come
home first from well off the pace; neither was expected to contend. The
Billikens are well-balanced, while the Explorers have the top player in the
league in Steven Smith.
Big East: 7, 8, or 9 bids
Have you heard that the NCAA is adding a fifth regional this year? It’s
called the Big East Tournament. This could be a year where two Big East teams
make the Final Four and three make the Elite Eight.
Villanova 11-1/21-2, Connecticut 11-2/24-2, Pittsburgh 9-4/20-4, West
Virginia 9-4/18-8, Georgetown 9-5/18-7, and Marquette 8-5/18-8 have already
qualified based on record and RPI. Syracuse 7-6/19-8 and Cincinnati
7-6/18-9 (Andy Kennedy deserves the job full-time) are on the good side of the
bubble, while Seton Hall 7-6/16-9 is right behind them.
Louisville 5-8/17-9 still has a lot of work to do and may have to get to the
conference finals to secure a bid. I think they will be a number one seed
in the NIT.
Big Sky: 1 bid
Two teams are clearly better than the rest in this league. Northern
Arizona 11-1/19-8 didn’t fare so well in last week’s Bracket Buster, but the
Lumberjacks from Flagstaff can wrap up the regular season title and guaranteed
minimum of the NIT with a win over Sacramento State Saturday.
Montana 8-3/19-5 has the better chance of upsetting someone in the NCAA
Tournament. The Grizzlies own a blowout win over Stanford. Montana
closes out the regular season hosting NAU. I believe the Grizzlies will win
that one and then win the rubber game when the bid is on the line.
Keep an eye on Montana State 6-5/14-12 as a dark horse. The Bobcats have
the experience and talent to pull off the upset.
Big South: 1 bid
Birmingham Southern 12-3/19-7 and Winthrop 11-3/18-7 have fought it out tooth
and nail all season. Winthrop won the first battle between the two by 41
points to open up conference play. The two teams close out in the season in
Birmingham.
Buzz Peterson has recovered nicely since he was shown the big orange
door. His Coastal Carolina team 10-4/16-9 has won eight conference games in
a row, including a sweep over Winthrop and a win over B’ham Sou.
Big 10: 6 or 7 bids
The RPI ratings say this is the top league in the land. I think the Big
10 edges out the Big East because last place Purdue, 10th place
Northwestern, and ninth place Penn State are better than South Florida, DePaul,
and St. John’s.
Ohio State 9-4/20-4, Iowa 9-4/20-7, Wisconsin 8-4/18-7, Illinois 8-5/22-5,
Michigan 8-6/18-7, and Michigan State 7-6/19-8 can figure on needing hotel
reservations in mid-March.
Indiana 6-7/14-10 absolutely must win at Purdue and beat one of the Michigan
teams and then win their first conference tournament game to be seriously
considered. 17-12 should put them on the good side of the bubble.
Minnesota 5-8/14-10 started league play at 0-6 and has since won five of
seven. I think it’s too little too late, but the Gophers could be ready to
make a deep NIT run.
Big 12: 3, 4, or 5 bids
No longer are seven or eight teams competing for six spots. The Big 12
has two very good teams, two fairly good teams, and two decent teams. Texas
11-2/23-4 and Kansas 11-2/20-6 are already in. Oklahoma 9-4/18-6 is
probably already in.
Colorado 7-6/17-7, Texas A&M 7-6/17-7, and Nebraska 7-6/17-9 are
competing for the remaining one definite bid. I like A&M’s chances to
finish 9-7 with an upset at home over Texas. That could propel the Aggies
over the top.
It looks like Knight School graduates to the NIT. Texas Tech 6-7/14-13
doesn’t have the talent to win twice in the conference tourney.
Big West: 1 bid
Pacific 9-2/19-7 isn’t as good as last year, but the Tigers still have a
thoroughbred to rely on in Christian Maraker, the league’s best
player.
UC-Irvine 10-3/15-11 owns a split with Pacific and must be considered the top
contender to dethrone the Tigers.
I have a suspicion here that sixth place Cal. St. Fullerton 4-8/12-11 may be
poised to make a surprise run to the finals of the Big West Tournament. The
Titans have the second and third best players in the league in Bobby Brown and
Jamaal Brown. Most of their losses have been by six points or less.
Colonial: 1 or 2 bids
Both George Mason 14-2/21-5 and UNC-Wilmington 13-3/20-7 have high enough
RPIs to qualify for the Big Dance. GMU probably clinched an at-large berth
last week with an impressive win at Wichita State in the Bracket Buster.
Should UNCW falter in the CAA Tournament, it opens the door for Hofstra
12-4/20-5 and Old Dominion 11-5/19-8. Virginia Commonwealth 10-6/17-8 could
play themselves into the mix with a season-ending sweep of UNCW and William
& Mary.
Conference USA: 1 or 2 bids
Memphis 11-0/25-2 is a lock. Alabama-Birmingham 9-2/19-5 can jump up to
the top of the bubble by winning out (that would include a home upset over
Memphis). Texas-El Paso 9-2/17-7 and Houston 8-3/18-6 have the talent to
threaten in the conference tournament, but for either to go dancing, they would
have to win the automatic bid.
Horizon: 1 bid
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 12-4/19-8 is clearly weaker this season than last and
highly susceptible to an upset loss in the conference tournament. Butler
11-4/18-10 is the leading contender in that battle. Also in the hunt are
Wright State 8-7/13-13, Loyola of Chicago 7-8/16-10, Illinois-Chicago 7-8/14-14,
UW-Green Bay 7-8/13-15 and Detroit 7-8/14-15. This should be a fairly
competitive post-season tango. Illinois-Chicago has a trio of excellent
rebounders, so the Flames are my dark horse team to challenge UWM.
Independents: 0 bids
Texas A&M Corpus Christie is 19-8, so they deserve a spot in the
NIT. North Dakota State is the only other independent who will finish above
.500, but they will be staying home this year.
Ivy League: 1 bid
Penn 8-1/16-7 has a two game lead in the conference race. This is the
lone remaining league without a postseason get-together.
Metro Atlantic: 1 or 2 bids
Has Iona 13-3/20-5 done enough to guarantee themselves an at-large
spot? I tend to think not. The Gaels have an RPI just above 70, and
that’s not adequate.
Manhattan 12-4/16-9 and Marist 10-6/16-9 are the two key contenders for the
automatic bid.
Mid-American: 1 bid
The MAC usually gets two or more bids, but this year finds them caught in a
numbers’ game. Too many mid-major teams from other leagues are getting all
the attention this season.
Kent State 13-2/20-7 may change coaches as frequently as the changes in
Nashville’s weather, but the Golden Flash continue to impress in the
MAC. Akron 12-3/19-7, Miami of Ohio 12-3/16-8, and Ohio U. 10-6/16-8 make
the East Division the overwhelming dominant division in the league.
Mid-Continent: 1 bid
IUPUI 13-1/18-7 has two difficult MCC road games left to play in the regular
season (Chicago State and Southern Utah). Oral Roberts 11-3/16-11 travels
to last place Centenary and hosts Valparaiso 8-6/16-9. While IUPUI is the
favorite to return to the NCAA Tournament, you can never discount Homer Drew and
Valpo.
Mid-Eastern Athletic: 1 bid
Obviously when a league is rated low in the RPI, only the conference’s
automatic qualifier will get a mention on Selection Sunday. Delaware State
14-1/16-11 has the best shot at earning a spot in the playoff round of the NCAA
Tournament.
Missouri Valley: 3 or 4 bids
Six teams are now in the mix in the MVC. Bradley 10-7/17-9 went to the
Uni-dome and not only upset Northern Iowa 11-6/22-7, they won by 22 points.
Wichita State 13-4/22-7 has clinched a share of the league crown. The
Shockers lead Creighton 12-5/19-7 by one game. Missouri State 11-6/19-7 and
Southern Illinois 11-6/18-10 round out the contender list. I favor Missouri
State in the conference tournament, but trying to figure out the other two or
three invitees is anyone’s guess. All six teams reside in the RPI top
50.
Mountain West: 1 or 2 bids
The 10th best conference is never a guarantee to pick up two NCAA
bids, and the MWC is this year’s number 10 league. San Diego State
11-3/18-8 has led the conference for most of the year with Air Force 10-4/22-5
trailing close behind. Brigham Young 9-4/17-7 has won six of seven games
including victories over both SDSU and AFA. UNLV 9-4/15-10 has tough road
games remaining at Air Force and New Mexico, but the Runnin’ Rebels must be
considered one of the top contenders. The league tournament is in Denver,
so no team has any real advantage.
Northeast: 1 bid
Fairleigh Dickinson 13-4/17-10, Central Connecticut 11-5/15-10, and Monmouth
11-5/14-13 are the top three NEC teams, but none of the three are dominant
enough that someone else cannot come from the back of the pack and claim the
automatic bid. I give a slight edge to Central Connecticut.
Ohio Valley: 1 bid
Murray State 16-2/20-5 ran away from the rest of the field, but the Racers
don’t have a high enough RPI to secure an at-large bid. They should romp
through the OVC tournament and get the automatic bid. Then, Racer fans will
have to sweat it out during coaching carousel season. Mick Cronin will
eventually move on to a higher profile school.
Pac-10: 3 or 4 bids
This league is only the seventh best this year. The seventh best team
usually gets no more than three bids. UCLA 10-4/20-6 and Washington
9-5/20-5 are the two safe teams. California 10-4/16-7 leads a group of
three more teams on the bubble. Stanford 9-5/13-10, Arizona 9-6/16-10, and
Southern Cal 7-7/16-9 still have work to do. Lute Olsen’s Wildcats have a
fat RPI and should get in the dance with their tradition.
Patriot League: 1 or 2 teams
If Bucknell 13-0/22-4 wins the Patriot League Tournament, then only one team
will go from this league. Lehigh 11-2/18-10 has the talent to pull off the
upset and force the Selection Committee to take two from this conference.
Southeastern: 5 bids
In the last two weeks, the SEC has moved well ahead of the Big 12 for fourth
best league. With Kentucky 8-5/15-9 beginning to play like they were
supposed to play, expect five teams to be happy come Selection Sunday. The
Wildcats now have a chance to get a first round bye in the SEC Tournament.
Tennessee 11-2/20-4, LSU 11-2/19-7, and Florida 8-5/22-5 are sure
things. Alabama 8-5/15-10 and Arkansas 7-6/18-8 are competing for the final
spot. I cannot envision any of the other teams winning four games in four
days and upsetting the apple cart. Look for one of the four teams not
playing on Thursday to win the tournament.
Southern: 1 bid
The SoCon should enjoy one of the most exciting conference tournaments in
division one this year. Seven teams are bunched together with very little
room between first and seventh. Those teams are: Elon 9-4/13-13,
Chattanooga 7-6/16-12, Western Carolina 7-6/13-15, Georgia Southern 10-4/19-8,
Charleston 9-5/17-9, Davidson 9-5/16-10, and Furman 8-6/15-11.
I give the slight edge to Charleston, as they host the tournament. Their
home town advantage is not all that strong, but it may be worth two or three
points.
Southland: 1 bid
Northwestern State 11-1/18-7 holds a commanding three game lead in the
Southland, and it would be terrible for any other school to upset them in the
conference tournament. The Demons actually have a chance to win a game in
the NCAA Tournament with the talent on this team. They took Utah State to
the wire in the Bracket Buster.
Southwestern Athletic: 1 bid
The SWAC is the consensus last place league in the NCAA, even behind the
Independents. The winner of this league’s automatic bid is almost certain
to advance to Dayton for the play-in game.
Southern 12-3/13-12 and Grambling 10-4/12-9 are the leading contenders, with
Alabama State 9-5/11-14 just behind. Alabama A&M 7-7/9-12 has the
firepower to win three straight games and take the bid.
Sunbelt: 1 bid
Western Kentucky 11-1/20-5 has inched closer towards at-large
status. The Hilltoppers have moved up to the low 40’s of the RPI. I
just cannot see two teams going from this league, as the Sunbelt is rated as the
18th best league.
South Alabama 10-3/19-6 is the second best team in the league. Middle
Tennessee 6-6/14-11 hosts the tournament, but the Blue Raiders are too
inconsistent to win it.
West Coast: 1 or 2 bids
Gonzaga 12-0/23-3 is obviously in already. If someone can upset them in
the WCC Tournament, then this league must get two teams. San Diego 6-6/16-9
or St. Mary’s 6-6/14-11 should be the opponent in the finals (whichever team
gets the number three seed).
Western Athletic Conference: 1 or 2 bids
Nevada 10-3/21-5 has earned an at-large bid with an RPI in the 20’s. If
they don’t get an automatic bid, it will be because one of three teams beat
them. They are: Louisiana Tech 9-4/17-10, Utah State 8-4/18-6, or Hawaii
8-5/15-9. I give Louisiana Tech with Paul Millsap the best shot at
dethroning the Wolf Pack.
The Computer Picks For Saturday’s and Sunday’s SEC Games
| L S U |
76 |
| Kentucky |
68 |
| |
|
| Ole Miss |
69 |
| Auburn |
67 |
| |
|
| Mississippi State |
73 |
| Georgia |
72 |
| |
|
| Tennessee |
90 |
| Arkansas |
80 |
| |
|
| South Carolina |
66 |
| Vanderbilt |
60 |
| |
|
| Sunday |
|
| Florida |
80 |
| Alabama |
69 |