Utah State @ Arkansas
JW: Well, Arkansas stood toe to toe with USC for all of
a quarter and a half or so, but that 50-14 loss sure wasn’t pretty. What a
great time to play Utah State, who just showed their football prowess in a loss
last week to football powerhouse Wyoming, 38-7. The only way Arkansas
loses this one is if they’re looking past Utah State to the next week’s match-up
with Vanderbilt. I can’t believe I just said that. Razorbacks by
17.
MO: And I can’t believe I just read it, or further,
that it does indeed makes sense. The key to Utah State winning this game
making sure the Razorbacks get lost on the way to the
stadium. Unfortunately, Arkansas is playing at home, so I’m not even giving
the Aggies a chance. ‘Backs by 35.
Central Florida @ Florida
MO: Florida hit their stride late last week in the
first half, turning a 0-7 seven deficit to Southern Miss into a 34-7
romp. Leak threw for nearly 250 yards, and three backs combined for 143
yards. Despite the 34 points, though, there are people that say the Gators
didn’t have the “offense explosion” that they were expecting. UCF is coming
off a 35-16 romp of their own, this one at home against Villanova. Seems to
me that UCF is about to find out just how much better the SEC powers are when
compared the Big East doormats. Florida by 27
JW: If Florida didn't "explode" against USM, I'd hate
to see what this game is going to look like. Maybe those fickle fans and
media commentators will be happier about this one. Gators win it by
31.
Ole Miss @ Missouri
JW: This one should be a tight game – Ole Miss showed
marked improvement from last year, beating Memphis in Oxford, thanks in part to
a ridiculously good debut game from freshman Dexter McCluster. Mizzou
destroyed I-AA Murray State, so we have no clue what they’re capable of.
Ole Miss certainly looks more confident this year, but they still have some work
to do. I’m going with Mizzou by 10.
MO: McCluster did have a great day, but half his
production was on kick-offs, which, unfortunately for Ole Miss, meant Memphis
was scoring on them often. To me, this is a bad sign for the Rebels,
especially when defense is supposed to be Coach Orgeron’s specialty. If the
Tigers can get ahead early, it will be a long Saturday for those in
Oxford. Missouri by 17.
Texas State @ Kentucky
MO: Unlike Vanderbilt, UK did not come out their road
match-up against a Top 15 team with any positives. Louisville amassed 631
total yards 363 of those on the ground, despite losing their top running back
for the season in the beginning of the second half. UK could only manage 22
rushing yards for the game, and will be playing a TX St. team that last week
gave up 35 yards last week in a 27-23 win over… Tarleton State. The Bobcats
did give up over 300 yds passing, though, and I’m guessing that Wildcat QB Andre Woodson should pad his stats this week. Look for the Wildcats to get
better, but not as much as Wildcat faithful would like. UK by 20
JW: Kentucky needs this one badly, after their
shellacking at the hands of Louisville. Texas State shouldn't be much of a
problem, and I don't think this will be anywhere close to one of those Div. I-AA
upsets. Then again, I don't think Kentucky is going to look all that
impressive after such a demoralizing loss. Wildcats win it, but it ain't
pretty. UK by 17.
Air Force @ Tennessee
JW: Apparently, you beat a perennially-overrated
California team, and it’s time to start thinking National Championship!
Seriously, though, as much as it pains me to say it, the Vols have a lot to be
happy about, but I’m not totally convinced they’re the powerhouse they thought
they would be last season. And I somehow doubt that a game in Knoxville
against Air Force is going to change things one way or the other. Looks
like the orange faithful will have one more week to enjoy before they choke
against Florida. Smokey by 24.
MO: Air Force has always been one of those sneaky teams
that is either really good or really bad, and you can’t tell which until about
halfway through the season. The interesting part about this game is that
this is Air Force’s season opener, so they’ve had 8 months to prepare for UT,
while the Vols had to focus on a Top Ten ranked opponent. This smacks of
upset, especially since there’s always the chance that Florida may be looming in
the thoughts of Orange Nation. I really, really want to say that Air Force
wins this, but I know that’s my heart getting in the way of my brain. I’ll
guess that UT wins it, but Air Force keeps it close and has the lead at some
point in the second half. UT by 6.
Auburn @ Mississippi State
MO: Auburn looked great in a blowout win against
Washington St. last week, with RB Kenny Irons tallying 183 yards. Though
losing at the end of the fourth quarter 6-7, Auburn outscored the Cougars 34-7
for the rest of the game. The Bulldogs are coming off a decent defensive
showing, holding Steve Spurrier’s normally potent offense to 15 points. The
problem? They didn’t score any of their own. I think MSU’s defense
won’t allow Auburn to score 40, but I don’t think their offense is going to
score nearly enough to make it all that close. Auburn by 24
JW: Auburn looks really good again this year, but as is
always the case with a strong SEC, they'll lose at least one and not have a shot
at a national championship. Of course, this won't be that one game.
Mississippi State is fighting hard to become the new doormat of the SEC along
with Kentucky, and they might have a legitimate shot at it this season with Ole
Miss showing improvement. This one will be over by the second
quarter. Tigers by 28.
Georgia @ South Carolina
JW: This could be a fun game to watch. Although
I’m not convinced South Carolina’s that amazing after a 15-0 win over
Mississippi State, I’m sure Steve Spurrier will find some way to keep the
Gamecocks close and give the Bulldogs a scare. This will be Georgia’s only
real test probably until October when they take on UT, so no doubt they’ll be
ready for this game. In the end, the visor gets thrown, and Georgia
escapes with a 10-point victory.
MO: I’ll give you that the offense didn’t look all that
good, but that defense looked really good, though admittedly against a woeful
MSU. If Georgia is starting an experienced quarterback and the game is in
Athens, I’m right with you with Georgia winning by 10, but I just don’t see it
this week. I think we’re going to see the Fun’n’Gun roar back to life
and Spurrier show the home fans that they can beat the big boys in the SEC (just
like Holtz did by beating Georgia in the second game of the ’01
season). This is going to be a big season for the Gamecocks, and the first
step to achieving it happens on Saturday. SC by 13.
Arizona @ LSU
MO: The Bayou Bengals crushed UL-Lafayette last week,
45-3, holding the Ragin’ Cajuns to 176 yds of total offense while getting 469
yds of their own. JaMarcus Russell answered all of his critics by throwing
for 253 yds and putting the game away early with four TD passes in the first
half. Arizona faced a tougher opponent in BYU and barely squeaked out a
16-13 win thanks to last second 48-yard FG. The Wildcats gave up 289 yds in
the air, a stat that you know Russell has to be drooling over. Even with
the weaker non-conference teams listed above, I think this just might be the SEC
blowout of the week. LSU by 35
JW: You won't find much of an argument from me here.
In fact, you won't find much of an argument from me on many of these
picks. Blame it on the early-season cupcake scheduling. JaMarcus
Russell is on a mission, and there's no way Arizona is going to be able to stop
him. LSU's real test will be the following week against Auburn. In
this tune-up game, the Tigers come out on top by 24.
MTSU @ Maryland
JW: After the barnburner that was FIU/MTSU, the Blue
Raiders are probably still riding the high of their latest victory.
Maryland had some trouble with William and Mary, but still pulled off the 27-14
win. It probably won’t be pretty on the offensive side for the Terps, but
I’m willing to bet their defense can stop the offensive juggernaut that is
MTSU. Too bad I can’t say the same thing about their next game against
WVU. Maryland by 28.
MO: That William and Mary game scared me a little bit,
especially since we all know that BCS-conference schools have been known to stub
their toes when playing MTSU at home before. It’s still Maryland, though,
so I’m not worried too much about whether they’ll win, but I think it’s going to
be closer than a lot of people think. Fear the Turtle, but not all that
much – Terps by 17.
Indiana @ Ball State
MO: Both teams are coming off of extremely similar
wins, with the Hoosiers defeating Western Michigan 39-20 and Ball State
defeating Eastern Michigan 38-20. While MAC teams are always an upset
threat, Coach Heoppner has Indiana on track for a great season and should take
care of business on the “road” (though still in their home state). Indiana
by 10.
JW: I'll take your word on this one, sir. It
looks like Indiana's in pretty good shape, and should be the better team that
night. While the scores are eerily similar, it does look like Western
Michigan is the better of the two directional Michigan schools. Defense
and special teams make this one an easy win for the Hoosiers, who win it by
17.
Penn State @ Notre Dame
JW: I haven’t really gone out on a limb yet with any of
these predictions (you should see me play blackjack), but here’s one for you:
this game will be more interesting and fun to watch than Ohio State/Texas.
Not only that, but Penn State will pull off the upset. Notre Dame was
thankful to get out of Georgia with the win, but Tech exposed some weaknesses
that you know Joe Paterno will be all over. It’ll be a great
back-and-forth game, with Penn State’s defense preserving the victory in the
end. Nittany Lions by 6.
MO: Glad to see you join me out here on the limb, Jay –
welcome to the fantastic world of picking upsets (as well as tending to double
down on soft 20’s). However, I’m going to leave you out here this time – I
like ND to pick themselves up and win their home opener. Charlie Weis is no
stranger to close wins (see the Tuck Rule game followed by the Pats’ first SB
win), and the Irish should have a chip on their shoulder. The Irish lost
two spots in the polls after they won on the road to a strong ACC team and were
leap-frogged by a Texas team that played a cupcake at home (and quite possibly
got the #2 ranking only to set up a #1 v. #2 match-up this week). I’ll
agree that this game should be tighter than OSU v. UT, but I think the Irish
will recover nicely and send JoePa back to State College, PA with their first
loss of the year. Irish by 10.
Ohio State @ Texas
MO: No. 1 v. No. 2 battles always get a lot of hype,
but often don’t pay off as good games. Here we have the defending national
champion Texas Longhorns, fresh off a stomping of North Texas, taking on the
top-ranked challengers, the Ohio State University Buckeyes, fresh off a stomping
of their own v. Northern Illinois. Each team brings in many strengths and
few weaknesses, meaning it could come down to that old clichéd scapegoat of
sports journalism analysis – intangibles. I’m giving the edge to Ohio St.
in the one for the main being that they have an established QB this season, a
lack therein that cost them last year’s game in Columbus. I like Colt McCoy, but it’s awful hard for a freshman (even a redshirt) to come into a game
and outplay a QB who played in the same game last year. In the end, I think
it will be a rare payoff in these type of games, though the Buckeyes should pull
away late. Ohio St. by 13.
JW: I still have a feeling that this one isn't going
to be nearly as good as the hype surrounding it, which, of course, is usually
the case. I really want to pick Texas with the "upset," but I just don't
see it happening. Texas needed Vince Young to pull off the victory last
year in Ohio Stadium - something I just can't see Colt McCoy doing quite
yet. Ohio State was arguably three points from the national championship
last year - they'll be determined not to let it be that close this year. I
see OSU winning this by 17, with the game out of reach midway through the fourth
quarter.
Vanderbilt @ Alabama
JW: Can Chris Nickson improve on his first-game
mistakes? Is the offensive line really that bad, or was Michigan’s d-line
really that good? What happened to our running game (or did I just answer
that with the previous question?)? On the other hand, did Alabama live up
to their hype by beating Hawaii by 8 in Tuscaloosa? Both teams have a lot
to work on this week. I expect to see a lot of improvement from
Vanderbilt, particularly in the offense, but it’s not enough to overcome an
Alabama team still trying to assert itself. It will be close, like all
Vandy/Bama games are, but ultimately the Tide pulls it off by a touchdown.
MO: So many questions, and it’s honestly still too
early to answer them – but I’ll give it a whirl anyway. Michigan played
typical Big 10 football, where defending the run is key, which is different from
the SEC where you have to defend against both the pass and the run. I think
Nickson will improve on his mistakes and our run will show what it’s capable of
after being thwarted in Ann Arbor. John Parker Wilson, a first-year
starting sophomore QB has now been tested by Hawaii, while VU’s Chris Nickson
has been tested by Michigan at Ann Arbor. I think the edge there goes to
VU, and I think that Bama is due for an upset early in the season. I may be
guilty of picking with my heart rather than my brain, but so be it – I’ll take
VU by 6.