JW: Last week was pretty good to me, going 10-2 outright,
and 10-1 against the spread, my lone miss coming from the Colorado/Georgia game,
but I'd like to see anyone who predicted a one-point victory for Georgia.
Wow. This week brings a smaller slate of SEC games, but some pretty good
match-ups. It looks like we're out of cupcake season for a while (unless
you're playing Temple or a school from Mississippi), so you can count on closer
games and maybe even a few upsets. I'm glad all the complaints about
officials have died down, although it was nice to see some higher-profile teams
feeling what Vanderbilt feels roughly every three games or so. I, for one,
am glad that Chancellor Gee hasn't made any ridiculous statements demanding our
losses to Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, and half a dozen other teams be wiped from
the record books. Maybe he hasn't because he's had more, um, pressing
issues to deal with, such as stupid hit-pieces from the Wall Street Journal, but
I'm glad he and Coach Johnson have publicly downplayed this topic. Anyway,
let's move on to the picks!
MO: Ah, the picks, they are a cruel, cruel
mistress. At first glance, I loved my picks, as I picked every single game
correctly outright. My problem came when winning teams scored on late
defensive touchdowns **coughcoughOhioStatecoughcough** to ruin my spread
picks. Despite being a spotless 12-0 outright, I was a mere 4-7 against the
spread. This week, the games get a little better, but there aren’t too many
big match-ups to make it one of there fantastic weekends we had a few weeks
ago. That won’t stop us form making the picks and silly observations,
though, now will it?
Auburn @ South Carolina
JW: I'm still not convinced that the Gamecocks are as
bad as they've looked recently. It's hard to deny Spurrier's (college)
coaching abilities, and they definitely have some talent. I don't know if
they'll get their issues worked out this year or not, but I think we can all
agree that South Carolina is underperforming. However, even if they
actually *are* pretty bad this year, even in their worst years they've given
some good teams a scare. Will Auburn be the one? They sleepwalked
through one half against Buffalo, and came out with an underwhelming 31-point
win. Poor Auburn, only beating one of the worst teams in Div I-A by 31
points! Obviously the wheels are coming off. I really need to stop
with this sarcasm thing, because it just can't be conveyed that well.
Anyway, I think South Carolina might put up a decent fight for some time, but
it'll ultimately just be another L. Auburn by 17.
MO: The Gamecocks finally came back to life last week,
pasting Florida Atlantic in the process. The road doesn’t stay easy though,
as South Carolina hosts Auburn this weekend. Off a stomping of their own
against Buffalo, the Tigers look to stay unbeaten, and have to put a hurting on
the Gamecocks in order to stay #2 in the AP poll. I think the score should
stay high, but it’ll be War Eagle once again as Auburn heads out of Columbia a
victor, winning by 13.
Tennessee @ Memphis
MO: Do you remember where you were in ’96 when Memphis
ran a kickoff return back for a TD to take the lead against UT for
good? It’s the 10th anniversary of that stunner, but don’t look
for that scenario to unfold again. UT has rebounded from a disappointing
5-6 season (including a 28-24 loss to Vanderbilt) by winning three of its first
four games, and only losing to Florida by 1. The only hope for Memphis is
that UT is looking ahead to Georgia, but even then, I don’t think this Tiger
team (who has already lost to Ole Miss) can pull off the upset. UT by
10.
JW: UT is still working hard to forget last season, and
so far they're doing a pretty good job of it. Memphis won't put up much of
a challenge here, and the Vols will keep chugging along, hoping to step things
up for Georgia. Memphis is really weak, losing to both Ole Miss and East Carolina, and even though this game is played in the Liberty Bowl, it still
won't be pretty. The Vols might come out a little flat, but ultimately,
they get a decisive win. UT by 20.
Mississippi State @ LSU
JW: So, the Bulldogs' big win this year might end up
being UAB, if only because it'll be their only win. Then again, Ole Miss
seems to be putting up a nice fight for the bottom of the league. The Egg
Bowl should be a blast this year. State pulled off its first win of the
season last week against the Blazers, 16-10, in Birmingham, their first road
game. Maybe it's just Starkville that makes the Bulldogs bad...maybe being
in the bustling metropolis that is Birmingham, Alabama, inspired them to play
better football. However, their road fortunes are sure to come to a halt
against JaMarcus Russell and the Tigers, still mad about their loss to Auburn
two weeks ago. Mississippi State is as easy a doormat as you can get, and
LSU would like a nice tune-up before the Florida game. LSU beat Tulane by
42 points at home, and MSU lost to Tulane by 3 points at home. Does this
mean that LSU is better than MSU by at least 45 points? Easily, but I
don't think that'll be the difference. Look for a lot of second and
third-string play after LSU gets a comfortable lead by halftime. Tigers by
30.
MO: Yeah, I’m afraid the MSU fun train is about to come
to a screeching halt. I think the timing of this game is bad since MSU is
no longer hungry for a win, while LSU can’t lose another game without dropping
out of the “national powerhouse” echelon. LSU wins this, taking an early
lead and cruising to a 27-point win.
Central Michigan @ Kentucky
MO: The Wildcats could only manage 39 yards of rushing
defense against Florida, and look to rebound nicely against Central
Michigan. It might not be quite that easy, though. Central Michigan
has looked good in the MAC conference, going 2-0 and averaging 152.5 rushing
yards each game. I have a hunch that UK will be trailing for a least part
of the game, but should pull away with scoring drives in the fourth quarter,
winning by 10.
JW: I gotta hand it to Kentucky, having the guts to
schedule arguably the strongest of the three directional Michigan schools
(which, honestly, doesn't really say a whole lot). Central Michigan has a
three-point win over Akron, and a 7-point win over Eastern Michigan in overtime,
while Kentucky can hang its hat on a dismantling of Texas State-San Marcos and
Ole Miss. It's probably a relatively close matchup on paper, and they've
both lost to strong teams (Central Michigan to BC and Michigan, Kentucky to
Louisville and Florida). Ultimately, I think UK's the better team, and
their home-field advantage gives them an extra edge. Look for the Wildcats
to win this one by 9.
Alabama @ Florida
JW: Arkansas came out on top in the “We Only Beat
Vanderbilt By Two or Three” bowl (trademark pending, O'Neill-Williams
Enterprises) with a one-point win in double-overtime last week, making my
straight-up pick wrong, but preserving my spread pick. With the game in
the Swamp and Florida looking pretty sharp, the Gators are pretty heavily
favored here. However, this is one of those rivalry games where anything
can happen, and you know Bama's pretty fired up to get back on the winning
track. Vandy fans are still wondering what the football gods have against
them while watching Leigh Tiffin miss all those kicks after kicking a
game-winner against the 'Dores, and probably rolled their eyes as Houston Nutt
once again looked very un-coachlike after the win. But I digress.
Florida's worked their way into the top five, and Alabama has fallen from
grace. Rivalry games can only help so much, and Bama already starts in a
pretty big hole. This won't be as close as the UT game. Gators by
16.
MO: Alabama has to be ticked off. They lost a game
that they easily could have won despite doing everything they needed to do to
get back to Tuscaloosa with a win. If this game weren’t at the Swamp, I’d
feel a LOT better about their chances, but it’s not. The game is in The
Swamp, a daunting environment for a Bama kicker that needs a steady game this
week to avoid coming unglued for the rest of the season. To make matters
worse, Chris Leak is starting to get some Heisman talk, and this would be a
great game to separate himself from most other candidates, especially if Troy Smith struggles at Iowa (see below). I think he will do just that, leading
the Gators to a 24-point win.
Purdue @ Notre Dame
MO: Purdue is coming off of one of its worst football
season in a long time, while Notre Dame looked great in the second half of last
week’s game at Michigan St. I think Notre Dame can really build off the
comeback win and play the “disrespect” card to a certain extent since a lot of
media pundits are claiming that MSU simply gave the game away rather than the
Irish winning it. I think Brady Quinn lights it up in an attempt to
regain Heisman standing, and the Irish defend home turf successfully, winning by
21.
JW: Yeah, I know it only motivates Notre Dame, but
Michigan State really did blow it. I know, Brady Quinn looked great, the
offense was firing on all cylinders, yadda yadda yadda, but the Spartans
practically rolled over. Brady Quinn's an impressive quarterback, but he
still has some work to do if he wants to overcome the Michigan debacle and have
a shot at the Heisman. Purdue's probably a good starting point.
They're undefeated so far this season, but they haven't yet faced anyone close
to the caliber of the Irish. Look for Quinn to air it out and prove that
he can play all four quarters effectively. Fightin' Irish by 24.
Georgia @ Ole Miss
JW: Yeah, maybe Wake Forest is pretty good, but I think
we can all agree that Ole Miss is *really* bad. Sure, you can say that
Wake Forest and Missouri are two nice surprises this year, and Ole Miss is just
a victim of an unlucky schedule, but there's really no excuse for the loss to
Kentucky, and there isn't an excuse for only scoring a field goal at home
against a team from the under-performing ACC. But what about
Georgia? They were ridiculously lucky to pull out the one-point win
against Colorado. I don't know what happened, but looking at their
schedule, I'm starting to wonder if Georgia's really as good as people say they
are. Maybe the Colorado "win" wasn't a fluke. Sure, their other wins
were by wide margins, but look at the competition - Western Kentucky, UAB, and
South Carolina. Luckily for Georgia, Ole Miss fits nicely into that list
of teams, and Georgia is looking to prove that they're for real. The
Rebels are demoralized, and things aren't looking up in the state of
Mississippi. Bulldogs by 20.
MO: Yep, Ole Miss is REALLY bad, and I think the folks
in Oxford are getting another example of just how bad the Rebels are this
weekend. With a QB controversy unfolding in Athens, you know that whoever’s
behind center is going to be looking for electrifying plays to distance
themselves from their teammates. Most opponents can benefit from this by
taking advantage of the high-risk nature of such QB behavior. Too bad Ole
Miss isn’t most opponents. We’re going to see a LOT of air attack from
Georgia, no matter who’s arm it comes from, and they’ll walk out, winning by
35.
Ohio State @ Iowa
MO: In what’s being hailed as the game of the week,
Ohio St. gets another road test when they head out to face Iowa. The
buckeyes have shown they can win on the road, besting Texas in the “1 vs. 2”
battle a few weeks back, but the Hawkeyes are still a great team and should give
them a tough fight. Iowa has only given up 170 yards passing per game, so
Troy Smith may be grounded throughout most of the game. I think it’ll be
close, but I think a late drive by tOSU keeps the game out of the Hawkeyes’
reach, and the Buckeyes head winning the victors, winning by 13.
JW: This should be a fun game, and I think Troy Smith
is going to find ways around the Iowa defense and put up considerably more yards
than the 170 Iowa has allowed on average. I know it's been a while since
they did it, but I still think the "THE Ohio State University" thing is pretty
silly. I'm going to put THE in front of my name from now on, just so
everyone knows I'm the authentic Jay Williams, and not that trouble-making
basketball player. Guess I'll head to the DMV after this. Anyway, as
for the game, I think Iowa's a tough opponent, but I also don't think they're as
strong as their rankings may suggest. Oh, you beat Montana 41-7?
Well then, you're a regular powerhouse! Let's just ignore the 7-point win
at Syracuse, shall we? Yeah, I know, Syracuse isn't *that* bad, but if
you're a top-15 team, you should be winning by more than a touchdown. The
best thing Iowa has going for it is that the game is played at home, but OSU has
already shown that they aren't intimidated by a hostile environment. It's
starting to feel like my number of the week, but I'm going with OSU by 17.
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
JW: This could be a fun game. Georgia Tech has
surprised a lot of people with its early successes, and Virginia Tech is in the
hunt for a conference championship and a BCS bowl. After scaring the
bejeezus out of Notre Dame to start the season, the Jackets have since rolled
over Samford, Troy, and Virginia at home. Virginia Tech, on the other
hand, has had a fun time destroying Northeastern, UNC, Duke, and
Cincinnati. This is the first real test for the Hokies, so Georgia Tech
might have a bit of an advantage when it comes to experience against solid
teams. This will be a fun game to watch, and I think Virginia Tech pulls
out a close one, thanks to its talent advantage. Virginia Tech by
7.
MO: First test, eh? Too bad the players at VA
Tech aren’t traditionally good at tests. The Jackets are having a lot of
success this season and could make a bunch of noise in a down ACC. I think
it starts this Saturday with a big upset over one of the conference
darlings. Why? You’re expecting intelligent analysis of an ACC game by
TWO writers in the SAME article? Pshaw!! Georgia Tech returns to
Atlanta winning the Battle of the Techs by 10.
Temple @ Vanderbilt
MO: Even though it’s a home game, the Commodores will
find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they take the field as 33-point
favorites against a D-1 team. Even though Vanderbilt is facing a Temple
team that is regarded to be the worst in all of D-1, I get the sense that this
might not be as easy game as we fans are hoping for. Maybe it’s because
it’s the fifth game of the season. VU has a record of 5-20 in their last 25
years of Week 5 games, including a slate of season-killing or otherwise
deflating losses: Tulane in ’84, the 6-7 loss to LSU in ’97, the OT loss to
Georgia Tech in ’03, the Rutgers comeback in ’04, and last year’s inexplicable
loss to MTSU. Also bear in mind that Temple has heard all season how bad a
team they are and are coming into Nashville as one of the biggest road underdogs
that Dudley Field has ever seen. I think they’ll be ready for this game,
and should give Vandy more of a fight than the fans are expecting.
That said, I don’t think that Temple walks out the winner – far from
it. I think that the Commodores can control this game, but I have a hunch
that Temple gets on the board early, which will keep the Dores focused
throughout the rest of the game. Nickson should get the chance to work on
the deep ball – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him top 300 yards, even before
being pulled early to give Adams and/or Kovalcheck some reps. I think
Hawkins could have a breakout game, and Vanderbilt should come out on top by
27.
JW: Wow, that's some impressive research, my
friend. I'm a little worried that you're going to start adding more and
more credibility and legitimacy to our picks. But those stats do provide
us with a sobering reminder of the nasty habits of our favorite football
team. I've personally witnessed some of those game-five losses, and boy do
they sit with you. I've woken up many a night in a cold sweat, with images
of Jeremiah Weaver blowing right past the line and smothering a field goal
attempt. Actually, the worse image is that of Andy McCollum rolling around
on the ground like an idiot with Weaver at the end of the game. But I
digress (yes, I do that a lot).
Temple is bad. Really bad. If they played TSU, TSU would probably
be favored. I'm almost willing to predict that our defense and special
teams alone will score enough to beat Temple, but I also don't want to jinx
us. Vanderbilt will win, and will likely win handily. With two
minutes left in the fourth quarter, expect to see senior sousaphone player John
Kidd line up under center (he'll go 1 for 2 for 15 yards before taking a
knee). This team is more focused than in the past, and isn't going to take
a bad team like Temple lightly. I like the 'Dores by 35, for once actually
playing up to their expectations against an inferior team.