PiRate Ratings For Thursday, October 5, 2006
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
# Team W L Rating
1 Ohio State 5 0 129
2 Southern Cal 4 0 127
3 Michigan 5 0 124
4 Texas 4 1 124
5 Clemson 4 1 122
6 California 4 1 122
7 Auburn 5 0 120
8 L S U 4 1 120
9 Florida 5 0 118
10 Louisville 4 0 118
11 Notre Dame 4 1 117
12 Oklahoma 3 1 117
13t Boise State 5 0 115
13t Nebraska 4 1 115
15 Wisconsin 4 1 115
16 Penn State 3 2 115
17 West Virginia 4 0 114
18t Georgia Tech 4 1 113
18t Tennessee 4 1 113
20 Florida State 3 1 113
21 Texas Tech 4 1 112
22 B Y U 3 2 111
23 Georgia 5 0 110
24 Iowa 4 1 110
25 Virginia Tech 4 1 110
SEC PiRate Ratings
East
Florida 5 0 118
Tennessee 4 1 113
Georgia 5 0 110
South Carolina 3 2 104
Kentucky 3 2 100
Vanderbilt 2 3 99
West
Auburn 5 0 120
L S U 4 1 120
Alabama 3 2 109
Arkansas 3 1 107
Miss. State 1 4 91
Ole Miss 1 4 91
Future Vandy Opponents
Duke 0 4 81
This Week’s Interesting
Schedule
This will be a week where we will see
some considerable changes in the national title picture and several conference
races. Additionally, we should see
a couple of teams work there way onto the good side of the bowl bubble, while
other teams will begin to realize that their season is headed down the
tubes.
Here are the SEC games for the week.
West Virginia @ Mississippi State
PiRate Predicts: West Virginia 30
Mississippi State 10
PiRate Predicts: Mountaineers withstand Deep South heat and humidity and
defeat the Bulldogs after a closer than expected first 30
minutes.
This game should be interesting for a
little while. The Bulldogs don’t
give up much on the ground; they are really weak against the pass. West Virginia’s bread and butter is
their running attack, but the Mountaineers can throw the ball too.
WVU’s schedule to date is nothing to get
excited about with wins over Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland, and East
Carolina. Mississippi State has
already played Auburn and LSU, so this game won’t put a scare in the
Maroons.
I think Mississippi State will reach
double figures in scoring in this game, and they actually have a chance to make
it closer than it’s supposed to be.
I actually think West Virginia will struggle to pull away and ice this
game. My guess is the Mountaineers
will only win this won by 10-12 points, and the total score will be higher than
expected.
Duke @ Alabama
PiRate Predicts: Alabama 34
Duke 0
Peiser Predicts: Tide can name the score. Duke may not be able to beat Temple
right now.
This will be the strongest defense that
Duke has faced to date. That’s
excruciatingly bad news, because the Blue Devils have managed just 13 points in
four games. Duke’s 37.5 yards per
game rushing would rank among the all-time worst rushing averages since
statistics were first kept if it stays that way for the entire season.
John Parker Wilson should rip apart the
Duke secondary, while the Tide rushing attack enjoys a decent day. Duke’s defense isn’t half bad, but they
will get absolutely no help from their offense. Look for Alabama to score on long drives
and keep their defense on the sideline.
I believe the PiRate computer is about right on this
one.
Arkansas @ Auburn
PiRate Predicts: Auburn 31
Arkansas 12
Peiser Predicts: The PiRates are right on this
one.
I’m going with the PiRates on this
one. I think Arkansas is going to
have a tough time moving the ball against Auburn Saturday. The Hogs cannot give Mitch Mustain enough pass
protection, and he is likely to throw an untimely interception that will put the
Tigers in scoring position.
Auburn isn’t going to destroy opponents
with their offense, but their defense can set things up to make the offense more
effective. I think Auburn will hold
Arkansas to about 10 points and win by close to three
touchdowns.
South Carolina @ Kentucky
PiRate Predicts: Kentucky 28
South Carolina 27
Peiser Predicts: Gamecocks pull out a close one on the
road.
The winner of this game can go ahead and
make bowl plans. It will be the
fourth victory for the winner, and both of these teams have two or more winnable
games remaining.
Kentucky averages more than 30 points
per game, even though they average just 337 yards of total offense. Expect the Wildcats to be held under
those averages this week.
South Carolina isn’t going to blow the
‘Cats off their home field, and I foresee the Gamecocks winning a close game
with a score of something like 27-24.
L S U @ Florida
PiRate Predicts: Florida 17
LSU 13
Peiser Predicts: LSU wins a
good one in Gainesville.
If you believe that Auburn’s Jordan Hare
Stadium is worth more than four points a game to the home team, then you must
also believe LSU is the best team in the SEC West this
year.
If
you believe that history repeats itself, then you might think Urban Meyer
will lead Florida to an unbeaten season in year two at the Gators’
command.
I believe that LSU is the most talented
team in the SEC, and they are just a little too strong for Florida. The Tiger defense should solve the Tim
Tebow single wing riddle this week, and force Chris Leak to throw the ball
quicker than he is accustomed to throw.
Marcus Randall is an amazing physical
specimen. At 6-6 and 252 pounds,
he’s often bigger than the defenders trying to sack him. In what should be a relatively low
scoring game, but not as low as some recent SEC dandies, look for LSU to come
away with a huge road win and throw the SEC East standings into a three-way race
once again.
I’m going against the PiRates and
predicting LSU to win a close game—something like 21-17.
Tennessee @ Georgia
PiRate Predicts: Georgia 17
Tennessee 14
Peiser Predicts: Vols pick up big win on the road to stay in thick of SEC
East race.
We all know how much a great quarterback
can affect a game. We all know how
much a weak quarterback can hamper his team’s progress.
Tennessee quarterback Erik Ainge is
enjoying a huge turnaround season to date, leading the Volunteer offense to a 32
point and 429 yards total offense averages. Georgia is going back to Joe Tereshinski
after failing to move the ball with Joe Cox and Matthew Stafford. Tereshinski has been injured since early
in the season.
If Georgia could only manage 14 points
against lowly Colorado and Ole Miss teams, how can they top that against a
Tennessee defense that is giving up 284 total yards per
game.
LaMarcus Coker has emerged as a
prime-time back after topping 100 yards rushing the last two games. Of course, he faced Marshall and
Memphis. Georgia is much better,
giving up just 100 rushing yards per game.
This game will stay close, because
that’s the only way Georgia can win it.
The PiRate computer says the Bulldogs are just a tad bit better and will
win by a field goal. I think the
obvious advantage at quarterback will allow Tennessee to come away with major
road win to leave three SEC East teams with one conference loss apiece. My guess is Tennessee will win a close
battle.
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
PiRate Predicts: Vanderbilt 20
Ole Miss 16
Peiser Predicts: Rebels foil Vandy’s chance to get to 3-3 in an exciting
game.
The loser of this game will be relegated
to the bottom of the SEC with Mississippi State. These teams have some similarities. Both teams are having trouble with their
passing games. They have two new
quarterbacks who are presently better running the ball than passing it. Both teams have improved defenses with
top middle linebackers.
The PiRate ratings say Vanderbilt is
going to win its first conference game of the season and even their record at
3-3. However, I think this is one
of those ambush games coming up.
Vanderbilt has played one exceptionally
good team, two mediocre teams, and two patsies. Ole Miss has played three undefeated
teams, one improving team, and one patsy, who is better than both of the patsies
Vandy played.
I will go into further detail in
tomorrow’s game preview, but my guess is Ole Miss will win a game that will be
as close as the Vandy-Alabama and Vandy-Arkansas
games.
10 Other Games of
Note
M T S U Vs. Louisville at LP Field in
Nashville
PiRate Predicts: Louisville 42
MTSU 14
Peiser Predicts: Cardinals win easily but not like Oklahoma did against
the Blue Raiders
MTSU may be sky high for this game, but
that will last one possession.
After that, Louisville should control the game on both sides of the
ball. The Blue Raiders are
outmanned in this one, and it could get ugly. The Cardinals will not let up with the
game being nationally televised Friday night.
I look for MTSU to score only once or
twice, while Louisville scores almost at will. I actually think the outcome could be
worse than what the PiRate says.
Call it 49-10 Cardinals.
Indiana @ Illinois
PiRate Predicts: Illinois 35
Indiana 24
Peiser Predicts: Illini have a chance to win second of possible three in
a row.
Ron Zook now knows how the other side
feels. After watching Sylvester
Croom's and his Mississippi State Bulldogs end his first coaching job at
Florida, Zook’s Illini just printed the pink slip that will be delivered to John
L. Smith at Michigan State.
Indiana has been going through some
rough times with head coach Terry Hoeppner and his medical troubles. Hopefully, those are behind him
now.
Illinois is just a little better both
offensively and defensively than Indiana.
Toss in home field advantage, and the Illini should win the game, but not
by as much as the PiRate computer says.
I say Illinois wins by a touchdown (28-21).
Clemson @ Wake Forest
PiRate Predicts: Clemson 31
Wake Forest 17
Peiser Predicts: Bowden’s Tigers are on a roll and could run the
table.
The 5-0 start for Wake Forest equals
their start of 1987 and is the best since the 1944 team won its first
seven. That record is safe, because
the Demon Deacons are going to suffer their first defeat this week.
Clemson is just one play from being 5-0
as well, and the Tigers have played a tougher schedule than Wake. Clemson is averaging 43 points per game
and 447 yards per game. Wake Forest
has a good defense, but the Deacs cannot shut down the Tigers. While I don’t think Clemson will blow
Wake Forest out of Groves Stadium, I do think they will win by two
touchdowns.
Washington @ Southern California
PiRate Predicts: Southern Cal 44
Washington 14
Peiser Predicts: Trojans play their best game since the slaughter over
Arkansas and romp over much improved Huskies.
Washington has won three games in a row
for Coach Tyrone Willingham and is 4-1 with a good chance to become bowl
eligible this year. Win number five
is not forthcoming this week.
Southern Cal is due for a big game, and the Trojans should move the ball
with ease at The Coliseum, where they just don’t
lose.
The 30-point spread that the PiRates
give this game may not be enough if USC gets hot. They really don’t have another tough
game until Oregon comes to LA on November 11 for the start of a rough three game
stretch that will include Cal and Notre Dame.
I think The Men of Troy will break loose
and look more like the team that opened the season against Arkansas. Look for USC to win by as much as five
touchdowns.
Texas Vs. Oklahoma at Cotton Bowl in
Dallas
PiRate Predicts: Texas 27
Oklahoma 20
Peiser Predicts: Mack gets second consecutive win over Stoops, but it
will be much, much closer than last year (maybe in
OT).
This is the first year since 1999 that
at least one of the participants in the Red River Shootout wasn’t undefeated
coming into this game. Texas has
lost only to unbeaten and top-ranked Ohio State, while Oklahoma owns only a
controversial loss at undefeated Oregon.
Even though the national championship
isn’t probably on the line, this should be an exciting game worth watching. Both teams have good offenses, but Texas
has a much better defense than the Sooners. Oklahoma has played the tougher
schedule, only because the Longhorns have faced North Texas, Rice, and Sam
Houston.
Texas should pull out a second
consecutive win in this series, but this will be a close game. I’m guessing the ‘horns hook’em with a
late score.
Michigan State @ Michigan
PiRate Predicts: Michigan 37
Michigan State 14
Peiser Predicts: John L. Smith is a nice guy, and we know what Leo
Durocher thought of those people.
He should make another school a nice offensive coordinator next
year.
Michigan has won this game in overtime
the last two years. It shouldn’t be
that close this season, but the Spartans have extra motivation trying to save
their coach’s job (it apparently has already been terminated effective the end
of the season).
I look for the Spartans to pile up 375
yards of offense and 21 points, but it won’t be enough to win the game. Michigan is playing consistently this
year, and they will match or exceed MSU’s total offense. The Wolverines make the most out of
every yard they gain, so they should score about 20 more
points.
Nebraska @ Iowa State
PiRate Predicts: Nebraska 27
Iowa State 18
Peiser Predicts: Cornhuskers aren’t all the way back, but they are
getting close. They win by 14 or
more.
Iowa State just barely squeezed by
Northern Iowa last week, while Nebraska went to overtime to beat Kansas. The last two years, this has been a
close ball game, but this year the Cornhuskers have too much muscle for the
Cyclones.
Nebraska is still using the West Coast
offense, but they are rushing the ball for over 200 yards per game so far. Iowa State will have to stop the run,
and to do that, they will leave themselves vulnerable to the pass.
I look for Nebraska to pile up 170 yards
rushing and 250 yards passing and score in the 30’s. Iowa State cannot match that and will
fall at home by two touchdowns
Missouri @ Texas Tech
PiRate Predicts: Texas Tech 24
Missouri 16
Peiser
Predicts: Red Raiders win in
possibly the most intriguing game of the weekend.
Missouri puts its unblemished record on
the line this week, and like Wake Forest, I expect them to taste defeat for the
first time. Texas Tech is going to
win this game by a lot more than people are expecting them to win. The PiRates say the Red Raiders are
eight points better, but I think this will be a double digit win for Mike Leach
and company.
Missouri hasn’t faced a decent passing
attack yet, and they won’t be able to slow it down. Texas Tech may not get 400 total yards
in this game, but they will surpass 350 yards and 25 points. Missouri will find it hard scoring
against the Red Raiders’ improved defense.
Call it a 27-13 win in Lubbock for the home
team.
Oregon @ California
PiRate Predicts: Cal 38
Oregon 33
Peiser Predicts: If the previous game is the most intriguing, this one
should be the most exciting game of the weekend. Bears make Tennessee look better every
week.
The winner of this game gets to face USC
later in the season with a chance to win the Pac-1o title if they can pull off
the upset. On paper, Oregon looks
strong enough to win at Cal and at USC, but California is tough to beat in
Berkeley.
I think this game will come down to
which team blinks, makes the crucial mistake at the wrong time, or comes up with
the big play at the right time. If
they played 100 times at Cal, I think the Bears would win somewhere between 55
and 60 of those games, so I’m taking Jeff Tedford’s club to win Saturday’s most
exciting game on a late score.
Nevada @ Hawaii
PiRate Predicts: Hawaii 48
Nevada 42
Peiser Predicts: Too bad this one plays while the Continental US
sleeps. Warriors and Wolf Pack hook
up in a shootout, but the pistol comes up a tad
short.
This should be the highest scoring game
of the day, and both teams should gain well over 400 total yards. Unless you have insomnia, you’ll have to
wait until Sunday morning to find out which WAC team still has a chance to
compete with Boise State for league honors.
Hawaii is two different teams. On the mainland, they are slightly
better than mediocre. On the
island, they play more like a Top 25 team.
For Nevada, this is their fourth road game. If they could slip by with the mild
upset, they might sail all the way to the finale at home with Boise State with a
chance to take the WAC. I think
they will come close, but Hawaii is too tough at Aloha
Stadium.
And The Rest
Predicted
Winner Loser Margin
Florida St. N.C. State 11
Utah T C U 1
Wisconsin Northwestern 22
Iowa Purdue 9
Pittsburgh Syracuse 6
Miami (F) N. Carolina 21
Ga. Tech Maryland 19
Ohio State Bowling Green 49
Kent State Temple 23
Ball State Buffalo 16
Kansas State Oklahoma State 5
Kansas Texas A&M 3
B Y U San Diego St. 28
Rice Tulane 4
Navy Air Force 1
Notre Dame Stanford 39
Washington St. Oregon St. 4
U C L A Arizona 10
Penn State Minnesota 2
Colorado St. U N L V 22
Idaho N. Mexico St. 5
Virginia East Carolina 1
Cincinnati Akron 4
Colorado Baylor 6
U A B Memphis 8
Western Mich. Ohio U 7
Toledo Central Mich. 5
S. Florida Connecticut 11
Wyoming New Mexico 1
Boise State La. Tech 35
Fresno St. Utah St. 25
U T E P S M U 8
N. Texas Fla. Int'l 2
Houston La-Lafayette 19
Arkansas St. La-Monroe 11
Northern Ill. Miami (O) 2