JW: There are quite a few quality games this week,
which made picking them lots of fun, even though it also means I'm most likely
not going to do as well as I've done in the past. I'm still
second-guessing myself about the Vandy/Ole Miss pick, and will be even well
after the game is over (no matter what the final outcome is). I'd like to
take this opportunity to point out one of the main reasons why I love college
football much more than the NFL (which I also enjoy): the potential every week
of upsets. Let's face it - when a bad NFL team meets up with a good or
great NFL team, the only question is how wide the margin of victory will
be. Steve Spurrier might have one day said "there are no Vanderbilts in
the NFL," and while I agree with him, I don't think we agree with what he
meant. There are no Vanderbilts in the NFL, because generally, the teams
you can count on beating never give you much of a fight. On any given week
in college football, you can see a winless team take an unbeaten team down to
the wire, see a team with inferior talent put together a magical bowl run.
What do you see in the NFL? The Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans
(sorry, but you know it's true) losing week after week, occasionally winning a
game against one of their fellow terrible teams. For my money, college
football will always be the most satisfying sport to follow. Now, let's
make some poorly-reasoned, short on analysis picks!
MO: I have to agree that there isn’t anything like
college football, but for other reasons, like the pageantry, the traditions and
the unbridled and unconditional passion that fans have for their teams. But
mostly, it has to be… the bands! And I can still remember the gameday
mornings as a Spirit of Gold member. Nothing like slipping on a heavy,
non-breathing wool jacket, stank from last week’s afternoon game, after hours of
pregame rehearsal, then stepping out into the warm Nashville afternoon sun to
stand on metal bleachers for four hours. Ah, memories. As bad as it
might sound, though, college football wouldn’t be the same without the
bands. That said, I’m happy making these picks from a nice, comfortable
chair in the nice, cool A/C. Let’s get to ‘em!
West Virginia @ Mississippi State
MO: I’ll wager this looked like a much better game to
West Virginia when they scheduled it years ago. This is the SEC’s shot to
take at West Virginia this year to show what happens when a Big East power plays
a team from a real football conference. Unfortunately for the SEC, their
representative is a team that’s in the bottom of Div. 1 for most offensive
categories. I think the ‘Dawgs will hang tough for a quarter or two, but
ultimately wilt in Starkville, losing to the Mountaineers by 24.
JW: West Virginia likes to run. Mississippi
State is without its best defensive tackle. Even if State can stop the
run, the Mountaineers have a pretty good quarterback, Patrick White (Daphne High
School, represent!), who's starting to catch his stride. Starkville has
been a very accommodating place to opposing teams, where the Bulldogs have been
shut out twice and lost to Tulane. Don't expect any trends to change this
weekend. WVU by 30.
Duke @ Alabama
JW: Let's see...Alabama beat Vanderbilt by a
touchdown, lost a close one to Arkansas, and lost fairly decisively to
Florida. Obviously, the Crimson Tide hasn't been playing up to fan
expectations (at least, not Bama fan expectations). Duke, however, has
played to their expectations, losing to everyone they've played (although, to be
fair, they only lost to Wake Forest by a point). Judging by the past two
Duke games, the Blue Devils seem content to have their one close loss, and
proceed to be blown out by everyone else. Bama needs to get back on the
winning track, and Duke, probably near the very bottom of all Div-IA teams,
won't pose much of a problem. Tide by 35.
MO: You’d think that all the bad press has to be
getting to the Duke players, right? I mean, these kids can’t be dumb – it’s
Duke. I think Bama’s got a good team this year, but I have to think that
Duke’s coming into the game hungry to show that they’re not as bad as everyone
says they are. The problem for the Blue Devils, however, is simple –
they’re just as bad as everyone says that are. I think they’ll keep it
close in the first quarter, but after that, it’s all Tide, eventually winning by
27.
Arkansas @ Auburn
MO: It’s been a crazy year for Arkansas. They
squeak out a win in Nashville riding the shoulders of their freshman QB and a
friendly gust of wind. Then they make up for a bad game by that same QB
and win a game in double OT marred by missed kicks galore. For Auburn,
it’s been same old, same old – win big against the weaker opponents and do what
you have to against the strong ones. They came back from South Carolina
victorious, despite the game being closer than most think. I think they’ll
get another close game this week, especially since Arkansas has had a week off
to prepare. Also bear in mind that the Auburn showdown with Florida looms
large next week and might me pressing harder on the Plainsmen’s minds than the
Hogs. I’ll say the Tiger hold off a late push by the Hogs, winning by
9.
JW: Arkansas has shown it can be very scrappy.
They're not a great team, but they'll give people some headaches. They've
also caught some pretty lucky breaks from time to time
(*cough*fumbleruledincompletepass*cough*), but they deserve credit for being 3-1
this year. Auburn's breathing a sigh of relief after escaping South
Carolina with a W and keeping its title hopes intact. Auburn might be
overlooking the Hogs, but I think Tuberville's too mad at the team for their
performance against the Gamecocks. Auburn will be motivated to play, and
the crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium will be loud. I like Auburn here by
14.
South Carolina @ Kentucky
JW: This could be a good game. South Carolina
isn't too great, and Kentucky is, by most accounts, playing beyond its
expectations. Sure, Spurrier's squad is the better team, talent-wise, but
I think the Wildcats might be able to put a scare into the Gamecocks. The
only game where South Carolina has put up a good amount of points without having
a scare on the defensive end of the ball was Florida Atlantic, and let's face it
- Mike and I could probably put up a fair amount of points against Florida
Atlantic (Mike's got good pocket presence, and I've been known to run a flawless
route from time to time). However, South Carolina sure put the scare into
Auburn, and it looks like the Gamecocks have found a good QB in Newton.
Kentucky doesn't have many impressive wins, but the difference this year is that
they have wins, including that blowout of Ole Miss. I like Kentucky to
keep this game tight, but I think the Auburn game shows that South Carolina has
been improving this season. I'm picking the Gamecocks by 3.
MO: Money play! This is how it would go against
FAU: two wide on each side, Jay goes long down the left sideline, Mike goes
back in the seven-step drop, dodges a tackle, throws a bomb, caught in stride by
Jay who takes it in for the score. Yep, I think this game’s such an easy
pick, I’ve written all of that in lieu of actual analysis!! South Carolina
looks like they’ve started hitting they’re stride – they scored 20 on an Auburn
team that only allowed LSU to score three points. Spurrier looks like he
made the right choice (finally!) at QB, and it’s about to start paying off in
spades. Look for Newton to outdo himself at Kentucky, possibly raising the
bar a bit too high for tougher tests later this season. South Carolina by
17.
Clemson @ Wake Forest
MO: Wake Forest has looked fantastic this season and
stands as the only undefeated team in the ACC. While that shows in part
how weak the ACC has been so far, it also shows that the Demon Deacons have
learned how to win and have earned great karma for signing the long-term game
contract with Vanderbilt. The Clemson Tigers have looked great as well,
beating Florida St. in Week 3 then pounding their next two opponents by scoring
50 in each game. While Wake hasn’t really beaten anyone this season (their
biggest win is a 24-point victory over an admittedly weak Ole Miss team), I like
their chances. I think the team understands that this is a statement game
for them and could propel them to being one of the top t teams in the conference
this season. I think the home fans celebrate the biggest football victory
for Wake in years, as their team upsets Clemson by 6.
JW: You know, I think you're right about the karma
thing. Wake Forest definitely owes Vanderbilt big if they go to a bowl
this year. However, I'm not as bold (read: insane) as you to pick Wake
over Clemson. It'll be a pretty close game, but Wake simply won't be able
to overcome the talent of Clemson, even at home. It's a shame, too,
because I really like the Deacons' story. They're looking for their first
6-0 start in 62 years, one of only 9 unbeaten teams left in Div. I-A, a school
not known for its football prowess, and so on. I'm also aware of Clemson's
propensity in the past to play well, be highly ranked, then blow it.
Clemson has steamrolled the competition lately and has some quality wins under
its belt. Wake Forest has beaten some pretty soft teams, with Clemson
being their first major test. I still think Wake's a great story here, but
the Tigers pull off the victory by 13.
Oregon @ California
JW: Oregon looks to continue its unbeaten streak, and
Cal hopes to keep headed in the right direction and show that the UT loss was a
huge fluke. People can question Oregon's win against Oklahoma all they
want, but they did look like a good team, and were obviously pretty evenly
matched with the Sooners. They then came back and proved themselves to be
legit by pounding Arizona State. California has been chugging along with
their offense, and also has a pounding of Arizona State under its belt.
This should be a fun game to watch, with both teams having some potent offensive
weapons (wow, what a great sportswriting cliche!). Both Oregon and Cal are
trying to prove they're for real, but I think Oregon pulls off the "upset"
thanks to a superior rushing game, complemented well by a good pass
attack. I'll take the Ducks by 7.
MO: I think that Oregon’s better than most think, but
then again, I think that Cal is WAY better than they showed in Week 1. Yep,
Oregon’s got a controversial win against Oklahoma and they both have an
over-rated stomping of Arizona St. (this is Pac-10 football after all). I
honestly think this could go either way, and I could analyze this to a high
degree, but I don’t think there’s any one trait that’s going to separate these
teams enough to pick a clear winner. Both teams have great offenses, and
I’m guessing that we’re looking at a shoot-out, with Cal winning (in OT!!) by
6.
Texas @ Oklahoma
MO: Texas is the highest-ranked one-loss team in the
country, while Oklahoma is STILL fuming over an onside kick. This is a far
cry from the Sooner domination that we’d seen prior to last year’s undefeated
run by the Longhorns. Even though both teams will keep the ball on the
ground, this should be a high-scoring match-up and won’t disappoint any who tune
in (which I’m sure will include a vast majority of the Big 12 nation). I’m
going to take Texas in this one, mostly because I’m tired of hearing the
Oklahoma whining and would hate for them to point to a ref’s call as the only
reason they didn’t have an undefeated season. The real UT by 11.
JW: I like your reasoning behind the Texas pick.
Oklahoma's looking good, having played a really good Oregon team close and
losing on an (admittedly) bad call or two by the referees. But I've
complained enough about their complaining, so I'll just stick to this
matchup. Both teams have what it takes to finish the season with the loss
they already have as their only one for the year. Texas has plowed through
all their (admittedly weak) opponents, with the only loss coming from consensus
#1 Ohio State. But when you're ranked as highly as you are, going into a
game of that magnitude, you have to put up more than just 7 points. And I
think that's ultimately why I'm picking Oklahoma here. Texas is a good
team, no doubt, but I think Oklahoma is better. Adrian Peterson is going
to set the tone early and just keep running all over Texas. The Longhorns
will play tough, running and passing, but in the end, I'm going with the Sooners
to win it by 6.
Tennessee @ Georgia
JW: I'm just not sold on Georgia (and I think more and
more people are joining me, here). They squeaked by both Ole Miss and
Colorado, destroyed UAB and WKU, and shut out South Carolina early this
season. I guess they really haven't done much to justify dropping in the
polls, but I still think they're overrated. Then again, UT hasn't done
much to impress either, losing to its only SEC opponent, Florida, by one.
I like Georgia's home-field advantage, but we all know the Vols fans travel
well. Tennessee will come ready to play, and I think they have the guns to
take out the Bulldogs. Eric Ainge is throwing like a madman, and Georgia
still has its quarterback "controversy," and the offense just hasn't looked that
great. It'll be a fun game to watch, but only as fun as watching Tennessee
win can be. Volunteers by 10.
MO: Joe T’s coming back, and none too soon for the
Bulldogs, whose offensive woes have been well-documented and have actually made
the Ole Miss defense look good. Tennessee has looked good this season,
despite going just 5-6 last year (including a 24-28 loss to Vanderbilt at home,
and yes, I absolutely LOVE being able to work that into the column each
week). Ainge has looked good throwing the ball, and the offense is clicking
under Cutcliffe. Here’s the thing though – defenses win games, and
Georgia’s just plain better on that side of the ball. In addition, they get
to the underrated “No respect” card! I have to say that I’m shocked that
Georgia is the underdog in this game, despite being undefeated, AT HOME, and
playing a team that already has a loss (in their own house, no less) and is
ranked lower than they in the polls. I think they’re ready to show the
nation that the Bulldogs are better than anyone thinks, and will roll over the
Vols, winning by 13.
LSU @ Florida
MO: Three SEC home teams are two-point underdogs
(Georgia, Florida, and Ole Miss), and this will be the best game of all of
them. Florida has grown under Urban Meyer and is putting out one of the
better Florida teams we’ve seen in a while. LSU, on the other hand, is
still dominating most of their opponents thanks to their overwhelming talent
advantage. When facing unranked teams (all of which were at home), LSU has
scored an average of 47 points while allowing under 8 per game. The bad
news is they’ve only scored three against ranked opponents on the road this
season, even with JaMarcus Russell at QB. In last year’s game in
Louisiana, the home time won a tight game the week before a showdown at
Auburn. The planets are aligned for the same scenario to unfold as the
Gators, one week before their showdown at Auburn, beat the Bayou Bengals at home
by 4.
JW: I think this is the game where LSU really
clicks. They've learned from the trip to Auburn where they only put up
three points, and JaMarcus Russell will be determined to put up some
numbers. Yes, Florida's looking really good this year, and they've played
some higher-quality opponents, but I'm going to dispute your astrological claim
and say the planets are instead aligned for LSU to pull off the win. Look
for the LSU defense to clamp down on Florida, and LSU to steal one away from the
Gators in Gainesville. It'll be very close because of the talent both
these teams have, but I'm going with LSU by 3.
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
JW: This game has been eating at me all week.
Vanderbilt, favored to beat Ole Miss in Oxford? We should be thrilled,
right? I mean, it shows that our team is finally making strides and can
obviously play with anyone. However, we don't need a line to tell us
that's true - we know Vanderbilt is a better team than most people think - this
year, we have a solid defense, a pretty decent running game, and an athletic
quarterback. But being the traditional Vandy fan I am, I know what happens
when I get overly optimistic. And that's what bothers me about this
game. There's too much going for us. We're favored. We have a
great defense matching up against an inept Ole Miss offense. We've played
well in Oxford in the past. We beat Ole Miss last year. Bobby Johnson is a far superior coach to Ed Orgeron. The list goes on and
on. That's way too much good stuff for a self-respecting Vandy fan to
handle. Combine that with the fact that our players and coaches
undoubtedly know that if we want to go to a bowl game, we have to win this game,
and I think we have a recipe for disaster.
However, I think we just might pull it off. Despite their showing
against Georgia, they could only muster 9 total points. I'd like to think
our defense combined with their offense can keep the Ole Miss score down, and
surely our offense can at least run the ball down their throats. I'm still
very hesitant about this game, but Vanderbilt has shown in the past that it
doesn't have a problem playing on the road. Ole Miss, however, has a
problem playing anywhere. I like Vandy here, and I'm probably jinxing us
by saying it, but I say the 'Dores win it by 7.
MO: I just don’t know where to begin on this
one. I could start with the fact that Ole Miss has lost to every team
they’ve face not named “Memphis”. I could note that the rushing defense
performance last week that some Rebels have called “turning the corner” was
actually two and a half times WORSE than that of a Colorado team that hasn’t won
in nearly a year (that’s 133 yards allowed by Ole Miss vs. 54 given up by the
Buffs). I could point out that the Ole Miss defensive line will be playing
without two starters and could quite possibly play another starter who was
recently in the hospital for falling down a flight of stairs. And this
against a running attack that has accrued 160 yards per game in SEC play ALONE,
and is getting better with each game.
Normally, that would scare me. I’d think this was jinxing the team and
that Ole Miss might surprise us. But here’s the thing – despite all the
overwhelming facts stated above, Ole Miss actually gained confidence by their
performance against Georgia, comparatively subpar to Colorado (again, WINLESS
this season) as it might have been. So, while Ole Miss is coming off a loss
that is quite possibly building a false sense of confidence, Vanderbilt is
coming off of two straight 29-point wins after which they understand that they
can still play better and are hungry to do so. Ole Miss is going to be
primed to avenge last season’s loss, and they’ll be playing at home, but those
are the only two edges they have in this game. While the quarterback battle
is close to a wash (even though VU’s Nickson has better stats in most
categories), everything else for once leans in Vanderbilt’s favor. I don’t
think this one is close. I think Jackson-Garrison has a career day and
Nickson breaks two runs of over 20 yards on the option. Jay’s gonna need to
anti-jinx this one on the boards BIG TIME, but I’m saying it anyway – Vanderbilt
scores early and often, holding off a late Rebel push but still winning by a
comfortable 17 points.