MO: After going through the drudgery that was making
last week’s picks following the Ole Miss loss, I have to say that I’m looking at
the picks in a whole new light. The Kool-Aid seems to be going around at a
good clip, and a lot of the posters are excited about this week’s
game. Since we’ve never beaten Spurrier, why not get one more long,
embarrassing streak out of the way? I, for one, would especially love to
see a win on Saturday, as it will be the only chance the Mrs. Dr. MO and I have
a chance to see the team live (we’ll be the obnoxiously cute couple in the
alumni band). With that said, there are a good number of interesting games
this week, both in and out of conference, and we’ll have plenty of time to
dissect the Commodore game at the end of them. Onward!
JW: The Georgia win was the first game this year I was
unable to watch/listen to/view updated stats for at least a half. The same
thing happened last year for the UT game. I turned on my computer at the
first chance I had during BOTH the UT and Georgia games to see that we had
won. I'm sure many of you are hoping that from here on out, I simply won't
be witnessing any more Vandy games, but I simply can't bring myself to do that,
even for the good of the team. They're just going to have to overcome my
jinx themselves and win their own games...there's only so much I can do!
Alas, I won't be seeing the game in person, marking the first homecoming I've
missed since 2000 (stupid law school + lack of money), but I certainly hope
there'll be a big crowd in black and gold (and can someone snag a Jay Cutler
bobblehead for me, please?). For everyone going to homecoming, drive/fly
safely, and have a great time! Now, let's do some picks!
Mississippi State @ Georgia
MO: This ought to be fun – a team fresh off their
second win of the season faces off against another team that just suffered their
second loss of the season. Mississippi St. got enjoy a smattering of
success after pasting Jacksonville St. at home last week. The only
problem? They’re heading into a lions’ den in Athens. After losing to
Vanderbilt 24-22 last week (yep, I’ll be milking that one for the rest of the
season, too!), the ‘Dawgs have to be motivated to get back into the win
column. Of course, that’s what we said last week since they were coming off
of a loss to UT, but this time it’s different. This time, it’s VANDERBILT
that’s sticking in their craw, and I don’t care how good we are, I’m not sure
there’s anything that bugs an SEC team more than losing to
Vanderbilt. We’re going to see the Bulldog offense start to click this week
after what I’m sure have been the most intense practices in Georgia history, and
they defend their home field, winning by 27.
JW: I walked by a car parked a block away from my house
here in DC, and noticed it had a prominently-displayed Georgia sticker and a UGA
license plate. Anyone watching me would've thought I was crazy because I
started grinning ear to ear and even chuckling a little bit to myself. I
was really tempted to hang out for a while and see if I could have a few words
with the owner of the Bulldog-mobile, but I figured he/she might be on the verge
of suicide as it is, and a gloating (but friendly) Vandy fan might just put them
over the edge. I think you're right about the Bulldogs - they can't be
happy with the past couple of games, and what better way to get back to your
winning ways than to beat up on a pathetic Mississippi State team? I think
next time I'm depressed after a particularly rough week of classes, I'm firing
up NCAA Football '07, setting it to "very easy," and demolishing State
myself. Nickson to Bennett all day, baby! Anyway, Georgia's going to
get back on track, albeit briefly, against the other Bulldogs. UGA by
24.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
JW: Ah, to play the "what if" game. What if a
certain gust of wind hadn't caught a certain field goal attempt? What if
Houston Nutt hadn't called timeout? Would Arkansas be anywhere near first
place in the SEC West, or would a loss to Vandy in Nashville have demoralized
them so much that they couldn't bounce back? And to continue the trend -
what if Chris Nickson played all four quarters against Ole Miss? What if
Vanderbilt actually decided to find the end zone once or twice instead of
coughing up crucial turnovers? Would Ole Miss have even smaller hopes of
winning this game than they do in reality? The Vanderbilt win
notwithstanding, these two teams are going in completely opposite
directions. It is, of course, worth noting that the last time Arkansas was
in the Top 25, it was none other than Ole Miss who knocked them right back out,
with a 19-7 win in 2003. Of course, back then, the Rebels had Eli Manning
and David Cutcliffe. Now, they have Brent Schaeffer and Ed Orgeron.
Ole Miss might catch Arkansas napping, but luckily the Hogs can win this one in
their sleep. Arkansas by 14.
MO: Ok, so my dire predictions from the Ole
Miss/Alabama game didn’t come to fruition, but at least the Rebels lost last
week and the Dores picked up a huge win, so all is well in the
world. Arkansas comes into the game fresh off a stomping of SEMO, which was
immediately preceded by upsetting Auburn. As it stands right now, the
Razorbacks have a stranglehold on the SEC West, and it’s all thanks to the
offense. As much as we mocked moving a high school directly to offensive
coordinator, it’s worked as Arkansas is averaging nearly 400 yards of offense
each game. While there’s a chance they could be caught napping, their next
game is against Louisiana Monroe, so the chance is minimal. The Hogs get
the lead early and never look back, winning by 25.
Fresno State @ LSU
MO: Man, oh, man. After beating Nevada in their
season opener, Fresno St. has lost every single game it has played, including
falling to Hawaii last week by the oh-so-tight score of 68-37. They even
lost to Utah St., regularly mentioned as one of the worst teams in the country
(needless to say, it is the Aggies' only win so far this season). Things
don’t get much better as they head to Baton Rouge, where LSU has been tough all
season. LSU has won every home game they’ve played, outscoring their
opponents by a whopping 236-30 margin in only five games. Of course, they
have yet to really play anyone at home, and unfortunately for the Bulldogs, that
scenario plays out again this week. This might have a been a good match-up
when David Carr was around, but now it’s just a stomping. I’ll play the
averages and say that LSU wins by 41 (score: 47-6).
JW: There's nothing quite like a mid-season break from
a tough SEC schedule. LSU can essentially pick its score here, and I'm
finding it difficult to write anything of much substance here, so I'll just
mention that I find it hilarious that this is ESPN2's Saturday night game.
Seriously? You couldn't get better than Fresno State/LSU? Sure, I
know, Fresno State was supposed to be better than this at the beginning of the
season, but I'm sure they could've found a better game than this as the season
progressed. Yes, I'm a little bitter about Vanderbilt's lack of national
coverage (GamePlan doesn't count). Anyway, the only way Fresno State wins
this one is if the NCAA announces some huge, super-secret investigation that
ends up giving LSU the death penalty, effective immediately. Even then, I
wouldn't be surprised if the LSU Lambda Chi intramural team puts up a good
fight. Bayou Bengals by 35.
Tulane @ Auburn
JW: It's a good thing Auburn has a tune-up game like
this before they face...wait, let me check...Ole Miss? Ok, well, it's good
that Auburn has two tune-up games before they face...Arkansas State? Well,
it's good to have three tune-ups for...Georgia. Ok, that's it.
Looking at Auburn's remaining schedule, they're basically tuning up for what
they hope will be the SEC championship game. Sure, maybe some of these
remaining teams will put up a fight, but I certainly can't say that about
Tulane. A team that can't get by UTEP or Houston (or anyone from Texas,
for that matter) must be an awfully tempting victim for the Tigers. Auburn
by 38.
MO: Tulane is actually 1-1 vs. SEC teams this year –
unfortunately for them, the one win is against MS St. Auburn is coming off
an emotionally charged, tight win over Florida, and could be in for somewhat of
a letdown, but I don’t think enough of one to lose to this Tulane
team. They’ve still got to win every game this season and hope that
Arkansas goes into a tailspin to end the season, so they’ll be focused here,
taking an early lead and winning going away by 27.
Indiana @ Ohio State
MO: Two great stories out of the Big Ten – Ohio St.,
the undisputed #1 team in the country, faces a team that just upset Iowa and
whose coach underwent brain surgery just under a month ago. Indiana is
better than its record indicates (though they did lose a couple to inferior
teams earlier in the season). That said, this is Ohio St. I’d love to
say that if the game weren’t at the Horseshoe, the Hoosiers would have a shot,
but even though I don’t think it’s close. Ohio St. just has too much
firepower to overcome for Indiana to win this won. I think the first half
could be close, but in the end it’ll be Ohio St. pulling away, finally winning
by 24.
JW: I really do like the Indiana story this year...for
once, using the term "heroic" when it comes to something sports-related is
actually justified. Inspiring coaches and upset victories aside, we're all
painfully aware that OSU is going to be doing what it normally does, and will
likely send the Hoosiers packing with a loss. Much like Auburn, OSU has a
pretty light schedule for a while, but then it has the Michigan game to look
forward to (as I'm pretty sure we're ALL looking forward to). We can't
really say that the Buckeyes will be overlooking Indiana, since their next two
games are Minnesota and Illinois. OSU by 35.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
JW: It's interesting that one team is so favored in a
game where the two teams are so closely ranked. When you look at the stats
and schedule, it sort of makes sense, though. Clemson looks like the
better team, and they're playing at home. However, I don't buy how good
they are, based on the competition they've come up against. Sure, they
beat Wake Forest and Florida State, but what's left? A bunch of cupcake
wins and a loss to BC. Tech's results don't look much better, but they
played Notre Dame close, and had that great upset victory over Virginia
Tech. Sure, they struggled against a pretty bad Maryland team, but I can
excuse that because of an emotional letdown after such a big victory. The
Jackets are well-rested off a bye week and are probably enjoying the underdog
label - you know they're playing up the "disrespect" angle. Well, here's
some respect for Georgia Tech - I say they win by 10.
MO: You’ve gotta remember that Clemson was nearly
beaten by Wake Forest (they were trailing big in the waning moments of the third
quarter before a blocked punt changed everything). I really, really like
Georgia Tech, even if they are on the road. They’ve one their only road
game this season, a shocker against Virginia Tech. Both teams are leading
their respective divisions in the ACC, but Georgia Tech has yet to lose in
conference, and I don’t think they start here. Reggie Ball comes out like
gangbusters and leads the Jackets to yet another road victory, winning by 6.
Boston College @ Florida State
MO: Nothing makes a team feel better than beating Duke,
right? That’s just what Florida St. did last week, and looked good doing so
(then again, aside from Wake Forest, who doesn’t look good against
Duke?). The Seminoles are hosting a ranked Boston College team coming off a
win of their own, this one over a stumbling Virginia Tech team. Boston
College has not looked good on the road this season – in their two road games
they’ve lost to NC St. and eeked out a 7-point victory against Central
Michigan. On paper, this game should be tight, but I don’t think it will
be. Florida State should grab an early lead and hold off a charge by the
Eagles in the last few minutes, finally winning by 6.
JW: I would say BC would take this one, were it not
for the big possibility that their starting quarterback, Matt Ryan, will be out
with an ankle injury. If Ryan plays, I say BC wins the game against a
Florida State team that has yet to impress me, and wins relatively easily.
However, without Ryan, the Eagles have to rely on a sophomore who has seen very
little playing time. Considering how close these two teams are in terms of
talent, this makes all the difference, particularly playing in a hostile
environment in Tallahassee. I'm going with the odds and saying that Ryan
is out, and Florida State wins this one by 13.
Texas @ Nebraska
JW: Let me get this out of the way first: my
favorite place to watch Vanderbilt games in DC is Union Pub, which also happens
to be the home of the Nebraska Alumni Association. They come out in droves
for Nebraska games, making it next to impossible to watch anything else when the
Huskers are on. The UT/Nebraska game starts three hours before the
Vanderbilt game, so I have to admit I'm hoping for a Nebraska loss, because if
they win, there will be wall-to-wall celebrating Nebraska fans while I'm trying
to get the bartender to just put ONE TV on the Vandy game! So, I might be
a little biased with this pick. This should be a fun game, since each
team's biggest strength is basically countered by the opposing team's opposing
strength (did that make sense?). Texas has a powerful run defense, and
Nebraska has the best running game in the conference. I think ultimately
Texas's talent wins out, though Nebraska can use this game as preparation for
when the two teams might possibly meet later down the road in the Big 12
championship. Longhorns by 10.
MO: Football Rule #47: Never, ever trust Bill
Callahan in big games. In what could be a Big 12 Championship preview, the
Huskers come into this game with high hopes to knock off Texas. The only
problem? Their record’s not quite as nice as it looks. They’re
unbeaten in conference but their wins are over LA Tech, Nicholls St., Troy,
Kansas, Iowa St. and Kansas St. Those teams are averaging just over two
wins this season – not a real Murderer’s Row there. Look for Texas to come
out of the game as the only remaining unbeaten (in conference, anyway) team in
the Big 12. Jay, your Husker friends will be gone by the third quarter and
the Longhorns should have any easy time with this one, winning by 23.
Alabama @ Tennessee
MO: Ah, the third Sunday in October. The leaves
are turning, the air is getting crisp, and all the rednecks in maroon and orange
are at each others throats a touch more than normal. That’s right, it’s the
annual My State’s Better than Your State in an Inconsequential Sporting Event
Bowl, featuring UT and Bama fighting for state pride and supremacy. Last
year, the Bama defense (aided by the complete ineptitude of the Tennessee
offense) was responsible for the low-scoring Bama victory. However, it
looks like UT has gotten over a disappointing 2005, where they went 5-6,
including a 28-24 loss at home to VU. The offense is clicking, including a
50-point explosion against Georgia. The problem? They also gave up 33
points, the most scored by Georgia in any game against teams not named UAB (34
points) or Western Kentucky (48 points). Even with Bama coming off a near
loss to Ole Miss, I like their chance here. I think their defense will
surprise some people by going back to last years dominance, and the Tide offense
goes nuts against the Tennessee defense. In the end, we’ll get to see the
best type of UT fans (disappointed ones!) after Bama heads home a victor by
13.
JW: I think you just described exactly what I hope
will happen (aside from finding a way for both teams to lose), but it's not
necessarily what I *think* will happen. You have to imagine Alabama's
pretty relieved after the almost-debacle against Ole Miss. My Mom (the Ole
Miss grad) insists that this means the Rebels are finally getting it together,
and are showing potential of what they could be next season. I tend to
think it's more that Alabama's not that great. Tennessee's had a bye week
to let the defense figure out how to not put up 30-plus points to a mediocre
offense, and Alabama is hoping for the return of two of their top receivers,
Hall and Brown, who were injured against Ole Miss. This certainly won't be
the defensive struggle we witnessed last year. I think both teams will put
up some points, but Alabama's defense will be no match for a UT offense that is
really clicking. Although I can think of MANY preferable ways for this
game to turn out, I think Tennessee wins this one by 17.
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
JW: Spurrier's undefeated streak against Vanderbilt
has to come to an end sometime, doesn't it? Will this be the year? I
drank the Kool-Aid for the Ole Miss game and then said "none for me, thanks...
I'm driving" for the Georgia game, going with my mind and what little football
analytical skills I have. We all see how that turned out. So,
although the anti-jinx in me says I should pick South Carolina to guarantee us
the win, this week, I'm picking partly from the heart. I think this
Vanderbilt team is legitimately headed in the right direction, and a win against
the Gamecocks could make some serious national noise. It wasn't so long
ago that we were the feel-good team of 2005, but everyone jumped ship after that
horrible streak of losses. The team this year looks better and more
focused, and I think we have it in us to string together some solid wins.
It all started last week, and hopefully we can keep it going. South
Carolina's going to be tough, but I think our defense is ready to shut down
Newton. I expect Nickson to clean up his turnovers a little more and throw
it deep more often. I really think we can pull this off...and it's not
just the Kool-Aid talking. Commodores by 6.
MO: These days in Columbia, it’s more about Steve
Spurrier than it is about South Carolina. While Vanderbilt holds
back-to-back wins against South Carolina in ’98-’99, they’ve never beaten
Spurrier, be it at Duke, Florida, or now at USC. While famous for his
teams’ offense, a recent road winning streak has brought notice to a strong
defense which preaches when you go on the road, you pack your
defense. Their run defense was on display in last year’s game against
Vandy, holding the Commodores rushing attack to a meager 41 yards, despite over
300 yards passing by Jay Cutler.
But now, it’s all about balance. This year, behind a vaunted and
experience offensive line, Vanderbilt has found a running game, averaging right
at 150 yards per game, balanced with a decent and improving passing
game. South Carolina’s defense averages giving up nearly that much each
game, including a whopping 290 yards to a lowly Wofford team. I think that
the Commodores will find much greater success running the ball on Saturday than
in ‘05, the main benefit to the rush will lie in setting up the pass. Look
for Chris Nickson to have a great day, delighting the Homecoming crowd to the
tune of 200 yards or more with a couple long distance touchdowns. In the
end, instead of packing their defense, the Gamecocks will just be plain sent
packing, as the Commodores prevail at last on Homecoming, winning by 14.