PiRate Ratings For Thursday, October 26, 2006
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
# Team W L Rating
1 Ohio State 8 0 131
2 Michigan 8 8 124
3 Wisconsin 7 1 124
4 Texas 7 1 123
5 Clemson 7 1 123
6 U S C 6 0 122
7 California 7 1 121
8 L S U 6 2 121
9 Florida 6 1 119
10 Oklahoma 5 2 118
11 West Va. 7 0 117
12 Auburn 7 1 117
13 Nebraska 6 2 117
14 Louisville 7 0 116
15 Oregon 5 2 116
16 Arkansas 6 1 115
17 Tennessee 6 1 115
18 Notre Dame 6 1 114
19 B Y U 5 2 114
20 Rutgers 7 0 113
21 Boston Coll 6 1 113
22 Boise St. 8 0 112
23 Missouri 7 1 112
24 Penn St. 5 3 112
25 Wash. St. 5 3 111
26 Ariz. St. 4 3 111
27 Iowa 5 3 111
28 Va. Tech 5 2 110
29 Pittsburgh 6 2 110
30 Ga. Tech 5 2 110
SEC PiRate Ratings
East
Florida 6 1 119
Tennessee 6 1 115
South Carolina 5 2 108
Georgia 6 2 100
Vanderbilt 3 5 98
Kentucky 3 4 95
West
L S U 6 2 121
Auburn 7 1 117
Arkansas 6 1 115
Alabama 5 3 106
Ole Miss 2 6 94
Miss. State 2 6 91
PiRates Show Vandy Now Finishing: 1-7/4-8
. . . one or two games a week.
I’m changing things a little this week,
as it’s time to start looking at bowl possibilities. Thus, I will only give a brief synopsis
of the key games so I can devote more space to who might be going
where.
This Week’s
Schedule
SEC games for the week.
Florida International @ Alabama
PiRate Predicts: Alabama 42
FIU 9
Peiser Predicts: The Crimson Tide will rely on fundamentals and
ball-control to win by 25-28 points in a boring
game.
Louisiana Monroe @ Arkansas
PiRate Predicts: Arkansas 49
Louisiana Monroe 6
Peiser Predicts: The schedule continues to help the Hogs as they cruise
to a 4 TD lead in the first half and win by anything more than
that.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
PiRate Predicts: Kentucky 28
Mississippi State 27
Peiser Predicts: I’ve played this one over and over again in my head and
keep coming up with an exciting, high-scoring game. I can’t go against the PiRates
here. UK is still fighting for six
wins and a bowl and had an extra week to prepare. Cats should
win.
Auburn @ Ole Miss
PiRate Predicts: Auburn 26
Ole Miss 7
Peiser Predicts: Turbeville’s Tigers hold the Cardinal and Navy to under
250 yards and win by 17-21 in Tommy’s return to
Oxford.
Florida vs. Georgia at Jacksonville
PiRate Predicts: Florida 35
Georgia 16
Peiser Predicts: Georgia
fans better take an extra cocktail or two before this one. The Bulldogs are fading into the
sunset. Gators will win by
committing fewer mistakes and taking advantage of the mistakes Georgia
makes.
Tennessee @ South Carolina
PiRate Predicts: Tennessee 21
South Carolina 19
Peiser Predicts: The Vols get revenge but it won’t be easy. Tennessee will win by single digits
after Carolina stays within contention for 60
minutes.
Vanderbilt @ Duke
PiRate Predicts: Vanderbilt 19
Duke 10
Peiser Predicts: Duke will stay in this one until the end but the
Commodores should prevail with a big play or two. It should be closer than expected, and
if Vandy doesn’t show up at 100%, the Blue Devils could pull off a win that
demoralizes Bobby’s boys.
10 Other Games of
Note
Clemson @ Virginia Tech (Thursday Night)
PiRate Predicts: Clemson 24
Virginia Tech 17
Peiser Predicts: The Hokies will be sky high for this one and possibly
throw a monkey wrench into the ACC standings. This game could go either way and is
ripe for an upset.
U T E P @ Tulsa (Friday Night)
PiRate Predicts: Tulsa 45
UTEP 26
Peiser Predicts: Skelly Stadium should be rocking Friday Night as the
Golden Hurricane continue their drive to the C-USA West Title and second
consecutive C-USA crown with a 14+ point win.
Navy vs. Notre Dame @ Baltimore
PiRate Predicts: Notre Dame 34
Navy 24
Peiser
Predicts: No Brian Hampton for the Middies means the Irish could make this one a
blowout. Navy’s chances for a huge
upset are gone with their star quarterback out for the season.
B Y U @ Air Force
PiRate Predicts: BYU 42 Air
Force 31
Peiser
Predicts: Cougars have the MWC title in their back pockets with a win in this
one. They prevail by 7 to 12 points
in a game that could see 80 or more total points scored.
Texas @ Texas Tech
PiRate Predicts: Texas 28
Texas Tech 17
Peiser Predicts: The Longhorns are rolling toward a BCS bowl, but the Red
Raiders will be waiting in ambush.
Tech may lead this game as late as the early stages of the third quarter
before Texas comes from behind to win by eight to 14
points.
Texas A&M @ Baylor
PiRate Predicts: Texas A&M 27
Baylor 24
Peiser Predicts: The Bears will put up a great fight and have a chance to
win this one and stay in contention for a bowl bid, but A&M might be a tad
too strong. If Baylor can pull off
the upset, they are going bowling.
Southern Cal @ Oregon State
PiRate Predicts: USC 24
Oregon State 12
Peiser
Predicts: The Trojans take advantage of an extra week’s preparation to chew the
Beavers at Reser Stadium. USC wins
it by about what the PiRates predict.
Ohio U @ Kent State
PiRate Predicts: Kent State 35
Ohio 27
Peiser
Predicts: The Golden Flashes are on course for their first bowl berth since the
1972 Tangerine Bowl. They take the
East crown with a 10-16 point win.
Washington State @ U C L A
PiRate
Predicts: UCLA 16 Washington State
14
Peiser Predicts: This should be a great match at the Rose Bowl between the
Bruins’ offense and the Cougars’ defense.
Home team advantage is the deciding factor for the Bruins, as they win by
a thin margin in one of the most exciting games of the week.
M T S U @ Louisiana-Lafayette
PiRate Predicts: ULL 27 MTSU
24
Peiser Predicts: The Blue Raiders can pick up a major road win and have
just one big hurdle remaining in their attempt at getting to their first I-A
Bowl. I see two scenarios
here. Either MTSU will keep it
close and find a way to squeak by at the end, or ULL will cruise to a 10-14
point win. I’d say it’s 50-50, but
the PiRates say go with the home team.
Bowl
Projecting
Rather than list each bowl and try to
predict each match-up, I prefer to list each conference with the possible
bowl-eligible teams.
DISCLAIMER: Just like a publicly traded
corporation at quarterly earnings reporting time must say, the information
provided herein may include forward-looking statements relating to future events that
involve risks and uncertainties.
These statements are based upon a number of assumptions and estimates
which are subject to significant uncertainties, many of which are beyond the
PiRates’ control.
Atlantic
Coast Conference
1. BCS
Bowl—Orange: This bowl bid already
has the name “Clemson” penciled in.
If the Tigers can take out Virginia Tech, it may be time to change the
writing to a gel-filled pen.
2.
Chick-fil-a: Would the former Peach
Bowl desire to have home town Georgia Tech, or would they prefer Wake Forest,
Virginia Tech, or Miami? With
Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson, they want the Yellow
Jackets.
3.
Gator: Once Ga. Tech is grabbed up,
the Gator goes after Boston College if the Eagles are at least 10-2 and beat
Miami. If not, then Miami is their
choice.
4. Champ
Sports: This bowl will take the
team the Gator Bowl doesn’t choose between Miami and Boston
College.
5. Meineke
Car Care: Wake Forest would be the perfect opponent for
Navy.
6. Emerald:
Virginia Tech would still be available if they don’t pull off some upsets. Hokies can travel better than what’s
left.
7. Music
City: It will come down to Maryland and Florida State. The Terps will fill more seats in
Nashville, as FSU fans aren’t going to travel to see a Seminole team that could
be 7-5 or even 6-6. As Beano Cook
once said, “Florida State fans come to bowl games with $20 and a clean shirt and
change neither.”
8. MPC
Computers: Florida State gets the privilege of playing in the snow on the blue
field and brings enough fans to fill up a couple of suites in
Boise.
Big
East
1. BCS Bowl—Orange: This is now a three-team race between
Louisville, West Virginia, and Rutgers.
The schedule is set up for all three teams to lose one game to one of the
other two. Louisville gets an extra
week to prepare to host WVU; Rutgers gets an extra week to prepare to host UL;
and West Virginia hosts Rutgers on December 2. I’m going out on a limb and calling for
West Virginia to run the table thanks to the running of Steve
Slaton.
After the first bowl, there are multiple
possibilities with bowls that have a choice of conferences. The Big East is eligible to receive bids
to the Gator, Sun, Texas, and Birmingham Bowls, but these are not
guaranteed. Here’s my
guess:
2. Gator: Louisville would be very
appealing at 11-1.
3. International: Rutgers deserves better, but it looks
like short of 12-0, they will be headed north of the border, although the Sun
Bowl could be a possibility.
4. Texas: Pittsburgh has name
recognition in the Lone Star State.
5. Birmingham: South Florida will get
this bid if they go 7-5. If not,
then Cincinnati could steal it at 6-6.
Big Ten
Unless some major upset occurs, the
Michigan and Ohio State game should be a battle of 11-0 teams with the winner
headed to the National Championship Bowl, and the loser getting an at-large BCS
Bowl. With seven guaranteed bids,
that would mean eight teams would be needed to satisfy the conference’s
allotment. It isn’t going to happen
as only six bowl-eligible teams are assured and at most seven teams will get to
six wins. Thus, the lowest-rated
bowl in the tier will have to look elsewhere for an at-large
team.
1. BCS Bowl—BCS Title Game: Ohio State
gets to play Michigan at the Shoe in Columbus. These teams faced off in 1970 and 1973
in this similar undefeated situation.
The Buckeyes won in 1970 and the two teams tied in 1973 with Ohio State
getting the Rose Bowl bid. History
should repeat and place the Buckeyes in Arizona for the
championship.
2. BCS At-large—Rose: Michigan would get
this bid as consolation.
3. Capital One: Wisconsin wasn’t supposed to be this
good this year, but the Badgers look almost as strong as the two giants ahead of
them.
4. Outback: Penn State isn’t good enough
to be here, but they move up thanks to Michigan and Ohio
State.
5. Alamo: Purdue is one half of a really
good team. They will bring their
gun-slinging offense to San Antonio.
6. Champs Sports: If Iowa doesn’t suffer
a total meltdown and quarterback Drew Tate can recover from his hand injury
(expected to miss this week), the Hawkeyes will settle in
here.
7. Insight: Indiana hosts Michigan State
this weekend, and the winner will be 5-4. The winner of this game would then
have to beat Minnesota when they play them in November. Give the edge to the Spartans who are
much more talented than where they will end up.
X. Motor City: There won’t be an
available team, and an at-large team will have to be
found.
Big 12
The Gator, Sun, and Texas Bowls have
working agreements but no guarantees with the Big 12. I predict the league will send someone
to the Sun and Texas bowls but not the Gator.
1. BCS Bowl—Fiesta: Texas is clearly
better than the other 11 members, but they aren’t so much better that they can
overlook Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or a possible rematch with Nebraska. Still, the Longhorns look good
here.
2. Cotton: Nebraska would be very
appealing at 10-3.
3. Holiday: Oklahoma figured to be in a
BCS Bowl but with the losses of their one great quarterback and their Heisman
Trophy Award-contending tailback, this is the best the Sooners can hope
for.
4. Alamo: Dennis Franchione saves his
job by guiding the Aggies here if his team doesn’t collapse down the stretch
facing a brutal schedule (at Baylor, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and at Texas) and drop
down three or four notches.
5. Insight: Missouri could move up ahead
of A&M if they can beat Oklahoma.
If not, the Tigers go here.
6. Sun: Texas Tech is a little
disappointing here, but the Red Raiders will still finish at least
7-5.
7. Independence: Ron Prince has done a
great job in his first season at Kansas State, and the Wildcats should become
bowl-eligible.
8. Texas: Both Oklahoma State and Baylor
have shots to finish 6-6; one of these four-win teams is guaranteed a fifth win
when they face off on 11/11.
Chances are about 50-50 that one of them will do it. If not, then the Big East might benefit
by placing a sixth team in a bowl in USF or Cincinnati (at
6-6).
Conference
USA
This conference gathers in bowl games
like a squirrel gathers nuts in October.
It now has five bids.
1. Liberty: This is Tulsa’s spot if
nobody can pull off an upset.
2. GMAC: Southern Mississippi hasn’t
been here, so the Eagles would be a good choice.
3. Armed Forces: Houston would be a
great fit and travel strongly to Ft. Worth.
4. Birmingham: Inviting UTEP would give
Mike Price a chance to coach in the state he was supposed to coach in before his
ill-timed visit to the wrong place.
5. New Orleans: Four teams are in the
running for a 6-6 record, and the law of averages says one will succeed. Those three are East Carolina, SMU, UAB,
and Marshall.
Independents
Notre Dame, Navy, and Army all have
agreements that can automatically place them in bowls. Army won’t be bowl eligible this year,
but the other two will.
1. BCS At-Large—Sugar: Notre Dame will
win at least 10 games and qualify for a BCS Bowl.
2. Meineke Car Care: Navy earns the bowl
that guarantees them a spot here.
X. Poinsettia: Army cannot fulfill its
allotment, throwing this open to an at-large bid.
Mid-American
The MAC now has three guaranteed bowl
agreements with a stipulation that could bring them a fourth bowl
(Birmingham).
1. GMAC: Kent State has played in one
bowl game, the 1972 Tangerine Bowl loss to Tampa. The Golden Flashes are headed to bowl
number two.
2. Motor City: Central Michigan would
fit here like a glove.
3. International: Frank Solich and Ohio
ride the arm of Austin Everson to Toronto.
4. Available for at-large bowl: Northern Illinois and Western Michigan
will be bowl eligible.
Unfortunately for the MAC, one of the available bowls is the Motor City,
which more than likely wouldn’t want two MAC teams. The Poinsettia will have an at-large
opening. NIU with star back Garrett
Wolfe could be appealing, but that’s a long distance to
travel.
Mountain
West
The MWC’s members usually ensure their
bowls an exciting game. The
conference has four guaranteed bids, and a fifth team could become an at-large
applicant.
1. Las Vegas: Brigham Young looks like
they are on the way back to becoming a western powerhouse. The Cougars should take the league crown
and get this bid.
2. Armed Forces: TCU would be an
excellent home-field opponent for an intra-state game if Houston gets the other
bid.
At this point, Colorado State, Air
Force, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming all look like they could finish 6-6. What a mess this would
create.
3. Poinsettia: Colorado State travels
well. They would be the preferred
6-6 team.
4. New Mexico: The home team would be
the obvious choice of a bowl that was created to allow the Lobos to play a
13th game on their home field.
X. Wyoming, Utah, and Air Force would be
available as at-large teams. Air
Force would travel and fill up the Motor City Bowl.
Pac-10
1. BCS Bowl—BCS Title Game: Southern
California will get this bid if they win out. Beating Notre Dame, UCLA, and Cal will
only improve their ranking in the BCS ratings. The Trojan defense is starting to look
stronger every week, and the offense is still quite
good.
2. BCS At-large—Rose: If Cal loses only
to USC, at 10-2 they would look rather inviting to come to Pasadena for the
first time since Eisenhower was President.
3. Holiday: Oregon looks like the P10’s
third best in a league where number three to number eight are about
equal.
4. Sun: Either Washington or Washington
State should get this bid, since UCLA played here last year. The Apple Cup game will be played in
Pullman this year, so go with the Cougars here.
5. Las Vegas: UCLA gets this
one.
6. Hawaii: Washington returns to a bowl
for the first time in four years.
7. Emerald: Arizona State may fall to
6-6 and get this bid. It could be
curtains for Dirk Koetter. Mike
Leach would be high on the list to replace him.
X. Oregon State would more than likely
be bowl eligible if they didn’t have to play at Hawaii in a 13th
game. It could mean the difference
between 6-7 and 6-6 without having to play that game. If they pull off an upset and finish
7-6, then they become the leader for the vacant Poinsettia Bowl
bid.
Southeastern
The SEC is almost certain to get two BCS
teams barring one of those events where the top teams beat up on themselves and
all finish with two losses. Let’s
go with the idea that two teams will emerge with impressive enough resumes to
madden the Big East.
1. BCS Bowl—Sugar: Can Arkansas run the
table, including wins over South Carolina,
Tennessee, LSU, and then Florida in the SEC Championship? I think they will lose at least once
more in the regular season, but they will still get the West title. By then, Mitch Mustain may be able to
take advantage of a better running game to out-duel the two-headed Gator
offense.
2. BCS At-large—Fiesta: Auburn could
finish 11-1, avoid the SEC Championship, and prevent Boise State from getting
this bid. When you read the WAC
section below, you will see why I am going with the Tigers
here.
3. Capital One: Tennessee or Florida
will get this bid, while the other gets the next
one.
4. Outback: And here’s the next
one. It goes to Florida or
Tennessee.
5. Cotton: L S U fans will travel en
masse to Dallas.
6. Chick-fil-a: Alabama would be a great
fit here.
7. Liberty: Georgia was headed toward a
New Year’s Day Bowl up until the second half kick against Tennessee. Now, they have to come to Tennessee for
their bowl.
8. Music City: South Carolina returns to
Nashville after having such a good time there on
10/21.
9. Independence: This spot is available
for Kentucky if they can beat Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and
Louisiana-Monroe. Chances are about
50-50 for that to happen. If not,
then one of the MAC or MWC bowl-eligible teams will
benefit.
Sunbelt
1. New Orleans: Arkansas State,
UL-Lafayette, MTSU, and Troy are all undefeated in conference play. UL-Lafayette looks the strongest; Troy
has the most favorable schedule; Arkansas State and MTSU have fewer conference
games still to play as they are both 3-0 in the league. Pick one out of a hat, but if I had to
choose, I’d go with Lafayette.
X. There is an oh-so-slim chance that a
second bowl-eligible team could sneak into an at-large bowl slot. For example, if the SEC got two teams
into BCS Bowls and Kentucky didn’t become bowl eligible, the Independence or
even Music City Bowl could find an SBC team worthy. MTSU at 8-4 might appeal to the Music
City Bowl.
Western
Athletic
Boise State has a good chance to take
away the third at-large BCS bid if they win out. As you’ll see below, I am thinking they
won’t finish 12-0.
1. MPC Computers: Boise State is going
to have to stay home and face an ACC team in the blue field bowl, because I
think they are headed for trouble in their season finale at Nevada. Remember what happened to Fresno St.
last year in Reno?
2. Hawaii: The theme of home field
invitees continues as the Warriors grab this bid.
3. New Mexico: Nevada gets its second
consecutive bowl bid.
X. Idaho and San Jose State have outside
shots at becoming bowl eligible.
Their coaches (Dennis Erickson and Dick Tomey) have established great
contacts through the years, but would these schools be able to guarantee ticket
sales? San Jose State could be a possibility for the Poinsettia
Bowl.
Conference Rankings
1 Big Ten 108.82
2 Pacific Ten 108.30
3 Big Twelve 107.00
4 Southeastern 106.58
5 Big East 105.75
6 Atlantic Coast 103.83
7 Mountain West 98.44
8 Independents 93.50
9 Conference USA 94.08
10 Western Athletic 92.89
11 Mid American 89.83
12 Sunbelt 82.63
And The Rest
Predicted
Winner Loser Margin
Iowa N. Illinois 27
Boston Coll. Buffalo 49
Wake Forest N. Carolina 12
Virginia N. C. State 1
Fla. State Maryland 3
Cincinnati Syracuse 10
Michigan N’Western 37
Wisconsin Illinois 34
Mich. St. Indiana 4
B G U Temple 14
Ball St. Miami (O) 4
Kansas St. Iowa St. 6
Tulane Army 3
Penn State Purdue 2
Ohio State Minnesota 33
Western Mich. East. Mich. 16
Washington Ariz. St. 2
Utah U N L V 23
Nevada N. M. State 24
Marshall Memphis 11
Colo. St. N. Mexico 8
San Jose St. La. Tech 7
Houston Cent. Fla. 16
Akron Toledo 5
Ga. Tech Miami (F) 9
Oklahoma Missouri 1
Colorado Kansas 1
Nebraska Okla. St. 10
T C U Wyoming 5
Southern Miss E C U 5
Troy N. Texas 10
Ark. State Fla. Atl. 11
Hawaii Idaho 26
Rutgers Connecticut 26