MO: You’ll forgive me just this once if I’ve got one
eye looking ahead to next week’s columns. While I can’t wait for our game
against Florida, the schedule is STACKED for the SEC next week. Just
consider this week’s slate of games as a fantastic setup for next week –
storylines in the SEC West expanding, and SEC East teams preparing for
monumental games before them. Even our big non-conference game (West Virginia at Louisville) happened last night, so by the time you’ll be reading
our picks, it will have been old news. That said, I swear on my honor as a
quasi-relevant pseudo-journalist that our picks were made well in advance of the
game itself. Enough banter – let’s get to this week’s games!!
JW: I only swear that the picks for the WVU/Louisville
game were made in advance if I'm right and Mike is wrong. There are a lot
of tough picks to make this week, both because the teams are so closely-matched,
and because when we get outside the SEC, it's obvious I don't know what I'm
talking about. It's a shame that school stuff will be keeping me from
seeing some of the best games this weekend, and the Professional Ethics exam
will be keeping me from at least part of Vanderbilt/Florida (who knew lawyers
had to know ethics?). Luckily, last time school-related stuff kept me from
watching a Vanderbilt game from start to finish, we beat Georgia. Here's
hoping for a continuation of that phenomenon. While picking this week's
games is fun as always, I'm already looking forward to next week. Now,
onto the games!
Arkansas State @ Auburn
MO: Can’t say that Auburn’s doing much for their BCS
case here. This game is just another example of how their non-conference
scheduling weakens their case to be in the BCS title (of course, that’s a
assuming that they can overcome a 2-game deficit to Arkansas in the West).
In addition to this game, Auburn has hosted Washington St., Tulane and
Buffalo. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row there. I’d love to pick the
Indians in a huge upset here just for karma’s sake, but I can’t see a team that
only scored 10 points in a win of Louisiana Monroe doing much against the Auburn
defense. Arkansas St. will be lucky to get 3 points this week, while the
Tigers tune up for their annual rivalry game against Georgia next week, winning
by 27.
JW: Let's not forget the last time a team from
Arkansas went into Auburn as an underdog! Ok, nevermind. Feel free
to ignore that little fact, since it has absolutely no bearing on what Auburn's
going to do to Arkansas State this weekend. I can't even use my normal
filler stuff about Auburn having something to prove, being on a roll, or looking
past the Indians to next week's Georgia game, because seriously, there's no way
this is even close. Ten minutes in, Auburn will have scored enough points
to win this. But just for good measure, they'll play the other 50, and end
up winning by 35.
Northwestern State @ Ole Miss
JW: I guess it's not really nice for me to state that
I was completely unaware that Northwest State had a football team, but it's
true. Currently sitting at 2-2 in the Southland Conference, the Demons
might be looking past Ole Miss to its upcoming conference games with the
Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin and the McNeese State Cowboys. Of course,
even if they see this as their national championship game, Ole Miss still has a
fun time with this one. Ole Miss had another game that showed they can
actually play good teams close, no doubt scaring the bejeezus out of Auburn in a
23-17 loss. With a bowl game already out of reach for the Rebels, they're
now looking to lay the foundation for next year. Northwest State will
undoubtedly give them a chance to try out some of the young guys who haven't
played this season. Another team with Demon in its name might have fared
well against Ole Miss in Oxford, but let's not kid ourselves here. Ole
Miss wins this one easily. Coach O's Wild Boyz by 27.
MO: I’d like to thank Jay for doing all the necessary
research for this game. This leaves the next few lines for me to completely
rip on Coach O and the Ole Miss football team. Nah, not really, though I
would have had we been able to beat them this season. Ole Miss has had
close games against big-time opponents this season, and might even be better
than their record shows. Then again, we’re all too well aware of how they
got one of their two wins on the season. They shouldn’t have any problems
against NW St., but just for yucks, I’ll say they get a scare and end up pulling
out a 13-point victory thanks to a few late drives.
Georgia @ Kentucky
MO: This is a sneaky game. After a 5-0 start,
Georgia’s gone 1-3 in their last three games, including a 24-22 loss to
Vanderbilt on Homecoming. The sad part? Not one of those games was
on the road (though last week’s loss to Florida was at a neutral site).
Kentucky’s been fairly middle-of-the-road this season, with wins over the teams
they’re supposed to beat (Texas St., Ole Miss, etc.), but getting shelled by
teams that are obviously superior to them (Florida, LSU, etc.). The
Wildcats just need one more win to make an unexpected bowl game, and while most
fans have their sixth win penciled in next week when they host the Commodores,
they’ve got a chance against Georgia, especially with the game being in
Lexington. I don’t see it happening though – the Bulldogs looked better
against Florida than they had since giving up 50 to Tennessee, and look for the
offense to come alive against a Kentucky defense giving up nearly 31 points a
game (including 34 to Central Michigan and 31 to Mississippi St). Nature
runs its course as the Dawgs beat the Cats, heading back to Athens on the heels
of 17-point win.
JW: If it wasn't for the Kentucky defense and its
ability to give up lots of points to just about anyone, I would say Kentucky
gets the surprise win here, claiming the elusive bowl bid a week earlier than
their fans expected. Georgia has managed this season to disappoint just
about everyone, and even during that 5-0 start, they weren't looking so
hot. UK might be a little more motivated and has the home-field advantage,
but Georgia has the weapons to overcome that. It's just a matter of
whether they'll use them or not. They kept it somewhat close with florida,
after three straight disappointing games (yes, beating Mississippi State by a
field goal is disappointing). In fact, I'm starting to wonder if, much
like Vanderbilt, Georgia is simply better as a road team. This game could
certainly go either way, but I like the Bulldogs to win it, but only by 6.
Mississippi State @ Alabama
JW: Well, the Bulldogs are finally putting up points
in games. While they're 1-2 in the last three games, they've managed to
put up 35, 24, and 31 points respectively. Sure, the toughest team they
played in that span was Georgia, but Croom and company have to be happy to see
some semblance of consistent production, particularly after being shut out twice
to begin the season. Alabama is coming off a bye week against FIU, and the
Crimson Tide is looking for some sort of solid offense after several games where
they just couldn't produce effectively. This is a dangerous game for Bama,
as State seems to be gradually improving, and the Tide seems to be gradually
declining. If this game wasn't played in the state of Alabama, I would be
inclined to call the stunning upset, but with the advantage of Bryant-Denny
Stadium, I say the Crimson Tide pulls off the win, but it won't be pretty.
Bama by 10.
MO: I could easily say that MSU is a team on the rise,
but let’s be honest, that’s not saying all that much. They’ve improved as
the season has gone along, but Bama’s simply the better team here. While
the Bulldogs kept it close against Georgia and Kentucky, I don’t see them making
much noise in Alabama. The Tide’s got the homefield advantage of an extra
week’s of worth, which could be enough to overcome a team with better talent who
had just lost the past to games by a combined six points. Too bad
Mississippi only has the losses and not the talent. Bama scored early and
often here, running away with a 23-point win.
Arkansas @ South Carolina
MO: Arkansas beats VU by 2, while South Carolina
stomped us by 18, and yet the Gamecocks are the underdogs, and at home no
less? Let’s face it – after losing in somewhat precedented fashion to USC
(they gave up 50 points as opposed to last year’s 70), the Hogs have tallied
seven straight wins, including a huge road upset over then #2 Auburn.
Since that win, Arkansas has dominated their opposition, winning their last
three games by the combined score of 145-20. Of course, they were playing
SE Missouri St., Ole Miss, and Louisiana Monroe, but that’s still an impressive
figure. South Carolina needs just one more win to become bowl-eligible,
but a loss here snaps the last few threads of any hope of the Gamecocks reaching
Atlanta next month. Arkansas, meanwhile, has a huge edge in the SEC West,
leading LSU by two games and Auburn by one PLUS the head-to-head
tiebreaker. I think they keep rolling towards Atlanta, handing Spurrier
another SEC loss as the Razorbacks win by 10.
JW: You're right. I just can't see the Gamecocks
pulling off the victory here. I don't even think it's going to be as close
as many are predicting. Regardless of who they've played, Arkansas has
been very impressive this year, and they only seem to be getting better.
South Carolina will be a good test to determine if they can dominate SEC foes as
well as they've dominated the cupcakes, or if the early weeks of close games to
Vandy and Bama are still a possibility. Spurrier and Company put up a
decent fight to Tennessee, but ended up letting it get away late. They're
still a pretty good team, but I think Arkansas has all the momentum and keeps on
going here. I like the Razorbacks by 17.
Maryland @ Clemson
JW: For a game pitting two teams near the top of the
Atlantic division of the ACC, it seems weird that Clemson is so heavily favored,
but it's easier to understand when you look at who they've played so far.
Maryland has yet to play Wake Forest, BC, or Miami, the three teams remaining
after Clemson. Talk about a rough stretch. The Terps have so far
exceeded expectations, but this four-game stretch looks to cause reality to come
crashing back down. I'll give them credit for the win over Florida State,
but they don't have any real solid victories over good teams. Clemson, on
the other hand, handled the Demon Deacons, pounded Georgia Tech, and played BC
tough. There's a reason the Tigers are favored here - they're clearly the
better team. I think UMD has some momentum coming in, and the game will be
closer than some predict, but ultimately Clemson comes out with the victory,
winning by 13. Maryland fans, just be happy you're already bowl-eligible,
because the rest of the season may not be too pretty.
MO: I was going to point out that Maryland was able to
pull off an upset against Florida State last week, but let’s face it – EVERYONE
has upset Florida St. this season. Clemson is the better team here, but
don’t count the Terps out. Remember, Clemson lost to a disappointing
Virginia Tech team last week, and were a blocked punt away from losing to Wake
Forest. Both of those are good teams, but Clemson has more talent than
both. I’d be more apt to pick the upset here if they hadn’t lost last week,
but I think the Tigers will be focused enough to pick up a tight
victory. Fear the Turtle, as they’ll get an early lead, but the Tigers will
storm back, winning by 8.
Boston College @ Wake Forest
MO: The weekly love-fest for Wake Forest continues,
but this time with huge BCS implications. Wake has had a great year, going
7-1, with their only loss coming to Clemson, who needed a big comeback to get
the win. Most folks expected Boston College to have a good season, but to
be atop the ACC Atlantic? And tied with, of all teams, Wake Forest and
Maryland? Find someone who says they knew that was going to happen this
season, and I’ll show you a liar. While this seems to be Wake’s year,
they’re starting a rough stretch this week, with pivotal games against Florida
St., Virginia Tech, and Maryland to come. Meanwhile, Boston College gets
to take its shot at Duke next week before clashes against Maryland and Miami
finish their season. Before this turns into an ACC season-end preview, let
me say I’ll stick with Wake’s good karma following their scheduling a seven-year
series with Vanderbilt and pick them to keep rolling, beating the Eagles by
13.
JW: This game and the WVA/Louisville game are the
types of close games that are so ridiculously hard to pick. Both these
teams are a huge surprise this year, and the ACC has gone completely
bizarro. I like the feel-good Wake Forest story, but I think reality sets
in this week, and we see the beginning of the Deacons' fall from grace. I
still think they have it in them to at least beat FSU, but November has not been
a kind month in the past (they've lost 8 straight in November), and their
strength of schedule isn't exactly something to write home about. Aside
from a close loss at NC State, BC has a solid resume with some pretty good
wins. Wake's karma for signing the Vanderbilt deal can only last so long,
and I think the Eagles pull off the win en route to an Atlantic division title,
beating Wake by 7.
West Virginia @ Louisville
JW: Thank goodness for Tivo...I'm too busy to watch
this game live, but considering it's easily one of the biggest games of the
season, I can't miss it. This game has been a barnburner in past years,
and those games didn't have the major BCS implications that this one does.
So much is on the line that you know both teams have to be ready to play their
best ball of the year. Regardless of their inferior opponents, these two
teams have put up monster offensive numbers this year, and their defenses have
been relatively stingy. I still think this will be a fun, high-scoring
game. Ultimately, I think this will come down to how the quarterbacks
match up against the respective defenses, and because of that, I like WVU's Pat
White to exploit the Louisville defense, who hasn't faced a QB remotely as good
as White all season. The Mountaineer defense will certainly have problems
with the Louisville rushing attack, but I still think the advantage rests
slightly with WVU. I could go on here, but it'll just become more and more
obvious that I have no clue when it comes to the Big East. WVU by 6.
MO: Again, I swear that these picks were submitted
before the game was over. That said, I can predict with certainty that
_______________ will win this game. ______________’s offense is just too
much for _________________ to over come, and ______________________, the QB/RB
for __________________ is going to have a field day throwing/running all over
the ________________ defense. I’ll say right now that both of these team
will lose to Rutgers later in the season, but tonight _________________ will
come away with the big victory, getting one step closer to Arizona, winning by
___. (Don, thanks a bunch for filling these in and picking the right
options – I’m not sure how I was going to defend my actual pick of Louisville by
10. I’ll get the check in the mail tomorrow!)
LSU @ Tennessee
MO: To borrow a professional wrestling term (which I’m
sure most LSU and UT fans would appreciate), this one promises to be a real
slobber-knocker. In one corner, you’ve got an LSU team that has dominated
most of its opponents – they’ve outscored unranked teams by a combined
274-36. Of course, they were home for all of those games, while they’ve
been on the road for their only game against ranked opponents (Auburn and
Florida), both of which they’ve lost. Tennessee’s disappointing 2005
season, which saw them go 5-6, including a 28-24 loss to Vanderbilt at home to
knock them from bowl consideration, had one bright spot – a win at LSU which
featured a 17-point 4th quarter comeback. JaMarcus Russell and Erik Ainge
should both light up the scoreboard this week, but look for LSU’s running game
to control the flow and keep UT’s offense off the field. Despite the fact
that UT can play the “disrespect card” (after all, they are the underdog despite
having a better SEC record, overall record, and ranking while playing AT HOME),
I think LSU is going to pull the game out here. They won’t need a
comeback, but they’ll have to fight a late home-team drive to secure a 4-point
victory.
JW: LSU is coming off a bye week (and, essentially, another
bye week in its win over Fresno State), while UT had a tough game against South
Carolina, and their starting QB is a little banged up. Eric Ainge is
confident he'll play Saturday, and I don't doubt that, but I wonder how much his
sore ankle has hindered his preparation for this weekend, and if it will affect
his game time performance. Combine that with the general ridiculousness of
LSU's defense, and I think we have the makings of an LSU victory.
Tennessee's defense has been giving up quite a few points to teams that are
inferior to LSU lately, so JaMarcus Russell has to like his chances.
Disrespect or not, I think LSU is the better team here, and while Neyland will
be loud throughout the entire game, which will be very close, the only noise
when the 4th quarter expires will be coming from the visitor's bench and the
purple-and-gold fans in the stands. Tigers by 9.
Florida @ Vanderbilt
JW: Both teams should be extremely motivated by this
game. Florida knows it needs the win to keep rolling in the SEC and BCS,
and thanks to last year's game, they know they need to take the Commodores
seriously. Vanderbilt, of course, has the revenge factor, thanks to Rick
Loumiet's Worst Call Ever. Florida has a 15-game winning streak in the
series, and we all know that streak is bound to end sooner or later. We
finally saw how great Chris Nickson can be last week against Duke, and I think
he'll continue showing fans that he is the best choice at QB this year.
Sure, he won't put up the same monster numbers, but I think he'll do a good job
against a tough Florida defense. I'm the most worried about fatigue and
injuries, which seem to always be a problem with Commodore teams, but more so
this year, since the 'Dores don't get a bye week. I'm optimistic for a
good, close game, but I think Florida's on too much of a roll and is too
talented to let Vandy steal this one away (and it doesn't help that Dudley Field
isn't exactly a solid home-field advantage). The Commodores might give
them a scare, but I think the Gators come away with the win, clinching an SEC
East championship with the UT loss. Florida by 10.
MO: Everything is rolling Florida’s way – they’ve
beaten all of their rivals and their only loss was a tight game against one of
the best teams in the country. They’re still in the BCS title hunt and
they’ve got one of the most talented teams in the country. That said,
Vanderbilt’s got a lot on the line. There is the revenge factor, yes, but
there’s another key point to be made. This is their tough stretch of the
season – Florida, at UK, and Tennessee to wrap up the season.
Florida has just wrapped up their rough stretch – LSU, Auburn, and
Georgia, and the media thinks that this could be a breather for the
Gators. We know better, and if the Gators don’t come out focused to beat a
Vanderbilt team that will show up to play, they’ll just be another 2-loss team
in the SEC. Don’t forget that they could also be looking ahead to
Spurrier’s homecoming next week.
We saw a lot from Chris Nickson last week, but look for the running game to
be the stars this week. As odd as it sounds, I think that the intangibles
line up in Vanderbilt’s favor, and if we can get a big enough crowd, we’ll have
one more advantage. We’ve seen a lot of streaks broken recently, and I
think that this game will be the first against Florida that we’ve won in 18
years. Pass the Kool-Aid (hey, it worked when I used it against Georgia!),
as I’m saying the Dores will win on a late drive, winning by one thanks to a
two-point conversion. It’ll be a year too late, but we’ll finally get the
win we deserve and be that much closer to getting to a bowl game.