MO: What a week for the SEC – while fans get a break
from the Mississippi teams this week as they prepare for what promises to be an
uninspiring Egg Bowl, five key match-ups arise between the remaining ten
teams. That’s right, you’re getting five additional non-SEC games this week
that we promise to mangle, mis-analyze, and totally botch!! But that’s what
keeps you coming, right? While this week looks to be great, next week-end
could be even better – I keep hearing that there’s some big game in the Midwest,
featuring some team from Ohio and a former opponent of ours that I just can’t
recall the name of…. Anyway, enough about last week, let’s get to the games
at hand!
JW: There are some pretty good games left on the SEC
schedule, and this week offers up quite a few with some good storylines - bowl
eligibility, SEC championship game chances, and BCS bowls are all in the mix
this week. Also, my record of futility in picking non-SEC games looks to
chug right along this week, as we look outside the conference for a few big
games to balance both Mississippi teams putting up solid fights against the
bye. I've enjoyed the feel-good Rutgers, Wake Forest, and Maryland stories
(among others), and it'll be interesting to see if they can keep surprising
everyone this week. I think I'm going to go ahead and claim my seat at my
local sports bar for the Michigan/Ohio State game. That's a game I don't
look forward to picking. Now, on to the picks!
Georgia @ Auburn
JW: Auburn still technically has a shot at playing for
the BCS championship, but it's going to take a lot. They'll need to win
out, take the SEC crown, and get some help from some other teams. Stranger
things have happened, but it's definitely an uphill battle for the Tigers, who
are still praying for an Arkansas slip-up or two. In the meantime, they
still need to get things done against Georgia and Alabama. That's not too
hard a challenge, as Auburn has already gotten its toughest SEC foes out of the
way. Georgia, on the other hand, is still struggling, and the 4-point loss
to Kentucky didn't give them much to be happy about. The Bulldogs might
have enough wins for bowl eligibility, but there's probably not a single fan or
player who thinks this is anything but a very disappointing season. Sure,
some hope can be salvage if they pull the upset here, but Auburn's not going to
let that happen. Their defense is too much for the Bulldogs, whose offense
hasn't been showing too many signs of life as of late. They're giving up a
ridiculous number of turnovers, and you know the stingy Auburn defense smells
the blood in the water. Look for the Tigers to maul the Bulldogs (I'm sure
I'm the first sportswriter to ever use that phrase...*cough cough*), by at least
17 points.
MO: It’s supposed to be the oldest rivalry in Southern
college football, but this year’s match-up lacks its normal muster thanks to
Georgia having already lost to 80% of its SEC East opponents (that’s Florida,
Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt at home in a 24-22 Homecoming
stunner). After losing to Arkansas, Auburn has won all of its games to stay
in the hunt for the SEC title, though they’ll need to help mentioned
above. Unfortunately for the Bulldog faithful, Uga’s leaving this game as
one sad puppy. The Tigers should assert themselves early in the contest,
and as bad as Georgia’s offense has been, the Dawgs won’t be able to catch
up. It’s War Eagle all day, as the Tigers win by 27.
South Carolina @ Florida
MO: The Prodigal Coach returns to the fold. Steve Spurrier essentially made the Gator program what it is today, taking the
Fun’n’Gun offense and racking up titles as the years went by. Florida
faithful have had this date circled ever since Spurrier announced that he’d be
returning to the SEC as the Gamecock coach rather than replacing Ron Zook nearly
two years ago. The fans will be loud and the media will pay attention, but
it’s not really going to affect the players. While there may be a few
seniors that he visited on the recruiting trail, few (if any) of the boys in
blue were ever coached by Spurrier, removing them emotionally from that
subplot. Players will instead be focused on the Gamecock players and the
opportunity before them. This week’s game serves as one more shot to prove
that they belong in the title game, and a big win in a national spotlight after
what some feel was a disappointing showing in Nashville. Spurrier beat
Florida last year, but when he returns to the place he named “The Swamp”, he
won’t leave with a victory. Look for a close game, but with Florida pulling
away in the end, winning by 12.
JW: As I'm sure Mike would agree, the Florida win in
Nashville shouldn't be seen by Florida fans (or anyone, for that matter) as a
disappointment, aside from maybe the amount of interceptions thrown by Chris Leak. The SEC and the rest of the nation needs to realize that a victory
against Vanderbilt is not a foregone conclusion, and more often than not, the
Commodores are going to play you tough, no matter how good a team you are.
A six-point win in Nashville should not be seen as a "bad victory" for the
Gators, as I'm sure many people think it is. Either way, the Florida
offense got a wake-up call that it wasn't the unstoppable force it might have
believed itself to be at one point. The tough Vandy defense kept them in
check throughout most of the game, but the Gamecock defense, particularly
playing in Gainesville, should be a much friendlier opponent. I'm sure
Spurrier has some special plans for his return to the Swamp, and this game could
be interesting for a while. I think Florida ultimately has more guns and
is far too focused to let this game slip away from them. Look for the
Gators to devour the Gamecocks by about 16 points.
Alabama @ LSU
JW: Well, last year I picked the Bama victory almost
solely on the home-field advantage, observing that MSU was actually getting
better over the season, while Alabama was going in the opposite direction.
As we all know now, the Bulldogs pulled off the upset. I can imagine what
Bryant-Denny was like last Saturday. And now the Tide recedes into Baton
Rouge (yeah, I'm in metaphor mode this week), not exactly the best place to try
and have a rebound game after a terrible loss. Regardless of whether the
Mississippi State game was a demoralizing loss or a wake-up call for this
Alabama team, LSU is going to take this game seriously as they keep their
chances alive for an SEC championship game berth. Of course, they still
need Auburn to lose out and Arkansas to lose one as well, so it's definitely a
long-shot. The Alabama offense is obviously struggling, not even able to
score a touchdown against the "vaunted" Mississippi State defense, so you can
imagine what the Tiger defense is hoping to do. Look for JaMarcus Russell
to strike early, and LSU to put this game away midway through the third
quarter. Bayou Bengals by 20.
MO: I dunno – there’s nothing like losing to MSU at
home that lights a fire under an SEC team. Granted, we haven’t seen it in 5
years, so my memory might be a little fuzzy on that. The Crimson Tide
should come out strong this week, in hopes of wiping out what happened last
week. That said, they’re doing it against an LSU team with all the
momentum. After getting their revenge on Tennessee last week, the Tigers
are looking to keep the winning streak alive, and should do so easily at home,
where they have just flat-out dominated. They’ll be crowin’ in Louisiana
this week as LSU just keep on keepin’ on, winning by 17.
Miami @ Maryland
MO: While Maryland turns out to be the surprising team
in line for the ACC title game, this contest is getting attention for a tragic
reason. After the death of one of their starting defensive lineman, Miami
is playing in Bryan Pata’s honor. While the game itself may be trivial, the
events of this week will do one of two things for the Hurricanes. They can
come out like gangbusters, riding the emotion to a big win, or they can come out
flat after a long week and lose even bigger. Maryland was the better team
going into this, and they still are and should have been able to handle an
uninspired Hurricanes team. The Terps have held their own in close games,
including a 13-12 nail biter last week at Clemson. As much as I hate to
say, I don’t think this one’s close, as Maryland takes another step towards the
unlikely Terps-Deacons match-up to decide the ACC Atlantic Division. The
Terps hold off a late ‘Canes rally in the closing minutes, winning by 13.
JW: It's hard to imagine being able to play a football
game less than a week after one of your teammates has been killed, but the
'Canes are seeing this as a game to be played for Bryan Pata. It's a hard
call to make here, as Maryland has been on a roll, but Miami obviously has a lot
to play for this week. The Hurricanes have had their fair share of
problems, disappointments, and tragedy this year, while the Terps have been one
of the big surprise teams of the season, and are still in the hunt for an ACC
title. There will obviously be a lot of emotion here, but I think Miami
will rally around the loss of Bryan Pata and play their first truly inspired
game of the season. Hurricanes by 7.
Oregon @ Southern California
JW: Oregon started off their season solidly enough,
rolling to 4-0, but ever since then they've been somewhat inconsistent.
They're coming off of back-to-back wins to Washington and Portland State, which,
sure, back-to-back wins is great and all, but seriously, Washington and Portland
State. USC appeared to have shaken off their loss to Washington State, as
they stomped Stanford to the tune of 42-0. USC has a brutal schedule
ahead, with Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame remaining on the schedule, and I get the
feeling they'll lose at least one of these. However, they won't lose this
one against the Ducks. Oregon has been the model of inconsistency this
year, without very many impressive wins on their schedule. They're just
not in the same league as USC, who, while they might not be the juggernaut they
were last year, are still pretty darn good. The Trojans pull off the win
(no metaphors here, for obvious reasons), topping the Ducks by 10.
MO: Yeah, it’s a 42-point win, but seriously,
Stanford. USC is indeed starting a rough stretch to end the season, and I’m
not all that convinced that they’ll start on the right foot. With a win
this week, Oregon can pull into second in the Pac-10 standings, so there’s a lot
on the line. Remember, tainted though some may have thought it, they won
against a tough Oklahoma team early in the season. I’m gonna go out on a
limb here and say that USC is looking ahead to next week’s big match-up against
Cal. It won’t be so big when the Trojans have two losses, and I’m sure the
Ducks would be happy to oblige them just that. It’s “Quack, quack, quack”
all day long as the Ducks jump to an early lead and hold off yet another
ill-fated last minute USC run, winning by 3.
Wake Forest @ Florida State
MO: Talk about teams defying expectations. Wake
Forest sits atop the ACC Atlantic Division, controlling its destiny to appear in
December’s ACC Championship game. Florida St., last year’s champion, sits
near the bottom, ahead of only a NC State team that beat them earlier in the
season. And yet, Florida St. is favored to win by Vegas and most
“expert”. Well, let this amateur weigh in on the subject. Even though
Wake hasn’t won in Florida St. since 1959, this isn’t your typical Demon Deacon
team. They beaten every team they’ve faced save for a Clemson team that
needed a furious fourth-quarter rally to top them. Wake scores early and
scores often against an underachieving Seminole team, riding their own personal
karma wave through to next week’s match-up against Virginia Tech as they win by
7.
JW: I'm completely baffled by Florida State being
favored in this game, particularly with the margin expected to be as high as it
is. Talk about bulletin board material for the Deacons. This is a
match-up of a team that's exceeded pretty much all expectations with a team that
has pretty much not met a single expectation this season, and yet the
underachieving Seminoles are supposed to easily win this game? By all
means, I'm no expert, but something ain't right here. All streaks have to
end sometime, and this is a prime year for Wake to finally win in
Tallahassee. Quite frankly, Wake Forest is a much better team than Florida
State this year, and it's not something that home-field advantage can cancel
out. I fully expect the Demon Deacons to win this one, and while it might
seem close, they'll control the game from start to finish. Wake by 10.
Nebraska @ Texas A&M
JW: This is one of those games where the teams are
essentially equal, and it's hard to list any advantages on either side.
Add to that the fact that it's a non-SEC game, and this pick might as well be a
coin toss. Both teams have a lot to play for, as Nebraska is looking for a
berth in the Big 12 title game - all they have to do is win here - and the
Aggies have to win to even have a chance to get into the title game (but that
requires Texas and Oklahoma to completely collapse). The Aggies have a
pretty potent offense, clashing with the stingy Nebraska defense that's pretty
solid against the run. One might say that A&M has the advantage here,
especially since they're playing at home, but the Huskers have much more to play
for at this point. It'll be a close game, but the Aggies will ultimately
be husked to the tune of 6 points.
MO: Texas A&M suffered a close loss last week at
the hands of Oklahoma, and needs to win here if they’re to have any chance of
winning the Big 12 South (they have to have Kansas St. beat Texas in order for
that to happen, but let’s suspend disbelief for a few minutes here). The
Aggies have played well all season, losing only to Texas Teach and Oklahoma by a
combined 5 points. Nebraska’s had a nice resurgence this season, but I
don’t see them winning this game. The Aggies can leave everything on the
field before a nice long rest heading into a Thanksgiving match-up at Texas,
which gives them a big edge here. They’ll be ready to cut Varsity’s horns
off after taking care of business against the Huskers, winning by 9.
Louisville @ Rutgers
MO: Again, though this is a Thursday night game, I
promise that we’ve written the picks for the game before the game has started
(even though after I nailed Louisville by 10, I’m sure you might have your
doubts). As Wake is in the ACC, Rutgers has been the shocker of the Big
East, running through their opponents each and every week. The Cardinals
are coming off the big win in last Thursday’s game, beating an undefeated West Virginia team that some had picked to go the BCS Championship. This has the
making for a great game, pitting a fantastic Louisville offense (scoring 39.3
point per game) and the impressive Rutgers defense (allowing just 9.1
ppg). In big games like this, defense wins, and this game will prove to be
no exception. This won’t be a pretty shoot-out that we saw last week, but
the Scarlet Knights defense will hold the Cardinal offense in check, and the
offense, behind RB Ray Rice, will do just enough to remain undefeated, winning
by 4.
JW: To clarify last week's Thursday night pick - Yes,
Mike picked Louisville to win by ten, and I give him full credit for that.
However, I'm still waiting for him to provide proof that he didn't pay off
the Mountaineers to throw the game. I know the implications of what I'm
saying, and I'm prepared for the national consequences it could have. But
the truth has to be known! I'm sure VandyMania is proud to be the original
source of the upcoming O'Neillgate. Anyway, now on to our next tainted
Thursday night pick! I'm all about making another Big East pick about
which I know absolutely nothing (as evidenced by last week), and once again I'm
going to disagree with Mike. I'm taking the safer pick with Louisville, on
the reasoning that the Rutgers defense hasn't seen anything like the Louisville
offensive attack. The Louisville defense might not be the most
intimidating squad on the planet, but they'll be able to keep Rice and company
in check through most of the game. I like the Cardinals here to win by 3 -
the game won't be decided until the final play, when a hail mary pass falls
incomplete. And yes, I am aware that I have now doomed Louisville to a
loss.
Tennessee @ Arkansas
JW: All Arkansas has to do is win two of its last
three to get into the SEC championship game, and maybe less depending on what
others do. The Razorbacks' remaining games are Tennessee, Mississippi
State, and LSU. Because of the lack of press and the relatively low
rankings, Arkansas is definitely playing up the "no respect" angle, and can you
really blame them? They're undefeated in the toughest conference in the
SEC, and aside from an embarrassing loss to USC early on, there really isn't
anything on their record to make anyone question their talent. Both teams
are dealing with some quarterback issues, but Arkansas will obviously rely
heavily on Darren McFadden. The Tennessee defense is still allowing a good
amount of points to teams with any semblance of a good offense, and even teams
without much of an offense (read: Georgia). Ultimately, both squads are
pretty evenly matched, but Arkansas has motivation from the lack of national
respect and the knowledge that they control their own SEC championship
destiny. It should be a good game, but UT's quarterback problems (if Ainge
plays, you have to think he won't be as mobile as usual, and if Crompton plays,
he'll have the normal issues any freshman QB would have in a hostile
environment) will prevent them from scoring the points necessary to win.
Ultimately, Smokey is nothing but pig slop for the Razorbacks (of all my
metaphors, this is the one I'm most ashamed of), and Arkansas comes out with a
13-point win.
MO: The Hogs are coming to play this week. From
the moment they step on that field, they're going to be focused on what they
have to get done. The game could go either way, but one thing's for sure
-- the Hogs will be ready. But enough about the Tennessee cheerleaders,
let's talk football. Tennessee stumbled in this year’s turnaround as LSU
took revenge for being one of the few victims to Tennessee last
year. Remember, after all, that Tennessee went just 5-6 last year,
including a 28-24 loss at home to Vanderbilt. Arkansas is on an
unbelievable run and has two tests remaining before claiming the SEC West
outright. The Razorbacks can take a lot of pressure from their 11/19
meeting against LSU if they can beat Tennessee this week and Mississippi St. on
the 12th. I’m surprised that Mustain was pulled against South
Carolina – it’ll be interesting to see if Coach Nutt’s decision to with Casey Dick at QB pays off against Tennessee. Eric Ainge has been benched as well,
and Jonathon Crompton will step in, depriving us all of a much anticipated Jim Bob Cooter appearance, as well as a Jim Bob Cooter / Casey Dick
match-up. Overall, this game will be won on the ground, especially thanks
to the oh-so-harsh one half suspension of Arian Foster after being caught in a
late night bar fight after drinking underage. Arkansas rolls, taking what
should be a marquee match-up and turning it into a steamroll, winning by 24.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
MO: Despite having the lowest profile of the SEC games,
this promises to be one of the best ones out there. Kentucky needs just one
more win in its next three games to finish .500 for the season, while Vanderbilt
needs to win its final two. There’s a huge revenge factor for the
Commodores, as a high-scoring UK loss was one that prevented a VU winning season
last year. As is usually the case, Vanderbilt has a good shot to move the
ball well in Lexington. Kentucky has given up almost 448 yards per game on
offense in its last three contests, including 297 yards passing. If
Vanderbilt can come in with the mindset knowing that they can win the game as
long as they take care of the football, it could be a long day for the
Wildcats. I think they will, and the bowl-planning in Lexington will have
to wait one more week as the Commodores will give themselves one last shot at a
bowl by stifling Kentucky’s offense and scoring at will, winning by 17.
JW: Last year, Vanderbilt moved the ball at will
against Kentucky. It's a shame they only did so for the second half, or
I'd still be thinking back to my trip to the bustling tourist Mecca of
Shreveport, Louisiana, or a triumphant return to Nashville for the Music City
Bowl. But, alas, the Commodores spotted the Wildcats a ridiculous amount
of points to start the game off (what, was it like 38? My intern is out
for the day, and I never do my own research), and yet another losing season hit
the record books. I'm still not sure why Vandy played so flat last year,
and Kentucky played so inspired, but I get the feeling this year both teams will
be ready to play, and it should be a good game. I was inspired by (most
of) the game against Florida last week, and I think the Commodores can build on
that game. The defense will be revved up, and Chris Nickson and Earl Bennett will move the ball at will against the Wildcats. I like the
Vanderbilt victory here, but I don't quite buy into us being able to "score at
will" against anyone just yet. Commodores, uh, command the Wildcats,
winning by 6.