JW: From top to bottom, the SEC East looks to be much
better than the West. You have the defending national champs, the
defending NIT champs, a #2 seed in last year's tournament, a traditional
powerhouse, and a couple of teams trying to prove they're for real. It'll
be interesting to see how the season plays out in this division, and I don't
think we'll see any clear leaders until late, unlike in the West. That
means, of course, that I don't think Florida's a lock for anything, unlike what
a lot of predictions are saying. The biggest questions in my mind are
whether Tennessee can repeat its improbable regular season from last year, and
if Vanderbilt can play up to its expectations, albeit a year late. Either
way, we'll know a lot more in late December, right before SEC play cranks up
(which is my way of saying take my predictions now with a grain of
salt).
MO: The East features a wide variety of teams – the
reigning national champions in Florida, a (sigh) entertaining and energetic
Tennessee, and a Vanderbilt team that could very well do anything from finish
near the cellar to win the whole thing. Kentucky’s coming off an odd
season where they started slow but finished strong, and Georgia and South Carolina could end up having good season as well despite finishing in the bottom
of the East last season. While one team is eventually going to rise to the
top, I have a feeling it won’t be until the very end of the season that we’ll
get to know just who it may be. With that, let’s wrap the preview up with
the beasts from the East!
Florida
MO: What’s better than being the defending national
champions? Having a nearly identical team to the one that just won the
title. The Gators are returning everyone from last year’s title run save
for a graduating Adrian Moss, who only counted for 3.1 points a game in
’05-’06. Corey Brewer, Al Horford and Joakim Noah are being heralded as
this year’s can’t-miss triplets, and Billy Donovan has a lot of hype to live up
to as the Gators are a consensus #1 to start the season. Their preseason
features a whole bunch of nobodies save for to prime games – the #3 ranked
Kansas Jayhawks and the #4 Ohio State Greg Odens, er, Buckeyes. I wouldn’t
be surprised if they split those two, or even lost both – remember, even last
year they lost twice to South Carolina, so we know that they’re capable of
losing games they’re not necessarily supposed to. I don’t think they’re a
lock for the top spot in the East, but they’ll easily be in the top two, and
even with the “Defending Champs” target squarely on their chest, they should be
able to make a deep run in the Big Dance once again.
JW: Florida, while a quality team through most of last
season, certainly benefited from coming together at the right time (as most NCAA
champions do). Of course, they'll be loaded again this year, but they'll
need a lot of luck to repeat last season's success. I expect Florida to
hit a couple of bumps early on (probably against Kansas and OSU, but maybe even
with another non-conference opponent), and a lot of people will claim the sky is
falling. However, by the end of SEC play, I think we'll see the Gators
looking to make another solid run into the postseason. I'm withholding
judgment until I see exactly how they perform in the first half of the season,
but it's hard to deny that Florida has some top-tier talent and definitely
deserves its number one ranking. How long that ranking will last, of
course, is another story. Florida's obviously the team to beat in the SEC,
and I see them dominating the SEC East, with the chances pretty high of winning
the division.
Georgia
JW: The Bulldogs are still trying to climb back up to
the top rung of the SEC East ladder, and while they showed flashes of potential
last year, they still had a lot of work to do. With four starters back,
plus a JuCo transfer (Takais Brown) and a new, talented freshman (Albert Jackson), the Bulldogs have potential to put up some solid offensive
numbers. Georgia opens up their season with games against Southern
University this Friday and Western Kentucky next Tuesday. A key
early-season game for the Bulldogs will be against Wake Forest. If they
can put up a respectable showing in Winston-Salem (not even necessarily win),
the SEC East might be in for some trouble. Georgia has a relatively tough
pre-conference schedule, with the aforementioned Wake Forest game, Georgia Tech,
and Wisconsin on the horizon. If Georgia can use these games as a catalyst
to propel them into SEC play, a relatively weak non-conference record (with
losses to strong teams) could put them in a good position. I don't think
this team has quite turned the corner yet, but they'll have some impressive wins
this season.
MO: Is this really the fourth year since
How-many-points-in-a-three-pointer-gate? Georgia’s spent most of those
years in the bottom of the SEC East, something the Bulldogs simply hadn’t been
accustomed to. They’re returning a lot of their starters from last year,
but returning starters from a bad season isn’t always a good thing. That
said, they’ve got a lot of good teams ahead of them in the East, and even if
they can pull off a few upsets in the non-conference schedule, I don’t see them
reaching the upper half of the division quite yet. They’ll lose a couple of
games they shouldn’t before getting to their SEC opponents, and I can’t say that
they’ll do much better against them. After what can only be called a long
football season, it looks like it’s going to be a long season on the hardwood as
well.
Kentucky
MO: Last year, we got treated to a recent trend, as
well as a first. Not only did they lose to Vanderbilt at Rupp for the first
time in the team’s history, but they also lost in the second round of the Big
Dance for the second time in three years. While they lost to 1-seed
Connecticut (not nearly as much a surprise as when they lost to UAB in ’04), it
was the end of a somewhat disappointing season for the Wildcat bandwagon, er,
faithful. Finishing third in the SEC East and garnering just and eight-seed
in the Dance, you could tell that this wasn’t your typical Wildcat
team. The bad news? They’re lost most of their frontcourt from last
year, and could be in for a long season. They’re returning Bobby Perry and
Randolph “SuperFax” Morris in the frontcourt, but their backcourt could cause a
lot of problems throughout the season. They are, of course, nationally
ranked because they have the word “Kentucky” on the front of their jersey, but I
don’t think they’ll hold that for too long. Look for early losses against
UNC, Indiana, and Louisville to set the tone for a long season, and I wouldn’t
be shocked if fans at Rupp are as disappointed this season as fans at
Commonwealth Stadium will this Saturday (Look! Foreshadowing for Friday’s
Mike and Jay’s Football Picks!). We’ll see UK as a #4 seed when all is said
and done – not in the NCAA tourney, but in the SEC East.
JW: I'm with Mike, here - the Top 25 ranking is only
justified by their name and coach. Any other team that finished like the
Wildcats did last year, and lost the type of players UK did wouldn't imagine
being ranked in the top 25 to start the season. Luckily, thanks to their
pre-conference season, that ranking won't last. I don't see Kentucky as
being more than a middle-tier SEC East team, and it would take a lot of luck to
contend for the division. Sure, they could get hot at the right time,
particularly if the freshmen can get accustomed to the system, and make a run in
the SEC Tournament, but the regular season should be a disappointment under
Kentucky's normal standards. Look for a mediocre pre-conference season
before an equally mediocre SEC season, with a few notable wins, but nothing
Tubby can really hang his hat on.
South Carolina
JW: The constant thorn in Vanderbilt's side is looking
to turn two straight NIT championships into an NCAA bid, but they'll have to do
it without the man everyone loves to hate, Ronaldo Balkman. The Gamecocks
have what appears to be an easy pre-conference schedule, with the GLARING
exception of a January 7th game against Kansas in Columbia - the last game
before they open SEC play at Georgia. USC could very well be undefeated
coming into this game, and with it being nationally-televised on CBS, you know
the fans will be coming out of the woodwork. The only notable possibility
for a hiccup before this game would be down in Waco on December 9th, against
Baylor. If the Gamecocks want to be taken seriously as an SEC contender
and not just an NIT-every-year team, they should win this game fairly
easily. If not, expect more of the same from the Gamecocks.
MO: After losing Balkman in the first round – hahaha,
that can’t be right. You mean the Knicks took Ronaldo Blackman in the first
round before Rajon Rondo and a slew of other quality
guards? BUAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! I’d say they should build off their NIT
success, but they couldn’t seem to do it last either, so I’m not expecting to
much them this year either. A victory over South Carolina State by a
whopping three points to open the season does nothing to inspire my
confidence. I think they’ll share the same fate as Georgia – they’ll lose
some that they shouldn’t and underachieve in the SEC season, battling to stay
out of the cellar.
Tennessee
MO: After winning the SEC East last year, Tennessee
looked poised to make a run in the postseason. Only, they didn’t – they
lost to South Carolina in their first and only game in the SEC Tournament, then
were upset by Wichita St. in the second round of the NCAAs (and this after
narrowly avoiding a HUGE upset at the hands of Winthrop, leading a last-second
shot to advance). Nevertheless, they’ll be remembered for the season, and
not how it ended. That, to me, could be their downfall. In addition,
they’re losing Major Wingate and CJ Watson, two key players in their magical
season. Bruce Pearl was the shot in the arm that the team needed to
overachieve this season, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can do it again
this year. They’re ranked near the bottom of the opening Top 25 polls, and
could come out strong against their weaker non-conference
opponents. They’ll face some adversity in games against Memphis, Texas, and
Ohio State, but should end up with at least one win out of those
games. Overall, Pearl’s sophomore campaign should have some success, but
not nearly the level they saw last season. They’ll finish near the middle
of the East and can hope to avenge their postseason woes from a season ago, this
time as a far lower seed.
JW: Tennessee is going to be a victim of its own
success last year. I'm not saying last season was a fluke, but
expectations are high in Knoxville, and I just don't think Pearl can repeat what
he pulled off a year ago. The pre-conference game to watch is Texas, as
Tennessee is generally ranked right around them in most national polls. If
they can pull of the win there, they'll probably roll into their SEC schedule
with one loss. However, either way, I just don't think UT has the guns to
make the run they did last year. That's not to say they'll be bad - but I
don't see them contending for the SEC East. Look for an NCAA tournament
appearance again, but not a #2 seed like last time. Of course, by the time
they hit the tournament, people might have lowered expectations for the Vols, so
they won't have a target on their back and might be able to do some damage in
the tournament instead of bowing out in the second round.
Vanderbilt
JW: After a very disappointing season last year, we're
all hoping the Commodores have found the chemistry to put something special
together. With solid wing players Shan Foster and Derrick Byars back, and
what looks to be a very talented point guard in Jermaine Beal, the Commodores
should have a good amount of scoring threats. But what good is a scoring
threat if you can't rebound? That was the biggest problem last year, and
everyone (including myself) fears that it'll rear its ugly head again this year,
particularly without an established big man down low. Coach Stallings
looks to be shifting to a more uptempo, run-and-gun offense which should be very
fun to watch and will put a lot of points on the board. The question is
whether or not the team can adapt to this new system and be able to keep other
teams from taking full advantage of turnovers and Vanderbilt's relative lack of
depth. Early pre-conference games against Georgetown and Wake Forest will
say a lot about this team, although I don't see wins in either of these games as
a must for Vandy to have a good season. There are a lot of "what ifs" for
this team, and as the standard Vanderbilt fan, I'm optimistic for big things out
of our new players, and an improvement in our weaknesses from last year.
When the SEC schedule starts, I expect the 'Dores to have 3-4 losses, but
showing signs of coming together as a team. I have to say that I'm with
most other fans when I say anything less than an NCAA tournament appearance this
year would be a disappointment. Luckily, I'm not expecting to be
disappointed.
MO: It’s always folly to try and predict a Vanderbilt
basketball season, and that may prove to be especially true this time
around. The Dores have certainly underachieved since reaching the Sweet
Sixteen a few years back. While rebounding was a problem, consistency was
the key ingredient from what was haled as one of the most athletic teams in
years. After losing a couple key pieces from last season, traditional
wisdom says the team would be weaker, but I’m not too sure about that. If
Skuchas can have a senior season resurgence similar to what we saw from Terrell
last season, Vanderbilt could have a great season. The important factor, as
Jay has mentioned, is rebounding. Too many offensive boards for the
opposition helped Vanderbilt give a few games away. Luckily for the Dores,
I don’t see that happening this season. Grabbing rebounds has been the
focus of the off-season, which will spur what Coach Kevin Stallings has called a
new fast-paced offense. Vanderbilt will surprise a number of teams on the
long path to the NCAA Tournament, returning after what we all feel was a absence
that was far too long.