Top 25 For Thursday, November, 23, 2006
# Team Won Lost Rating
1 Ohio State 12 0 128.2
2 Michigan 11 1 124.4
3 Southern Cal 9 1 122.9
4 B Y U 9 2 119.7
5 West Virginia 9 1 119.3
6 Oklahoma 9 2 119.1
7 Texas 9 2 119.0
8 Hawaii 8 2 118.8
9 Louisville 9 1 118.3
10 Notre Dame 10 1 117.3
11 Arkansas 10 1 117.1
12 California 8 3 116.8
13 Va. Tech 9 2 116.4
14 Wisconsin 11 1 114.9
15 Tennessee 8 3 114.7
16 Florida 10 1 114.2
17 Nebraska 8 3 113.7
18 L S U 9 2 113.6
19 T C U 9 2 113.0
20 South Carolina 6 5 112.6
21 Nevada 9 2 112.4
22 Texas Tech 7 5 112.2
23 Arizona 6 5 111.5
24 Clemson 8 3 111.2
25 Penn State 8 4 111.1
Southeastern Conference
East
Tennessee 8 3 114.7
Florida 10 1 114.2
South Carolina 6 5 112.6
Georgia 6 5 106.1
Kentucky 7 4 98.3
Vanderbilt 4 8 95.7
West
Arkansas 10 1 117.1
L S U 9 2 113.6
Auburn 10 2 110.3
Alabama 6 6 102.8
Ole Miss 3 8 98.7
Miss. State 3 8 98.2
*** A Festive Weekend of Games***
Last Week’s
Games
The PiRates are stuck at 76% success and
are going nowhere, so I’m discontinuing this section. The new P6TR rating picked 19 of 20
games correctly and missed only on UCLA-Arizona State (two of the 6 ratings
called for ASU to win by less than one point).
This Week’s
Schedule
There are several interesting games this
week with all the closing rivalry clashes plus other games that carry bowl
implications. Nothing rivals the
big game last weekend (and what a game that was), but there will be several good
choices to sit in your favorite reclining chair and “veg out” after filling your
tummy.
SEC games for the
week.
Mississippi State @Ole Miss
The Egg
Bowl
PiRate Predicts: Ole Miss 17
Mississippi State 12
Peiser
Predicts: These two teams are ending
the season on up-ticks. This game
could be played 10 times with each team winning five games, but I’ll go with the
Rebels to get revenge for last year’s blowout loss in Starkville. State out-gained the Rebs 409-189 in
2005!
P6TR: None
South Carolina @ Clemson
PiRate Predicts: Clemson 28
South Carolina 24
Peiser
Predicts: The Tigers are looking to
lock up a Gator Bowl bid and should have enough horsepower to whip the Gamecocks
by 7-10 points.
P6TR:
None
Georgia Tech @ Georgia
PiRate Predicts: Georgia 20
Georgia Tech 17
Peiser
Predicts: Matthew Stafford looked
like David Greene against Auburn, while Reggie Ball has looked more like Lucille
Ball against strong defenses. Give
this one to the Bulldogs by a healthy margin.
P6TR: None
L S U @ Arkansas
PiRate Predicts: Arkansas 21
L S U 13
Peiser
Predicts: The Hogs are already in
the SEC Championship Game and they have virtually no shot at going to Glendale
to face Ohio State. This game is
strictly for braggin’ rights. LSU
has been limping home at the close and could be inadequately prepared for this
game. Look for Arkansas to win
without much excitement. Call it a
7-10 point affair.
P6TR: Arkansas
Florida @ Florida State
PiRate Predicts: Florida 17
Florida State 13
Peiser
Predicts: The Seminoles hung on for
dear life to edge Western Michigan last week, while the Gators beat Western
Carolina 62-0. This sets up a
frequent occurrence when one team struggles with a weaker opponent while their
next opponent has a breather. The
team that had the breather wins about 85% of these games if they are relatively
even match-ups. The Gators are more
than that, so give Urban’s boys the road win. Call it Florida by 10-15 points.
P6TR: Florida
Kentucky @ Tennessee
PiRate Predicts: Tennessee 47 Kentucky
24
Peiser
Predicts: Kentucky has enough
offense to score three or four times against the Vols, but they should also give
up five or more scores. It should
be an interesting game, but Tennessee should gain control of if early and hold
on to a 14-20 point victory.
P6TR: Tennessee
Key Local
Game
Troy @ Middle Tennessee
PiRate Predicts: MTSU 27
Troy 14
Peiser
Predicts: MTSU is on the cusp of
advancing to their first Division I-A bowl game. Win or lose, the odds are in their
favor, as even if they finish runner-up to Troy, at 7-5, they will have an
advantage over all the 6-6 teams when at-large bids are doled out. It is probably a moot point, as the Blue
Raiders are going to win and sew up the automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl.
P6TR: None
A Baker’s Dozen Other Games of
Note
Boston College @ Miami (Thanksgiving)
PiRate Predicts: Boston College 24
Miami 21
Peiser
Predicts: Miami has a date in Boise,
Idaho, if they can win this game, while Boston College has a shot at the ACC
Championship game. Which team do
you think has more to play for and will come out firing on all cylinders? It won’t be the hometown Hurricanes; the
orange and green are falling into the Atlantic Ocean. B.C. is going to win 10 games for the
first time since Doug Flutie won the Heisman Trophy. An Eagle win throws the MPC Computers
Bowl open for an at-large team.
P6TR: None
Texas A&M @ Texas (Black Friday)
PiRate Predicts: Texas 45
Texas A&M 24
Peiser
Predicts: This is a must-win game
for the Longhorns. If they win,
they take the South Division flag and advance to the Big 12 title game. If they lose, an Oklahoma win over
Oklahoma State gives the Sooners the title. The Aggies are still well shy of where
they used to be, but they can score points. Look for a close game to turn into a
rout in the final 20-25 minutes.
P6TR: Texas
Oregon @ Oregon State The Civil War (Black
Friday)
PiRate Predicts: Oregon State 30
Oregon 24
Peiser
Predicts: To the winner goes the Sun
Bowl, unless Southern Cal makes it to the BCS Championship Game. Six weeks ago, this looked like a Duck
blowout. A few weeks ago, this
looked like a tossup game. Now, it
looks like a Beaver bashing the quackers out of Oregon. Oregon State is playing as well as
anybody on the Coast, and it looks like they will turn Reser Stadium into a big
duck hunt on Friday.
P6TR: None
South Florida @ West Virginia
PiRate Predicts: West Virginia 42
South Florida 21
Peiser
Predicts: The Mountaineers are two
victories away from a BCS at-large bowl bid and possibly an automatic one. USF needs to win this game to guarantee
themselves a bowl with seven wins.
With six wins, they still have a shot at the new Birmingham Bowl. That’s what they should expect, since
they have no chance at Mountaineer Field.
West Virginia will run up and down the field against the Bulls’ smaller
defensive line.
P6TR: West Virginia
Wake Forest @ Maryland
PiRate Predicts: PiRates rate this game a draw with Maryland favored by
two-tenths of a point.
Peiser
Predicts: This game will decide the
ACC Atlantic Division champion. If
Wake Forest wins, they own the tie-breaker over Boston College. If Maryland wins, they will also need a
Miami win over Boston College to be division champs. Both teams’ defenses should find success
against the offenses they face, and this should come down to one or two big
plays. Give the small edge to the
home team, and expect to see Boston College playing Georgia Tech for the ACC
title. The loser will fall to
fourth or fifth choice in the bowl pecking order.
P6TR: None
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
PiRate Predicts: Oklahoma 35
Oklahoma State 30
Peiser
Predicts: Oklahoma has relied on
strong defense since Adrian Peterson went out for the year. The Sooners have yielded 12 points a
game in their last six contests.
Oklahoma State is a one-dimensional team, and that one dimension is
offense. The Cowboys average 37
points per game, but they give up 25 points per game (31 per game in B12
play). When this game is in
Stillwater, it is usually close.
OSU could pull off the upset, and it wouldn’t be surprising, but OU could
be playing for the South Division title.
If that is the case, they will win by more than a touchdown. If Texas has already clinched the title,
Oklahoma may win by less than a touchdown.
The Sooners are still in the hunt for a BCS at-large bowl bid, competing
with the second best SEC team for the final spot should Boise State lose this
week.
P6TR: Oklahoma
SMU @ Rice
PiRate Predicts: Rice 31 SMU
28
Peiser
Predicts: Big Congratulations go to
both of these programs for becoming bowl eligible. Rice hasn’t been to a bowl since the
1961 Bluebonnet Bowl, while SMU hasn’t been to a bowl since becoming the only
team ever to suffer the death penalty.
Unfortunately, the way things are shaping up, only the winner of this
game will actually get a bowl invitation.
Both are on a roll and hot, and this game should be one of the two most
exciting games of the week. I think
the Owls will come from behind more than once and pull out a squeaker. Todd Graham should get some votes for
National Coach of the Year and will jump way up on the short lists of schools
trying to fill voids. He took over
a 1-10 team that ran the triple option spread offense and won in year one with a
balanced, pro-style offense (directed by offensive coordinator Major
Applewhite).
P6TR: None
Marshall @ Southern Mississippi
PiRate Predicts: Southern Miss 24
Marshall 17
Peiser
Predicts: Southern Miss is playing
for a spot in the C-USA title game, while Marshall must win to become bowl
eligible. The Eagles are the hot
team in the East Division right now, and they should hold off the Herd for the
win.
P6TR:
Southern Miss
Brigham Young @ Utah The Holy
War
PiRate Predicts: BYU 41 Utah
28
Peiser
Predicts: A three-point loss at
Arizona on opening day and a double overtime loss at Boston College are all
that’s keeping BYU out of a BCS at-large bowl. Since week three, the Cougars have
played like a top 10 team. Utah has
been a huge disappointment as the 7-4 Utes were expected to contend for a 12-0
regular season. Utah has won the
last four games in this series, and BYU is primed to end that string this
week. Look for BYU to score points
in a hurry at one point in this game and turn a close match into a double-digit
win.
P6TR:
BYU
Arizona State @ Arizona
PiRate Predicts: Arizona 35
Arizona State 27
Peiser
Predicts: Five weeks ago, Arizona
coach Mike Stoops was starting to take a little heat, as the then 2-4 Wildcats
were expected to win more than they lose and make it to a bowl game. Arizona State was supposed to win eight
or nine games this year, and the Sun Devils have fallen short of expectations
for the third time in four seasons.
Coach Dirk Koetter’s seat is more than hot; it is smoldering. A loss here could be the end for the
former Boise State wonder boy. Look
for the Wildcats to clinch a winning season and knock ASU down to 6-6 with a
5-10 point win. It will more than
likely be curtains for Koetter; he could wind up as an assistant at Colorado.
P6TR:
None
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
PiRate Predicts: Louisville
33 Pittsburgh 21
Peiser
Predicts: A month ago, this looked
like an ambush game for the Cardinals.
Pitt, at 6-1, looked strong enough to threaten UL at Heinz Field. Four consecutive losses later, the
Panthers are skating on thin ice at 6-5.
Another loss could place them back on the bubble for a bowl. At 6-6, if the Birmingham Bowl were to
go for a Northern Illinois, the Panthers could be the odd team out. Louisville can sew up the Big East title
with wins over Pitt and Connecticut if Rutgers loses at West Virginia next
week. Look for both to happen. The Cards will win by 14 or more
points.
P6TR:
Louisville
Notre Dame @ Southern Cal
PiRate Predicts: Southern Cal 34
Notre Dame 21
Peiser
Predicts: This becomes a two-game
sprint for the Trojans. They must
beat Notre Dame and UCLA back-to-back; they probably must beat both handily, or
they won’t jump over Michigan. Win
or lose these next two games, the Trojans are in the Rose Bowl at worst. Notre Dame doesn’t have enough defense
to stop the long winning streak at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum. It seems like USC has won so many
consecutive games there, the Dodgers were playing in the Coliseum the last time
the they lost at home. The Irish
have two chances in this game, slim and slimmer. Look for USC to win by 7-10.
P6TR: Southern Cal
Boise State @ Nevada
PiRate Predicts: Nevada 34
Boise State 28
Peiser
Predicts: I mentioned that the
Rice-SMU game was one of two exciting games this week. This is the other one. The Broncos are one win away from sewing
up a berth in the Fiesta Bowl. I
have been pointing to this game for six weeks. I think the Wolf Pack will pull off the
shocker of the week and mess up everybody’s bowl predictions. Nevada knocked off Fresno State to close
out last year’s regular season, and this team is a touchdown better than last
year’s team. Nevada’s defense is
much improved since the beginning of the season, and they have what it takes to
slow down the Boise Express. Look
for Hall of Fame Coach Chris Ault to take a page from Wyoming coach Joe Glenn
and throw multiple pass rushes and secondary coverages at BSU QB Jared
Zabransky. Last year, Georgia
pressures him into more interceptions than completions until the game was out of
reach. Wyoming would have upset Boise State back in September if not for a
Bronco interception return for a touchdown. Nevada will pull off the upset, and the
game may turn out to be not all that close (or BSU will make me look
foolish).
P6TR: Boise St. (I’m going against
computers that are 95% accurate when they all agree on the winner, so I’m either
totally out of my mind, or onto something big.)
Bowl
Projecting
Let’s take a closer look at the bowls
and the conferences since it’s almost time for these to become
official.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State,
Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are already bowl
eligible. Both Virginia and Miami
need one more win to get to 6-6.
The Cavaliers must play Virginia Tech, while the Hurricanes face Boston
College. There’s a strong chance
the ACC will come up one team short.
That will open an at-large spot for some team to head to Boise and the
MPC Bowl.
1. BCS Bowl (Orange)—Georgia
Tech
2. Chick-Fil-A—Virginia
Tech
3.
Gator—Clemson
4. Emerald—Florida
State
5. Champs Sports—Boston
College
6. Music City—Wake
Forest
7. Meineke Car
Care—Maryland
8. MPC Computers—will select at-large
team
Big East Conference
Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh,
Rutgers, South Florida, and West Virginia are bowl eligible, while Connecticut
mathematically still has a chance (would have to beat Cincinnati and
Louisville). The Big East is
guaranteed a BCS Bowl, either the Gator or Sun Bowl, the International Bowl, and
the Texas Bowl. The Birmingham Bowl
can select either a Big East or MAC team (I’m not exactly sure if the 7-5 vs.
6-6 rule affects this choice).
1. BCS
(Rose)—Louisville
2. BCS (Orange)—West
Virginia
3.
Sun—Rutgers
4.
International—Pittsburgh
5. Texas—South
Florida
6.
Birmingham—Cincinnati
Note: I spoke with Bo Kerr at the Papa John’s Birmingham Bowl Wednesday
morning and was told the 6-6/7-5 rule does not apply to the Birmingham Bowl’s
selection. They will take a Big East team if one is bowl eligible at 6-6, even
if the MAC has 7-5 teams available.
Since there are already six bowl eligible Big East teams, this conference
is guaranteed the spot.
The Big 10 Conference
Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State,
Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin have clinched bowl
bids. The Big 10 has seven
allocated bids, but Michigan is a shoo-in to receive an at-large BCS Bowl
bid. Thus, the Motor City Bowl will
have to search for an at-large team.
1. BCS Bowl (BCS Championship)—Ohio
State
2. BCS Bowl (BCS
Championship)—Michigan
3. Capital One—*Wisconsin* (has already
accepted this bid)
4. Outback—*Penn State* (has already accepted this
bid)
5. Champs Sports—*Purdue* (has already accepted this bid)
6. Alamo—*Iowa* (has already accepted this
bid)
7. Insight—*Minnesota* (has already
accepted this bid)
8. Motor City—Will select at-large
team
The Big 12 Conference
Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri,
Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech are
bowl eligible. These nine teams are
fighting over eight bowl allotments.
One team could be out of contention if they are
6-6.
1. BCS Bowl
(Fiesta)—Texas
2.
Cotton—Oklahoma
3.
Gator—Nebraska
4. Holiday—Texas
A&M
5. Alamo—Texas
Tech
6.
Insight—Missouri
7. Independence—Kansas
State
8. Texas—Oklahoma
State
Kansas 6-6 and hoping enough 6-5 teams
lose (sorry, KU, I don’t see it happening.
You will have to fight it out with KSU and OSU for the last two
spots.)
Conference USA
Here’s where the selecting gets
tricky. East Carolina, Southern
Mississippi, Houston, Rice, SMU, and Tulsa are already bowl eligible. UTEP can get there with a win over 1-10
Memphis. Marshall needs an upset at
Southern Miss to get to six wins.
The Rice-SMU loser will be 6-6, and if ECU loses to North Carolina State,
they will be 6-6. There are five
bowl bids to be awarded, and there will be six, seven, or eight teams
available. If ECU beats NC State,
it becomes easy, as five teams will be 7-5 or better and will automatically get
the five bids. If the Pirates lose
to the Wolfpack, then one 6-6 team will beat out the others for the fifth
bid. Chances of a sixth bid would
be very slim.
1. Liberty—Southern
Mississippi
2.
GMAC—Houston
3. Birmingham—East
Carolina
4. Armed
Forces—Tulsa
5. New
Orleans—Rice
UTEP and SMU 6-6 and dreaming for the
phone to ring
I-A Independents
There are only four independents, yet
there are three bowl agreements.
Notre Dame and Navy have qualified for bowls, while Army has
not.
1. BCS Bowl (Sugar)—Notre
Dame
2. Meineke Car Care—*Navy * (has already
accepted this bid)
3. Poinsettia—Will select an at-large
team (Army didn’t qualify)
Mid-American Conference
Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern
Illinois, Ohio, and Western Michigan are bowl eligible. Akron and Bowling Green still can become
bowl eligible. Kent State and
Northern Illinois are one win away from the magical 7-5 finish which would vault
them to the top of the at-large bubble (all 7-5 teams, regardless of conference,
must be selected to at-large bowl games before any 6-6 team can be
considered)
1. GMAC—Ohio
U
2. Motor City—Central
Michigan
3. International—Western
Michigan
Northern Illinois and Kent State 7-5 and
going somewhere as at-large selection
Mountain West
Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming
are bowl eligible. New Mexico needs
only to defeat 2-8 San Diego State to become bowl eligible, while Air Force must
defeat UNLV and TCU to do so. If
New Mexico wins Saturday, this will be easy.
1. Las Vegas—*Brigham Young * (Has
already accepted this bid)
2.
Poinsettia—TCU
3. Armed
Forces—Utah
4. New Mexico—New
Mexico
Wyoming 6-6 and staying
home
Pacific 10 Conference
This is a conference with eight bowl
eligible teams trying to fill six allotments. Arizona, Arizona State, California,
Oregon, Oregon State, Southern Cal, UCLA, and Washington State are all bowl
eligible. The Arizona-Arizona State
loser, UCLA (if it loses to USC), and Washington State will finish 6-6, and two
of these teams will miss out unless most of the other 6-5 teams lose as
well.
1. BCS Bowl (Rose)—Southern
California
2.
Holiday—California
3. Sun—Oregon
State
4. Las
Vegas—Oregon
5.
Emerald—Arizona
6. Hawaii—U C L
A
Arizona State and Washington State 6-6
and praying
Southeastern Conference
The SEC and Big 12 will be fighting it
out for the last BCS at-large bowl bid if Boise State fails to qualify. Since I am going with Nevada to end the
Broncos’ chances, I am giving the SEC the slight nod to get the extra bowl
bid. Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn,
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, and Tennessee have qualified
for bowl bids. If the SEC doesn’t
get two BCS bowl bids, then one team will more than likely miss
out.
1. BCS Bowl
(Sugar)—Florida
2. BCS Bowl
(Fiesta)—Arkansas
3. Capital
One—Auburn
4.
Outback—Tennessee
5. Cotton—L S
U
6.
Chick-Fil-A—Georgia
7.
Liberty—Kentucky
8. Music City—South
Carolina
9.
Independence—Alabama
If Boise State beats Nevada, then either South Carolina (if they lose to
Clemson) or Alabama will be shut out of the bowls this year due to 7-5/6-6
law.
Sunbelt
This weakest league in I-A could
possibly wind up with three bowl participants, and that would be plain
ridiculous. If Troy beats MTSU and
then beats Florida International, then the Trojans would get the automatic bid,
while MTSU would be high on the bubble for an at-large bid at 7-5. The winner of the Arkansas State and
Louisiana Lafayette game will also be 7-5 (assuming ULL beats 2-8
UL-Monroe).
1. New Orleans—M T S
U
Either Louisiana Lafayette or Arkansas
State will be 7-5 and stand a good chance of replacing the Big 10 at the Motor
City Bowl.
Western Athletic Conference
The Boise State-Nevada game affects
about 10-12 bowl games. If Boise
State wins, they are headed to the Fiesta Bowl (possibly the Rose Bowl). If Nevada wins, then Boise State plays
in their home bowl. Besides those
two teams, Hawaii and San Jose State are bowl eligible. The Spartans are 6-4 and with one win in
their final two (vs. Idaho and Fresno St.), they would jump to the top of the
at-large bubble, thanks to geography.
1. MPC Computers—Boise
State
2. Hawaii—*Hawaii * (Has already
accepted this bid)
3. New
Mexico—Nevada
San Jose State 8-4 and seeing some
Poinsettias in their future
At-Large Bowl Predictions
1. Poinsettia—San Jose
State
2. MPC Computers—Northern
Illinois
3.
Motor City—Louisiana Lafayette