Note: P6TR is the new experimental Pick 6 Technical Rating. When 6 particular computer rankings
agree on the winning team, these computers have been correct 94% of the time,
85% when the official spread is less than 10 points. None of the six individually pick the
winner more than 78% of the time.
The Early Bowl
Games
Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego)
Tuesday, December 19 @ 8 PM EST
ESPN-2
T C U Horned Frogs (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
(7-5)
PiRate Predicts: T C U
28 Northern Illinois
10
P6TR: TCU
TCU’s run defense is strong enough to
hold ace NIU tailback Garrett Wolfe under 100 yards. The Huskies will play this game without
starting quarterback Phil Horvath, who sustained a season-ending injury against
Central Michigan for the second consecutive year (arm fracture in 2005/knee
injury in 2006).
After stumbling early against Brigham
Young and Utah, TCU has recovered to win 10 or more games for the fifth year in
the last seven. The Horned Frogs
can run for 200 yards and pass for 200 yards in the same game, and that type of
versatility combined with an excellent defense should allow them to cruise to a
rather easy victory.
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, December 21 @ 8 PM EST
ESPN
Brigham Young Cougars (10-2) vs. Oregon Ducks
(8-4)
PiRate Predicts: BYU 30
Oregon 23
P6TR: None
This should be an interesting, close
ball game. Former BYU head coach
Gary Crowton is the offensive coordinator for Oregon. The Ducks now use the old BYU offense
made famous by legendary coach Lavell Edwards. BYU has been the best team west of the
Rockies since the end of September.
The Cougars look as strong as their 1996 team. As they season progressed, they averaged
more than 40 points and 500 total yards of offense per game, while yielding less
than 14 points per game.
Oregon closed the season with three
straight losses, and the Ducks’ offense and defense disappeared at the same
time. Expect both sides of the ball
to play more like the Oregon team of September, but it won’t be enough. Go with BYU to win game number 11 in an
exciting, high-scoring match.
New Orleans Bowl
Friday, December 22 @ 8 PM EST
ESPN
Troy Trojans (7-5) vs. Rice Owls (7-5)
PiRate Predicts: Rice 28
Troy 17
P6TR: Rice
Normally in this situation, the team
from the smaller conference would be the sentimental favorite by most of the
nation’s viewers. This time, the
favorite will be the team most viewers want to see succeed. For Rice, it has been 45 years since
they were last in a bowl. In 1961,
Jess Neely’s Owls appeared in the Bluebonnet Bowl and fell to Kansas 33-7. Their last bowl win occurred in the 1954
Cotton Bowl. In that infamous game,
Rice beat Alabama 28-6. It was
infamous for an incident that has never happened in major college football
since. Alabama’s Tommy Lewis left
the bench to tackle Rice’s Dicky Maegle.
The officials penalized the Tide by awarding Rice a touchdown. Lewis was later quoted as saying he had
“Too much ‘Bama in him.”
Troy is another team from the state of
Alabama. They pulled off the big
win at MTSU to earn this automatic berth.
This will be their second bowl game in three years; they lost the Silicon
Valley Classic to Northern Illinois in 2004.
Rice looked anything like a bowl team at
the beginning of the season. The
Owls opened the season with losses to Houston, UCLA, Texas, and Florida State. After a win over Army, they
lost to Tulane to drop to 1-5.
Then, Coach Todd Graham’s team began winning close games. A one-point upset win over UAB started
the ball rolling. Rice then pulled
five more upsets-- at Central Florida, at UTEP, at Tulsa, East Carolina, and
SMU. They were out-gained in most
of the games, but they found a way to win in the final minutes.
Troy has not set the woods on fire in
winning seven games either. They
have been out-gained in more than one of their victories. The win over MTSU that put them in the
driver’s seat saw the Trojans do almost nothing offensively for 57 minutes. They scored 14 points in the final
minutes of the game to pull out the shocking win.
This game should be interesting and
worth watching, if only to see something nobody 44-years old or younger has ever
witnessed. Go with the Owls to win
the game, but Troy could out-gain them 400-350 yards. I think the game will be lower scoring
than expected, and no off-the-bench tackles will be
made.
PapaJohns.com Bowl (Birmingham)
Saturday, December 23 @ 1 PM EST
ESPN-2
East Carolina Pirates (7-5) vs. South Florida Bulls
(8-4)
PiRate Predicts: South Florida 23
East Carolina 17
P6TR: South Florida
It’s all about defense with South
Florida. The Bulls give up just 120
rushing yards and 177 passing yards per game. They succeed by combining exceptional
quickness with great teamwork, leading to many gang tackles.
East Carolina is similar to USF but not
as talented. The Pirates won five
of their last six games to earn this bid.
USF has the better talent and should win
the game. However, don’t ever count
out a Skip Holtz-coached team when they have had three weeks to prepare for a
game. ECU should be ready to play
and give USF a battle, but I’ll go with the Bulls in a close
one.
New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque)
Saturday, December 23 @ 4:30 PM EST
ESPN
New Mexico Lobos (6-6) vs. San Jose State Spartans
(8-4)
PiRate Predicts: New Mexico 31
San Jose State 21
P6TR: None
The Lobos host this inaugural bowl game
created for the express purpose of inviting either New Mexico State or them
every year when one of them is bowl eligible. Coach Rocky Long is to be commended for
taking a UNM team picked to finish 8th or 9th in the
Mountain West and guiding The Lobos to a 6-6 regular season record. Why he hasn’t been on bigger schools’
coaching searches is a mystery.
San Jose State also was picked to finish
last in their conference in the preseason polls. Former Arizona and Hawaii coach Dick
Tomey guided the Spartans to an 8-4 record.
New Mexico played a considerably tougher
schedule and gets the benefit of the home field. That should be enough to handle the
Spartans, but it should be a close and exciting game. The only fly in the ointment for New
Mexico is the loss of offensive coordinator Bob Toledo, who just accepted the
head coaching job at Tulane.
Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth, TX)
Saturday, December 23 @ 8 PM EST
ESPN
Utah Utes (7-5) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
(8-4)
PiRate Predicts: Utah 24
Tulsa 23
P6TR: None
Both of these squads expected to be
playing in higher-tiered bowls.
Utah was supposed to repeat their 2004 results this year, while Tulsa was
considered a contender for an 11-1 or 12-0 season. Instead, these two teams will meet at
TCU’s Amon Carter Stadium for a night game in what could be a chilly
stadium.
As of this writing, Utah quarterback
Brett Ratliff is under investigation for assault and battery. The controversy surrounding the incident
in a Salt Lake City club may affect his ability to prepare for this game. I think once the Utes arrive in Texas,
it will no longer be a distraction.
Tulsa coach Steve Kragthorpe is on the
radar screen for one or more open positions (including Alabama) and figured
heavily in the Miami search. This
could cause some distraction with his team.
Tulsa’ pass defense and Utah’s rushing
defense should control their counterparts in this game. This will be a game of several big
defensive plays surrounded by a couple of big offensive plays. It’s basically a toss-up, but I’ll go
with Utah to win its sixth consecutive bowl game.
Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu)
Sunday, December 24 @ 8 PM EST
ESPN
Hawaii Warriors (10-3) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
(7-5)
PiRate Predicts: Hawaii 38
Arizona State 31
P6TR: None
What has Arizona State gotten itself
into by having to play in this bowl?
Head Coach Dirk Koetter was given his walking papers after the end of the
regular season. New coach Dennis Erickson will not participate in this bowl, but he is generating quite the buzz
in Phoenix.
Hawaii averages 48 points and more than
580 yards per game at home, but they are not infallible on the island. Oregon State beat the Warriors in the
regular season finale.
Arizona State is no Oregon State, and
they will not beat Hawaii. However,
they should hold Colt Brennan under 400 yards passing. I see Hawaii winning by about four to
seven points and less than 70 total points being
scored.
Coming
Next Week: A look at the December 26 to December 31 Bowls