Note: P6TR is the new experimental Pick
6 Technical Rating. When 6
particular computer rankings agree on the winning team, these computers have
been correct 94% of the time, 85% when the official spread is less than 10
points. None of the six
individually pick the winner more than 78% of the time.
The 2007 Bowl
Games
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Monday, January 1 @ 11 AM EST
ESPN
Tennessee Volunteers (9-3) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
(8-4)
PiRate Predicts: Tennessee 24
Penn State 23
P6TR: None (Tennessee picked in 4 of the
6)
These two schools have a history between
them. The first time they met back
in 1971, Penn State was 10-0 and outscoring opponents by five touchdowns per
game. The Vols pulled off the 31-11
upset. A year later in the first
night game in Neyland Stadium history, Tennessee won again 28-21. On January 1, 1992, The Nittany Lions
trounced Tennessee 42-17 in the Fiesta Bowl. Two years later at the Citrus Bowl, Penn
State faced a Vols team that came into the game outscoring its opponents by 30
points per game. The orange and
white were strongly favored, but Joe Pa’s troops clobbered the Vols
31-13.
Of course, none of this past history
matters to anybody but the fans, as most of these players were less than 10
years old the last time these two faced off. What does matter is whether Tennessee’s
rushing offense has found some answers in the December practices. In the final half of the season, the
Vols averaged just 90 yards rushing per game; throw out the anomaly where they
blitzed Vanderbilt for 163 rushing yards, and the Vols averaged just 75 yards
rushing in the other five down the stretch. Penn State’s defense will load up on the
pass rush and drop an extra man in secondary coverage if Tennessee doesn’t show
up with a respectable ground game.
Given five weeks to prepare, I think that will happen. Go with the Vols, but it should be very
close.
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Monday, January 1 @ 11:30 AM EST
Fox
Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) vs. Auburn Tigers
(10-2)
PiRate Predicts: Nebraska 27
Auburn 24
P6TR: None (Split 3 to 3)
This storied bowl game isn’t what it
used to be. Several national
championships were decided on this old field. Now, it ranks on par with the Gator
Bowl.
This game features Nebraska’s excellent
all-around offense against Auburn’s spectacular defense. Nebraska’s defense was improving as the
season concluded, while Auburn’s offense was headed south. I’m going with the ‘Huskers in this one,
and I think it has a chance to get ugly if Nebraska’s offense gets untracked
early in this one.
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Monday, January 1 @ 1 PM EST
CBS
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-4) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
(10-2)
PiRate Predicts: West Virginia 20
Georgia Tech 16
P6TR: West Virginia
This is another huge contrast game. West Virginia is the unstoppable force,
while Georgia Tech is the immovable object. This time, the force will move the
object. The Mountaineers have too
many weapons and should bulldoze the Techsters with multiple sustained
drives. Georgia Tech will not have
an offensive answer of their own, as WVU will shadow the great Calvin Johnson
well enough to remove him as the deciding factor in this game. The Mountaineers will cruise to
victory.
Capital One Bowl (Orlando)
Monday, January 1 @ 1 PM EST
ABC
Arkansas Razorbacks (10-3) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
(11-1)
PiRate Predicts: Wisconsin 19
Arkansas 17
P6TR: None (Wisconsin picked in 4 of 6)
This is one where I am going strongly
against the computers. Most of the
computers, including my PiRates, pick this to be a close game with the Badgers
as a slight favorite. I think this
could be a major blowout. Arkansas
has been in near-total disarray since the end of the season. Player defections and near defections
combined with dissension adds up to a team that may not relish having to play
this game.
Wisconsin has something to prove. The Badgers deserved to play in a BCS
Bowl game, but no conference can send three teams to the BCS. I have a suspicion that if the games go
just right, the big three of the Big 10 could finish up 1-2-3 in the final
polls.
The Badgers have the best defense in the
nation, and Arkansas’s gimmick offense should struggle in this game. While the PiRates call for UW to win by
2, I personally think it will be a 15-25-point win for Bielema’s
boys.
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
Monday, January 1 @ 5 PM EST
ABC
Southern California Trojans (10-2) vs. Michigan Wolverines
(11-1)
PiRate Predicts: USC 28
Michigan 27
P6TR: None (Split 3-3)
Neither team wants to be here. That’s all you need to know to tell you
that the current bowl system is for the birds. The Rose Bowl deserves its nickname as
the “Granddaddy of all Bowls,” and it doesn’t deserve to be reduced as an
also-ran game (it also should never be played any other day than the January 1
unless that day is a Sunday).
I have previously stated that Michigan’s
losing at Ohio State by less than the number of points Ohio Stadium is worth
means that technically the Wolverines are a point or two better than the
Buckeyes. USC may have the most
talent of any team, but the Trojans fell twice in their own
conference.
I think this game could be played 10
times, and both teams would win five games, two or three of which would go to
overtime. This could be one of
those overtime games, but I’m going with the home town Trojans to win by a
single point.
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)
Monday, January 1 @ 8 PM EST
Fox
Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) vs. Boise State Broncos
(12-0)
PiRate Predicts: Oklahoma 24
Boise State 22
P6TR: None (Oklahoma picked in 4 of 6)
This is a match between the team that is
looking for more respect against the team that was disrespected. Boise State deserves to be here; they
are that good. The whipping they
gave Nevada at Reno proved it beyond a shadow of
doubt.
Oklahoma had a win at Oregon taken away
from them. Had the proper call been
made, the Sooners could very well be here a week later than they are
now.
I think OU is one of the four best teams
in the nation, and Boise State is in the second five. This game should be interesting, but
Oklahoma has too many weapons on both sides of the ball. The Sooners will pull out a close
one.
Orange Bowl (Miami)
Tuesday, January 2 @ 8 PM EST
Fox
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-2) vs. Louisville Cardinals
(11-1)
PiRate Predicts: Louisville 31
Wake Forest 21
P6TR: Louisville
Nobody gave Wake Forest a chance of ever
playing in a BCS Bowl game. Jim
Grobe not only deserves National Coach of the Year accolades, the trophy needs
to be named for him from here on.
That said, Louisville is going to make
the Deacons trip end in heartbreak.
The Cardinals are going to score 28 or more points and pass for 300 or
more yards in this game, and Wake Forest will have no response for that. Look for UL to win its 12th
game rather handily and push for the number two final
ranking.
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
Wednesday, January 3 @ 8 PM EST
Fox
L S U Tigers (10-2) vs.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)
PiRate Predicts: LSU 28
Notre Dame 24
P6TR: LSU
The best part of this game is it is back
in the Superdome. Remember, last
year, the Sugar Bowl was played in Atlanta, and there was no guarantee the
Superdome would ever be fixed.
The sexy pick in the bowl season has
been LSU. Expert analysts are
jumping over each other trying to tell the public that LSU might be the best
team in the nation and would win the title if a playoff were in
effect.
It is true that, on paper, the Tigers
are loaded on both sides of the ball.
It is also true that Notre Dame’s defense is average at best. However, they have one of the best
passing attacks in football.
Quarterback Brady Quinn may be the next Joe Montana, and Montana led his
Irish teams to surprise bowl victories more than
once.
When all is said and done, I will be one
of those analysts trying to sneak under the pile of LSU-worshippers and take the
Tigers without all the fuss. LSU
should win by less than a touchdown in an exciting game. If Quinn’s last pass is for a touchdown,
though…
International Bowl (Toronto)
Saturday, January 6 @ 12 PM EST
ESPN
Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
(7-5)
PiRate Predicts: Cincinnati 35
WMU 24
P6TR: Cincinnati
This game is a novelty game at
best. First off, it is this bowl’s
inaugural game. Second, it will be
played in a foreign country. Third,
it will be the debut game for a coach who guided another team to a bowl game
this year. Bearcats’ new head man
Brian Kelly coached Central Michigan until four weeks ago. He actually will coach in this game for
Cinti. Having already faced his
opponent this year, that is a major boost.
He knows what the Broncos can and probably will do, while WMU cannot make
the same inference back. On top of
that, the Bearcats are clearly the better team.
This game will be going against the NFL
playoffs. Will anybody know who won
it before February?
G M A C Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Sunday, January 7 @ 8 PM EST
ESPN
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (8-5) vs. Ohio Bobcats
(9-4)
PiRate Predicts: Sou. Miss. 24
Ohio 14
P6TR: Sou. Miss.
Why is this bowl being played on a
Sunday night, after a day of NFL playoffs, and on the eve of the big
Championship game? It should have
been played on December 16.
Aside from the fact that Southern Miss
is two touchdowns better than Ohio on paper and Ohio has very little passing
attack, the few diehard football fans left will be finished watching football
for the day after the two pro games.
THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(Glendale, AZ)
Monday, January 8 @ 8 PM EST
Fox
Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) vs. Florida Gators
(12-1)
PiRate Predicts: Ohio State 31
Florida 20
P6TR: None (Ohio State picked in 5 of 6)
As I stated in an editorial a few weeks
ago, I do not recognize this as the National Championship Game. It will have been 51 days between games
for Ohio State when this game kicks off.
It will have been 37 days for Florida. 51 days past this date, many collegiate
teams will be conducting Spring Practice for next
year.
If this game had been played on December
9, Ohio State would have won it by 10-20 points. This is now the first game of a new
season, and you can throw most of the main comparison points out the
window. Both teams will be tight,
and Ohio State will be quite rusty.
The PiRates say Ohio State will win in a
cakewalk, but I think the long layoff will work against them and make this game
quite close. I just cannot get
excited about it, because this isn’t the true match up of the top two
teams. We saw that November 19 in
Columbus.
Epilogue
This article is dedicated to the memory
of a recently lost loved one. Her
name was Australia—she was a cat.
Australia lived for just over 20 years; she should have died before she
was four months old. Back in the
winter of 1987, Australia followed my wife on a night-time walk in the
snow. She weighed barely two pounds
and struggled to move her paws above the three inches of white powder as my wife
walked down Central, Craighead, and Richland Avenues. There were numerous big dogs in that
neighborhood. There were a few
large raccoons roaming around.
There were cars cruising where the driver could have never seen the tiny
kitten. Australia followed my wife
for more than two miles until my wife picked her up and brought her home.
As a four-year old, Australia almost
died again. She had an unknown
virus that veterinarians could not diagnose. She dropped to four pounds. My wife left no stone unturned and
nursed her back to health.
Australia joined us as we moved 1,200
miles to Colorado for two years and moved 1,200 miles back to Nashville. She was 17 years old and in perfect
health. A year later, at the age of
18, she suffered a stroke. Her vet
said there was a one in a thousand chance she would survive it, but once again,
my wife nursed her back to health.
For the last two years (after losing her companion cat), she decided to
become best buddy to our two dogs.
She wanted to eat with them, go outside in the dog pen with them, go for
rides with them, and even snuggle with them for sunny naps. Last week, without warning her kidneys
and liver shut down, and she passed away.
For my wife, it was like losing her only child. We buried her just as I started to work
on this story.
This story is my final story for
Vandymania. Other excellent writers
have taken over the basketball coverage and multiple excellent writers will be
on hand for baseball and football season in 2007. Writing for Vandymania and other Fox
Sports outlets has been a true pleasure with never a dull moment. It has been an excellent beginning to my
second childhood or whatever they call it when we get old and wonder what might
have been if different choices had been made 25 years ago.
This article is equally dedicated to the
readers of Vandymania. As a group,
you guys and gals are some of the most well-educated, well-thought groups of
posters and most of you have senses of humor that the ensemble cast of Saturday
Night Live wished they had. I am
going to miss you all and hope to find time to occasionally return to the board
and post something beneficial. Good
luck to one and all in 2007, and I pray that this will be a happy and peaceful
year for Vanderbilt, The United
States, and the world.