JW: Just when
you thought you were through with our "lively banter," "unique writing
approach," and "lack of any knowledge or research whatsoever," Mike and Jay have
decided to team up once again to relive the magic of our football picking days
with a stab at a sport with which we have even less knowledge, college
basketball! And what better way to put our skills to the test then to make
a few predictions about the upcoming SEC Tournament? The SEC had quite an
interesting year, with the East dominating the West, and a mad rush near the end
of the season for the all-important first round bye. Vanderbilt snagged
that second seed, but then kind of stumbled into the tournament with a really
bad loss at home to Arkansas. Will the 'Dores be able to rebound from that
and put together a good tournament run? Can Florida get back to top
form? How many hits is www.firetubbysmith.com
going to get if UK loses to Bama? Will the West get a single team into the
semifinals? Sure, all these questions (and more) will be answered in just
a few days, but c'mon, it's always fun to speculate!
MO: It’s the
second of three times this season when all teams involved start with a clean
slate, the past serving only as a pecking order and the standard by which each
team will be judged. While that might be far too poetic for a basketball
column, it’s the state of affairs as we continue the most exciting month in all
of college sports. After watching the Commodores roar through the Women’s
SEC Tournament last week-end, can we expect the men to show the same
inspiration? Will the West decide to play basketball this weekend, or tuck
tail and prepare for the Commodores top-ranked baseball squad? Will anyone
be able stop Vanderbilt’s claim to the throne in the three biggest sports
currently running in the SEC? Do I have any more melodramatic questions to
ask you? No! Onto the picks, which, as always, are meticulously
researched by pulling facts out of thin air and have absolutely no bias, aside
from those of the authors.
Sleepers:
East
MO: We’re going
to pick sleepers first, those teams that might elude others in their analysis
but won’t miss our keen eye. In the East, I think you have to be wary of
Georgia. They got the worst of the four-way battle for the second seed in
the East and sit in fifth, just above the lowly Gamecocks. They have to
play Auburn in the first round, but then face Florida in the
quarterfinals. While the Gators looked good in their home win against
Kentucky, let’s face it -- who hasn’t looked against in their home wins against
Kentucky this season? (Again, that’s www.firetubbysmith.com – tell ‘em Mike and Jay
sent ya!) Georgia has one other key intangible here: they HAVE to
have that win (and maybe even one more) to get into the Tournament.
Florida needs it for a one seed, but should still be a two seed if they lose, as
long as they’re not blown out. The Bulldogs should come out on fire, and
I’m not sure if Florida will be able to catch up before it’s too late.
I’ll take Georgia in the upset to make it to the
semifinals.
JW: It's hard to
pick a "sleeper" team out of a division that was just so strong this year.
Even South Carolina is capable of making a run, despite their relatively bad
season. However, I'm with Mike here. It's hard to overlook a Georgia
team that was essentially one game out of a bye in the Tournament. That
five seed is very misleading, and like Mike said, they have a lot to play
for. While I'm not as confident that they'll go as far, I think the
Bulldogs have the potential to do some damage. They should
have no problem with Auburn, and if Florida continues to nap until the NCAA
Tournament, Georgia could definitely surprise them as well. While I don't
think this will happen (as you'll see below), if I'm going to pick a
sleeper in a division where four teams are almost expected to make the
semifinals, Georgia's the way to go.
Sleepers:
West
JW: It's tough
to pick a "sleeper" for the West, if for no other reason than it's so muddled
with mediocre teams. I guess you could say the Bulldogs are favored due to
them winning the West and having a somewhat stronger close to their season, but
let's face it - it's definitely no East. Honestly, I would pick LSU as my
sleeper pick if not for one thing - they're up against UT to start things off,
and I think UT is probably the strongest SEC team out there right now
(sigh). If the Tigers didn't have to match up against UT this early, I'd
pick them as a sleeper to make it to at least the semis, simply because they do
have the talent - they just never got it together this season (Florida win
notwithstanding). With all of that in mind, I think Alabama might actually
be able to make some noise in the tournament. I know, I know, they've lost
5 of their last 7, including a home loss to Auburn, but hear me out.
They're up against an underperforming UK squad that just had a demoralizing loss
to Florida, and they beat UK by double figures back in February. If they
can get past UK they get Mississippi State, another team that is certainly
beatable. While this might be a little too much, I still think of all the
teams not expected to do much, Alabama might be the most able to, uh, do
something. How's that for a ringing endorsement?
MO: That’s about
as ringing as I’d be able to give anyone in the West – I just don’t think that
anyone from this year’s junior division is going to be able to make it into the
semifinals. Consider that fact that the West’s top seed, Mississippi St.,
has the same record as the fifth seed in the East, Georgia, and since Georgia
won this season’s battle of the Bulldogs, MSU would actually be ranked BELOW
Georgia! That said, I will take Arkansas, because of all the West teams
playing on Thursday, they’ve got the best shot at making it to Saturday, if only
since they play South Carolina in the first round. I don’t see any team
from the West beating Tennessee, Kentucky, or Georgia, so it’ll just be the
Razorbacks heading into a game with a Vanderbilt team that should be ready for
revenge after a season-ending loss in Nashville. At least the Razorbacks
will have that one SEC tournament win to comfort them as they head to the
NIT. Um, congrats?
Favorites:
East
MO: It’s really
hard to pick just one, because this should be a case where there are 4 SEC East
teams in the semifinals. Florida has the national spotlight for having a
great season, though the ending might have been a little sour. Vanderbilt
has raised a lot of eyebrows with how well they’re playing, and Kentucky,
despite being a shell of their usual selves, is still Kentucky and still looked
upon favorably by a lot of folks in the media. You have to say, though,
that going into this tournament, the favorite out of the East is
Tennessee. They’ve won seven of their last eight, including a win over
Florida, and have been playing inspired basketball since the return of Chris
Lofton. They’ve got a great draw to the semis, facing LSU on Thursday and
Ole Miss on Friday before a possible rubber match with Florida. If Bruce
Pearl can keep this young team playing the way it has been, they should be able
to at least reach the final, if not win the whole thing. They’ve gotten a
lot of attention recently, and all of it deserved (aside from that woman’s coach
debacle), and a lot of folks will be looking for them to make noise this
weekend.
JW: I'm going to
disagree, if for no other reason than it makes for fun sportswriting!
Seriously, though, I think Florida snaps out of its late-season funk and starts
playing "17-game winning streak" basketball, as opposed to "lost to the worst
team in the West" basketball. We all know they have the weapons, it's just
a matter of desire. With the NCAA tournament just around the corner, I
don't think the Gators want to give up their hold on a #1 seed. I
definitely see them making the semifinals, and I would say they would be favored
to run the table in the tournament. That's why I have them as a favorite
out of the East. Whether being the favorite plays out in their favor
remains to be seen, but it's just too difficult to overlook a team as talented
as Florida, no matter how much I personally dislike them.
Favorites:
West
JW: My favorite
in the West right now is actually Arkansas. They might have been
inconsistent this season, but they have shown that when they're on, they can do
some damage. It all comes down to whether or not Arkansas can put it
together for the tournament. After seeing them take a sluggish Commodore
team to the woodshed (after a 9-point win against West champion Mississippi
State), on senior night no less, I've convinced myself that Arkansas is actually
a better team than they are on paper and they're finally coming on strong.
Sure, maybe that's what I want to see, because I also want to
believe the loss to the Hogs wasn't nearly as bad as it looked. They had a
few good wins early in the season (home against Bama, and then down in
Tuscaloosa, as well as LSU when they were ranked), and as previously noted, they
finished pretty strong. Arkansas has a pretty strong inside presence and
could cause some serious problems for their first two opponents, South Carolina
and Vandy. If they get through those first two rounds, they have a pretty
favorable match-up against either Bama, Kentucky, or Miss. State. Sure,
it's by no means an easy draw, but a more favorable draw than any of their other
seeding would have gotten them (in my humble opinion). Of course, I think
there are at least three East teams that could take Arkansas, so let's face it,
I'm only picking Arkansas because we're trying to be fair and pick a favorite
out of the West.
MO: Geez, do I
have to pick a favorite out of the West? I think that, yes, Arkansas has
been playing well recently, and took Vanderbilt to task in Nashville on Senior
Day. However, I think you have to look at Mississippi St. as a favorite
out of the West. They’ve played well all season, but more importantly,
have a great draw to get there. After a bye on Thursday, they’ll play
either Auburn, who they swept in the regular season, or Kentucky, who only beat
them by four at Rupp. Kentucky has also struggled down the stretch, losing
five of their last 7, so I think that Mississippi St. has a great shot to pull
of the upset (yes, I’d call it an upset despite UK being the E4 and MSU being
the W1) and pull itself into the semifinals. Having said all that, I
actually don’t see ANY teams in the West making it to the semifinals. I’m
merely thinking that of all the teams, the Bulldogs has the best shot at
breaking through, and will in reality lose by the least.
Weekend
Prediction
MO: It’s gonna
be a fight between the beasts from the East. I’m going to go ahead and
carry over my sleeper and favorite picks from the East and give you the
following semi-final matches:
Vanderbilt v.
Kentucky, and Georgia v. Tennessee
That’s right, it’s the
same battle we saw for the first-round bye at the close of the season! In
truth, I like Vanderbilt’s match-up here better than against Mississippi St., as
we swept Kentucky yet again this season. I know that Vandy ended the
season with a disappointing loss to Arkansas, but I’m going to give them the
benefit of the doubt and chalk that up to having little to play aside from
seeding, and, let’s face, winning this weekend is a lot more important than
Saturday’s game. Kentucky will be fighting to regain supremacy in the
East, and will be looking for revenge after having lost to the Commodores in
their last four meetings. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it in the cards
for the Tubster this weekend. Vanderbilt gets yet another first for the
team as they reach the SEC tournament finals for the first time since its
re-instatement, winning 73-64.
The Georgia/Tennessee
game should be interesting from this standpoint – Tennessee will have 24 wins by
that point and a lock for a good seed in the tournament. However, Georgia
will be smack-dab on the bubble; 19-12 and just off a win over
Florida. Neither team has a bye, so each team will be on their third game
in as many nights. I have to say that, despite having played better
basketball recently, I don’t see Tennessee coming out with NEARLY the same
desire that we’ll see out of Georgia. The Bulldogs will know that they
would need 20 wins to be a near-lock, and getting their 20th win over Tennessee
would be a boon to their chances. I think a young Tennessee
under-estimates a team they swept in the regular season and goes down in what
will be the ugliest, yet closest game of the tournament. Georgia holds off
Tennessee in the end, winning 62-58.
This sets up a
Vanderbilt/Georgia final. The teams split the regular season series, and
by now, both should be in the tournament with an at-large bid. This is one
of the many things that Vanderbilt will have in its favor. Georgia simply
won’t have that same sense of urgency now that they’re locked into a tournament
bid. I think Vanderbilt’s bye will loom large here, especially with
Georgia having just been banged around by Florida and Tennessee in the previous
48 hours. I think the final key here is experience – Vanderbilt’s lineup
centers around juniors and seniors, something that the Bulldogs just don’t have
this season.
I like Vanderbilt to
win easy here, not because Georgia is a bad team, but because I just don’t think
they’ll be able to carry themselves for four games, especially with their brutal
stretch before Sunday. I think that Vanderbilt will be able to get the
advantage on the glass, which, combined with a good shooting performance, could
result in one of the more lop-sided SEC Tournament finals in recent
history. Look for Ross Neltner to make a name for himself here, especially
with teams keying on Foster and Byars. I like Byars to lead all scorers in
every game this weekend, and to be named MVP of the tournament with Neltner on
the all-tourney team, as Vanderbilt cuts down their second set of nets in a
week, bringing home an SEC Tournament title to match the
women’s.
JW: This
speculation about East/West favorites and "sleepers" is all well and good, since
it gives me an opportunity to do what I do best - waffle! Sure, Alabama
could be a sleeper surprise, but since I picked them as a sleeper, nobody's
going to come after me if I'm wrong, right? (Right?) Same with
favorites, since we all know the favorites can always lay a giant egg, and I
still would be in good company with my "favorites" picks. But now I'm
being forced by the powers that be to actually make a prediction for how the
semifinals and finals of the SEC Tournament shape up. There's no way
around actually going out on a limb here, so I'll do my best. Of course,
keep in mind my performance in actually picking games during football
season...
Anyway, here are my
semifinal match-ups - Alabama vs. Vanderbilt, and Florida vs.
Tennessee.
These match-ups aren't
too gutsy, aside from the fact that I'm sticking to my prediction of Alabama
being a sleeper surprise. I just think they are going to benefit from
Kentucky's rough season and they can definitely take State, considering how
evenly matched most of the West teams are against each other. I just think
'Bama is fortunate to have the draw it got and will be able to win a
couple. Sure, Vandy has a tough draw against either an Arkansas team that,
well, we all know what happened last time they met, and a South Carolina team
who always seems to have our number, even when we win. However, I think
the Commodores are embarrassed about the Great Senior Night Debacle and are
going to roll into the tournament with something to prove. Vanderbilt
is a flat-out better team than USC or Arkansas, and I believe the
Commodores will actually play like they are come Friday
afternoon.
The other side of the
semifinal match-up is somewhat of a no-brainer, if you ask me. Sure,
Florida has been slumping lately, but I'm sure Coach Donovan will have them
playing lights-out, now that it's important again. Florida wants to defend
its championship and prove that they're still a legit #1 seed and national title
contender. Also, they'll be up against Auburn or Georgia. Yeah, that
shouldn't be too difficult for the Gators. As for Tennessee, I already
said it once, and I'll say it again, the Vols are currently playing the best
basketball in the SEC. If they can continue this roll, they should be able
to handle LSU and Ole Miss without much problem.
As for the finals,
this is much tougher. Of course, my heart is already pulling me in one
direction, while my mind is forcing me to try to look at things
objectively. The question really is, which Vanderbilt team will show up in
the tourney? However, since I've already decided they'll make the semis, I
must think that "good" Vanderbilt will show up, at least enough to beat Arkansas
or USC. And if that happens, I think Vanderbilt certainly can take it to
Alabama. The 'Dores overwhelmed the Tide early this season, and I believe
they can do it again. Therefore, I say Vanderbilt makes the finals,
winning 83-67.
On the other side,
maybe I picked Florida/Tennessee because I know it would make for a ridiculously
good game. If this match-up happens, I'll be happy - not just because I
actually predicted something correctly for a change, but also because it should
be a fun game to watch, no matter who you're rooting for. If it plays out
this way, I'm going to say that Tennessee edges the Gators, namely because the
Vols once again feel like they have something to prove and will embrace their
underdog status as a team that didn't receive a first-round bye. I know I
said earlier that Florida will play like it counts, but I just don't think they
can stop the momentum of the big (ugly) orange machine. UT has the energy
to win three tournament games back-to-back, beating the Gators 82-74, and
setting them up for an historic match-up with the Black and
Gold.
So there you have it,
an SEC finals showdown between Vanderbilt and Tennessee. How does it go
down? Let's see, I've said that Tennessee is playing the best basketball
in the SEC right now, the teams split their previous series with Vanderbilt
winning in Nashville on a last-second putback and Tennessee absolutely
destroying Vandy in Knoxville, and Vanderbilt's end to the season left, shall we
say, something to be desired. All signs point to UT winning this match-up
if it happens, but I'm not convinced. If Vanderbilt makes it to the
finals, and I think they can and will, it will mean that the 'Dores will have
rediscovered how to play some serious basketball as they did when they were
beating top 25 teams left and right. They'll also have the advantage of
having only played two games to get there, whereas Tennessee will have played
three games in back-to-back-to-back days. Momentum or no momentum, the
Vols will be tired and almost out of gas. While playing a third game in as
many days is no cakewalk either, it's obviously better than playing a fourth,
and I believe this is ultimately what gives Vandy the edge. I see a close,
hard-fought game until the final eight minutes, when the Vols just simply run
out of steam and Vanderbilt pulls away. Ultimately, I see a Vanderbilt
win, somewhere in the neighborhood of 78-63, with Shan Foster named tournament
MVP thanks to his hot shooting, and Derrick Byars on the all-tournament
team.
As much as this sounds
like "Jay's Vanderbilt SEC Tournament Fantasy World," I really do think this can
happen. I'll go ahead and say the two words that might come back to haunt
me, and cause the blame for any tournament exit by Vanderbilt to be placed
squarely on my shoulders:
Book
it.