Notably to fans of the column, Alabama brings its thundering horde of fans to
Nashville, bringing with it a much-ballyhooed head coach and overwhelming
expectations. We’ll get to that game in a bit, but first, we’ll tackle the
other SEC games and a few extra that should garner some national attention as
well.
Jay Williams: It was certainly an interesting week of
college football to kick off the season: We saw Georgia Tech completely
manhandle a Notre Dame team that thought keeping its starting quarterback a
secret until gameday would give them a leg up. Memo to Charlie Weis: That strategy doesn't work if all your QBs are terrible.
Auburn fought back and pulled off a close win over Kansas State, thanks to a
ferocious defense. The Georgia Bulldogs made a win over Oklahoma State
look easy, and in the process made me look like an idiot with last week's
pick. In what was a bittersweet moment for some Commodore fans, Cal took
care of Tennessee and avenged last year's dismantling in Knoxville. I say
bittersweet because it just gives PAC-10 fans "evidence" that their conference
is superior to the SEC. But then again, the Vols lost. It's a tough
call, I know. So, aside from those notable games, there wasn't really any
other major game worth discussing. Now, I did take a nap around noon on
Saturday and didn't wake up until about 4pm, and being the good journalist that
I am, I opted not to watch any highlights of games or read any stories.
Besides, that set of games looked like a bunch of big boys vs. cupcakes, so I'm
sure I didn't miss anything.
South Carolina @ Georgia
JW: Last week, Georgia showed that it just might deserve that lofty
ranking, as quarterback Matthew Stafford played an impressive game and the
Bulldog defense did a great job of containing a supposedly explosive Oklahoma
State offense. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, struggled somewhat
against Louisiana-Lafayette. How much of that is attributable to
quarterback Blake Mitchell's suspension remains to be seen, but South Carolina's
sloppiness on the field stands in stark contrast to a lot of the pre-season hype
built up by many, including Steve Spurrier himself. Georgia has
traditionally dominated this yearly matchup, going 11-4, and the Bulldogs
currently hold a five-game winning streak, including an ugly 18-0 victory just a
year ago. This game should be closer than recent memory, as the Gamecocks
are improving talent-wise, but I just haven't seen much evidence to back up The
Visor's predictions of competing for an SEC-East crown this year. I know,
first games of the season are always a difficult gauge, but I see Georgia
pulling this off with relative ease between the hedges. Bulldogs by
10.
MO: This is an interesting game, especially with the
inclusion of Blake Mitchell. I don’t see South Carolina contesting for the
SEC East crown either, but I do think they’ve got a good chance to sneak away
from Athens with an upset victory. Georgia hasn’t seen what Mitchell can do
this season, and you can trust Spurrier to come up with something that will
catch the Bulldog defense on their toes all day. I’ll take the upset here,
with Mitchell having a breakout game in Athens. Gamecocks by 15.
Troy @ Florida
MO: All right, let’s give Troy a little credit – they
played Arkansas close through the first half of last week’s game, trailing 23-17
at halftime before the Hogs poured it on in the third quarter. That said,
don’t expect to see the same “success” against Florida. The Gator looked
great against Western Kentucky, though really, who doesn’t look good against the
Hilltoppers? That said, Florida should still cruise going into their yearly
showdown with Tennessee next week. Gators by 27.
JW: I think we're all disappointed that Tim Tebow
didn't exclusively run the QB draw. Then again, I'm not sure Western
Kentucky would have been able to stop that, either, but the game would have been
a little more respectable. Apparently, Urban Meyer was disappointed in his
defense's play last week, where they gave up only 3 points, so he's doing a
little re-tooling. This guy is obviously taking the idea that there's
always room for improvement to heart. Sure, Western Kentucky isn't exactly
LSU, but allowing only 3 points against most any team is pretty
impressive. Troy, of course, is looking for the upset, after almost
upsetting Arkansas in a half of football last week. Now that we know Tim
Tebow can pass, and Urban Meyer has assured us that the Gator defense will be
retooled and improved from last weeks 3-points-allowed debacle, poor Troy
doesn't stand much of a chance. Unless Florida is seriously looking past
Troy to the Tennessee game, there shouldn't be much of a game here.
Florida by 30.
Kent St. @ Kentucky
JW: This game was obviously scheduled as another
tune-up game before the SEC slate for the Wildcats, but Kentucky would be well
served to pay a little more attention to the Golden Flashes, after they knocked
off Iowa State last week. Sure, Iowa State has a whole host of problems
and is dealing with a new coach, but it was still a surprising (albeit ugly) win
for Kent State. Now, I'm not saying that Kentucky is going to have a lot
of problems with Kent State - I just know that when a team from a smaller,
weaker conference is overlooked by a bigger, more talented team in a power
conference, upsets are possible. I really wish I had a good example to
give here, but I don't. You'll just have to use your imagination.
Anyway, Andre Woodson looked sharp last week, and I expect the Wildcat offense
to keep chugging along. It won't be the 40-point blowout they had last
week, but it'll still be a solid win for the wildcats, as they prepare for next
week's game with Louisville. UK by 20.
MO: Yawn. Wake me when the Wildcats schedule a real
opponent. ‘Cats by 27.
Missouri @ Ole Miss
MO: It’s the battle of the Misses!! Ole Miss
looked awful in their win against Memphis, nearly blowing the 23-point they had
late in the third quarter. Mizzou didn’t look much better, letting Illinois
whittle away a 24-point lead to just 3 points in a scant 6 minutes. That
said, Illinois is coached by Ron Zook, while Memphis might as well be coached by
Jon Calipari’s tailor. Coach O won’t make it out of this game if his
players quit in the second half like they did last week. The only
problem? Even if they don’t quite in the second half, they’ll still have to
start it down by two touchdowns. Mizzou by 20.
JW: Hey, a win is a win, right? That's what
they're saying in Oxford, at least. According to the most avid Ole Miss
fan I know, the Rebels are getting quite good at staking a solid halftime lead,
then watching it quickly slip away as the third and fourth quarters tick
by. They were fortunate to win as the "visiting" team in Memphis, a scant
85 miles from Oxford. It's worth noting that in spite of the overall sorry
state of Ole Miss football under his reign, Ed Orgeron has never lost to the
Tigers. I'm not sure if that speaks to the rivalry or the fact that
Memphis just isn't that good. A team Orgeron isn't undefeated against,
however, is Mizzou, who thrashed the Rebs last year, 34-7, the second game of
another season of woe for the Ole Miss faithful. Missouri is one of those
teams that seems to always be on the cusp of putting together a solid Big 12
season, before blowing it to a lesser team. This year, they look primed to
do much of the same again, after Coach Gary Pinkel made a questionable decision
or two that could have led to a defeat at the hands of Illinois. Despite
his best efforts, they pulled off the victory, but now they face another tough
road test in Oxford. Both teams, to put it diplomatically, have a lot to
improve on from their first games, so it's once again hard to pick a
favorite. Ultimately, I think Mizzou has more talent, despite the obvious
efforts of their coach to sabotage their season. Ole Miss just plain isn't
very good, and it will show this week in front of a partisan crowd. I
don't see Mizzou ever holding onto a very solid lead like they did last year,
but ultimately they'll pull out the win. Tigers by 4.
Southern Miss @ Tennessee
JW: I feel for Southern Miss. They're headed
into Neyland to face a Tennessee fan base that needs some serious reassurances
that the Volunteers are still a powerhouse, and the Cal loss was just a small
speed bump on the road back to glory. A lesser team than the Golden Eagles
would be thrashed up and down the field for 60 minutes, much to the delight of
the orange-clad audience. However, Southern Miss is no pushover.
Tailback Damion Fletcher is a very quick runner who amassed over 1,300 yards
last season as a true freshman. He hung 156 yards on I-AA UT-Martin last
week, and regardless of the opponent, that's pretty impressive. Of course,
the passing attack for USM leaves much to be desired, and UT definitely has the
talent to force the Eagles to go to the air. USM isn't the perfect
post-Cal game, but the Volunteers should be plenty motivated, and they're plenty
talented to notch the win. Tennessee by 17.
MO: You have to give Tennessee credit – their
non-conference schedule this season has featured two good teams, and when they
probably scheduled Southern Miss, the Eagles were ranked. That said, things
have slid lately at Southern Miss, and they are indeed walking into a hornet’s
nest of bad signs. Tennessee makes up for a disappointing loss, winning by
26.
Mississippi State @ Tulane
MO: Mississippi State is a favorite? Against a
Division I opponent? Wha…?? Are they starting to allow points for
interceptions? Are we playing Bizarro football, where the most points
loses? While we have yet to see anything out of Tulane (they didn’t play
last week), we haven’t really seen anything out of the Bulldogs either, and
they’ve had 60 minutes of chances to show us! The dismal season drags on,
and the men in maroon might want to think about not coming home after this
one. Wave by 10.
JW: Not so fast, my friend (did I seriously just say
that?). Mississippi State does have some things going for it. After
all, this is Tulane's first game of the season, so they might have some jitters
to work out of their system, and State was able to gauge just what needs to be
improved on from its loss to LSU (pretty much everything). Tulane won this
game last year in a close one in Starkville, but I'd like to believe the
Bulldogs are at least somewhat improved from last year. But then again, I
look at the LSU game and ponder the six interceptions thrown by Michael Henig,
and I wonder if I'm just kidding myself. This is one of those games where
I'm ultimately going to have to go with my SEC bias and say that State has some
strength - at least enough to top a low-level C-USA team. Bulldogs by
3.
South Florida @ Auburn
JW: Well, we all know Auburn has a defense. But
what of their offense? It certainly didn't look very effective against
Kansas State, who sent Brandon Cox to the ground many, many times (five sacks!),
and never really clicked until about 3:00 remained on the clock. However,
that could have been more attributable to Kansas State's fatigue than Auburn's
offense finally getting it together. South Florida is one of those teams
that always gets hyped as a potential giant-killer, and they follow through
every now and then (remember West Virginia?). But let's face it, they're
in the Big East, and they're not even tops in the Big East. They're good,
but they're not SEC good, and they're coming up against an Auburn team that
still has a lot to prove. Look for USF to try to mimic Kansas State's
success in going after Brandon Cox, but look for Tuberville to be ready for it
this time. I expect the Bulls to put up a fight, but in the end, a hungry
Auburn team will be just too much for them. Tigers by 10.
MO: The heat in Auburn hasn’t been from the weather
this week – it’s been the fire under the offensive line’s collective hind
end. South Florida has indeed been pegged as this year’s “sleeper pick” by
a lot of college football fans and pundits, Then again, if everyone picks
you as a sleeper, can you really be a sleeper? The only thing sleeping
after this game will be the South Florida faithful who will give up on the game
after the Tigers get a three-touchdown lead. The Bulls make it respectable
in the last few minutes, but it’s War Eagle to the tune of a 17-point win.
Notre Dame @ Penn State
MO: You know, Jimmy Clausen could surprise a lot of
folks. After all, the last time a Clausen started a football game, his team
played valiantly against an opponent that simply overwhelmed
them. Commodore fans remember that November day in 2005 well, don’t
we? Kidding aside, I expect Notre Dame to bounce back well – Georgia Tech
has a good team this season, and a lot of last week’s slaughter was due to their
talent rather than the Irish’s lack thereof. That said, Penn State is too
good of a team to lose this game. It’ll be tighter than most think – tight
enough for those who jumped off the Notre Dame bandwagon to hop right back
on. Nittany Lions by 13.
JW: Thanks for that little slice of history,
Mike. It's good to work that game in as much as humanly possible.
That aside, your point is well-taken - the quarterback situation in Notre Dame
is a complete disaster. As Tennessee fans can attest to, not having a
definite starter for most of the season is a recipe for many, many losses.
Granted, there are plenty of other problems in South Bend, but the quarterback
situation is conveniently taking center stage. Last year, the Nittany
Lions were embarrassed at Notre Dame, dropping the game 41-17, and also
providing my first absolutely horrible "upset pick" in the history of Mike and
Jay's SEC/College Picks. Sure, I've gone on to make many terrible picks,
but that one was the one that really laid the foundation for where I am today,
and I remember it fondly. I thought Notre Dame was overrated last year,
and they ended up proving me right - just not exactly when I wanted them to, or
to the degree I had expected. This year, I again predict Notre Dame to
lose, but I think my chances are much better this time around. Penn State
is looking for revenge, they have a quarterback who can, you know, throw the
ball, and an impressive defense that should give any and all Irish quarterbacks
a serious headache. I'm taking the Nittany Lions by 24, which would be
perfect revenge for last year's loss.
Miami @ Oklahoma (-10.5)
JW: Both teams dominated in their season openers -
Miami coach Randy Shannon had a brawl-free debut against Marshall, cruising
31-3, and Oklahoma probably could have put in the band for the second half and
still beaten North Texas. Unfortunately for North Texas (but fortunately
for the band), they didn't, and Oklahoma ended up winning 79-10. Miami's
looking to rebound after a very disappointing 7-6 season most notable for the
ridiculous brawl with Florida International. Shannon is attempting to
reform the Hurricanes' image as well as make them a contender again.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, is building on a solid season last year, and
looking to put the finishing touches on a team that's extremely close to vying
for a national title. While these teams are both expected to make some
noise this year, Oklahoma is still quite a bit more talented than the
Hurricanes. Look for Oklahoma to come out swinging and build a strong lead
early on, and then let the defense finish the job. Sooners by 17.
MO: I wouldn’t count out this Miami team, though (and
this is Grade A journalism here, folks) I’m not sure why. Two games stick
out in my mind about Oklahoma’s season last year – Oregon and Boise State. Both teams come from lesser football conferences (and yes, I know
I’m including the Pac-10 by saying that) and both teams beat the Sooners
late. I see Miami doing that this week, not because of exploited match-ups
or tactics advantages, but because in recent past, teams have been making a name
for themselves off Oklahoma. Miami follows suit this season, winning by
9.
TCU @ Texas
MO: I’m going to resist the urge to make a “Horny-toad”
joke here, if only because TCU kicked our butts up and down the field the last
time we played them. TCU is looking for their second win against a Big 12
team from the Lone Star State in as many weeks. The only problem is that
this week they’re up against the Longhorns rather than Baylor. Texas had a
scare against Arkansas State last week, but I think that they’ll bounce back
from a disappointing performance and put the hurt on the Frogs early. TCU
comes up fast towards the end of the game, but Texas should be able to ice this
one halfway through the fourth quarter. ‘Horns by 13.
JW: See, since Mike made his pick first on this one
and took the high road, I'm forced to avoid the "Horny-toad" jokes as well and
actually try to write about two teams that I have little to no interest in, and
sound like I know what I'm talking about. It's much easier when I can rely
on a cheap joke or two to hide the fact that I don't know what I'm doing.
This should actually be a pretty decent game, since TCU is certainly no
pushover. In fact, they hold a five game winning streak against Big 12
teams. Of course, this should be balanced with the fact that TCU hasn't
played the Longhorns since 1995, when the Horned Frogs won 27-19. Of
course, they haven't exactly beaten pushovers, either, as their streak includes
wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. Texas QB Colt McCoy, who
looks a little like Frankie Muniz, wasn't exactly impressive against the
powerhouse known as Arkansas State. He had some good yardage and a decent
completion percentage, but he also tossed two interceptions against their
vaunted defense. The problem is, TCU's defense is
actually good, which could cause some issues for the Longhorns,
unless they've made some serious adjustments this week. It's time for me
to go out on a limb and make a bold upset prediction. Texas fans, you can
thank me later, because I'm pretty much guaranteeing your team a win. TCU
by 6.
VA Tech @ LSU (-12)
JW: Virginia Tech had a very emotional start to their
season, as that campus is still trying to cope with the tragedy that struck last
spring. This is why it's hard to read anything, positive or negative, into
their 17-7 victory over East Carolina. LSU, on the other hand, pretty much
dominated Mississippi State from start to finish, in particular showcasing their
defensive prowess. This has the makings of a great game, as both teams are
ranked in the top ten and both have a considerable amount of talent. The
key to this game is whether or not Tech can figure out how to get past the Tiger
defense, because Mississippi State certainly couldn't. What I'm starting
to believe, however, is that very few (if any) teams will be able to pull this
off. I expect a closer game than the one played in Starkville last week,
but ultimately we're going to see the same result: another Bayou Bengal win,
this time in front of a rabid home crowd. The Hokies are a good team, and
they have a lot to play for this season, but ultimately LSU is just
too good. Tigers by 14.
MO: You know, while I can appreciate what the LSU
defense did in shutting out an SEC team, let’s face it – they did against a
Mississippi State offense who couldn’t get out of their own way. The Tiger
interceptions were caused mostly by Bulldog mistakes rather than defensive backs
stepping in front of passes, etc. On the other hand, Virginia Tech didn’t
look all that great in their season opener, but they can be a lot better. I
really think that this game is where the Hokies make their mark. Last week
they had the weight of the Hokie Nation on their shoulders added to the national
spotlight and other distractions. The best thing for this team, I think,
will be getting away from Blacksburg and focusing on football. While the
tragedy will never fully leave them, letting the players focus on being just
that – players – rather than counselors will free this team. I think they
play inspired football, shocking those read too much into LSU’s opening shutout
as well as those who saw too little in Virginia Tech’s tight win. Hokies by
10.
Alabama @ Vanderbilt
MO: Everything seems to favor Bama going into the game
– they had a bigger win last week, they grabbed the jewel of off-season
acquisitions in Nick Saban, an energized fan base that is threatening to
outnumber Commodores fans at Dudley, and they’ve had our number for
years. Here’s their only problem: the don’t have the better
team. Vandy has the chip on their shoulder from the tight game at Alabama
last year, and most of the key players in that return. With the spotlight
on Nashville to showcase Saban, I see Vandy coming out firing, using the option
to keep defenses honest and get Heisman candidate Earl Bennett open early and
often. Saban has to play catch-up, something that he’s not used to doing,
and probably shouldn’t be comfortable doing with John Parker Wilson, who hasn’t
thrown a touchdown pass this season and has only beaten Western Carolina and
Florida International in his last seven starts. Again, while a lot of
things point to Alabama, this is my “Screw it, I’m going with Vanderbilt” pick
that worked so well for last years Georgia game. The Tide pull close in the
closing minutes, but Vanderbilt ices it late in the game, and as the final gun
sounds, it’ll be Dores by 10.
JW: You know what's sad? I've stayed up a couple
of nights this past week pondering this game, worrying about how the Commodores
match up against Bama. I know, our bowl hopes don't hinge on this game,
and there's no shame in losing to Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, but I
really want Vandy to pull this off. I even mentioned a while
back that it wouldn't be the huge upset some people think it would be, and I was
derided for my opinion. But I really do think that's the case - I know the
history - Bama has won roughly a gajillion times in a row against Vanderbilt,
and the Tide is certainly one of the more historically successful programs in
the SEC and in the country, while Vanderbilt is, well, Vanderbilt. But
look at what's happened lately - nobody can deny that the Commodores are
stronger than they have been in quite a while, and Alabama is still in a
"rebuilding" phase. I personally think these two teams are more
evenly-matched than people expect, which is why I don't see a Vanderbilt victory
as a huge upset. Now, whether I actually think we're going to pull it off
is another story. I actually see this as a back and forth game, with
Alabama having the lead at halftime, by about ten or so. But I see the
Commodores pulling it together in front of a hometown crowd (please don't let it
be more than 50% Bama fans), and scraping back into the game, taking the lead in
the fourth quarter. By this time I'll either be on my 10th beer or my
second bottle of Tums (or both), but certainly on my way to my first heart
attack. I think the 'Dores win this one in an instant classic, stuffing
the final Alabama drive as the final seconds tick off the clock. Also,
just to make it that much sweeter, this will be the game that will put more of
the media on notice that Earl Bennett is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Am I over-influenced by my gold-colored glasses? I guess we'll see on
Saturday. Vanderbilt by 4.