MO: Forgive me for hopping up on my soapbox before we
get to this week’s games, but I’m taking a few sentences to be one of the few in
the media to defend Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy. While I understand
why fellow writers are standing up for the Oklahoman columnist, Gundy was
absolutely right to do what he did. There are far too many people who make
peace with the fact that the Fourth Estate will make asinine statements about
amateur athletes in order to sell papers or to garner attention, which this
specific columnist achieved. However, it’s up to coaches and fans to hold
them accountable, and he has every right to making a spectacle of himself in a
public forum as she did by writing such foolish words in her column. I,
for one, applaud Gundy’s taking a stand against an attack on one of his players
and irresponsible journalism. Speaking of which, let’s get to this week’s
picks!
JW: I'm more a fan of making generalized asinine
comments about whole teams and/or conferences. Apparently, I just feel
more secure in making fun of large groups of 18-to-24 year-olds instead of
individual 18-to-24 year-olds. See, that's what separates me from the
pack. I won't overly pick on a particular player, but if you give me an
opening to belittle a team that's not in the SEC (or a certain team in the SEC),
I will take full advantage. Whenever I want to make personal comments
about a particular player outside of his general ability to play football, I
take a moment to think about it: This is just some kid trying to make it
in a demanding, unforgiving sport......who could easily beat me up if we ever
met in person. Now, let's do some picking!
LSU @ Tulane
MO: As good as they are, writing about LSU is starting
to get a little uninteresting. I started out doubting their position in
the polls, then ate my humble pie, and all through the season, they keep putting
up impressive wins, including last week’s win over South Carolina. Now
they’re going up against a Tulane team whose only win has come against SE
Louisana (and even that was just by a touchdown)? Yes, this is a classic
“sandwich” game for LSU with a HUGE match-up against Florida next week, and this
is Tulane’s Super Bowl, but I don’t see any hope here for the Wave. LSU
socres early and often, hoping to put a scare into the Gators and win back the
confidence of the pollsters, winning by 38.
JW: I feel bad for Tulane - not only are they about to
get trounced, but this is a "home" game for them in the Superdome in which LSU
fans will undoubtedly outnumber Green Wave fans by a ridiculous amount. As
a Vanderbilt fan, I can certainly feel their pain. Luckily for me, as a
Vanderbilt fan, I don't also have to feel the pain of being crushed by LSU this
year (although we've certainly had our fair share in the past). Despite
giving up 16 points to South Carolina, the LSU defense is still ridiculously
strong. How can anyone expect Tulane to score anything if Virginia Tech
could only muster a touchdown? If the Green Wave gets two touchdowns in
this game, it's only because Les Miles decided to put the band in on defense for
the last five minutes of the game. Then again, I hear they have some
pretty beefy trombone players. LSU by 40.
Florida Atlantic @ Kentucky
JW: Could Florida Atlantic catch Kentucky being overly
complacent after its impressive start to the season? After all, the
Wildcats have a huge slate of big SEC games just around the corner. Who
really has the time to prepare for a Sun Belt team, anyway? Well, when
it's a Sun Belt team that's already beaten one BCS conference team this season,
you might want to pay a little attention. Luckily for UK, even the
smallest amount of attention should be enough to get by the Owls. Let's
keep in mind, here - FAU might have beaten Minnesota, but they got pounded by
Oklahoma State. Kentucky is no Oklahoma State. Look for the Wildcats
to cruise, winning by 30.
MO: FAU is one of this season’s great stories – from
the bottom of the league to threatening to finish over .500 by the end of the
year. That success, though, will have to wait for next week to
continue. Kentucky’s on far too much of a roll, especially after last
week’s comeback win at Arkansas. Big ups to the Wildcat defense, who
stopped then-Heisman frontrunner Darren McFaddon from converting a key third
down early in the fourth quarter, allowing them to get the ball back and take
the lead on their ensuing possession. Kentucky gets back on their
dominating streak, knocking the Owls around all day, winning by 24.
North Texas @ Arkansas
MO: Maybe Mitch Mustain was a little more valuable
than we all thought. Arkansas sits at (1-2) on the season, thanks in part
to giving up that fourth quarter lead to Kentucky. The offense didn’t
score at all in the second half (the nine points scored came from a safety and
the return of the ensuing kickoff), despite having McFaddon in the
backfield. As I mentioned, this either speaks well of the Kentucky defense
or poorly of the Hogs’ offense. We won’t find out this week which it is,
though, as they play a North Texas team that the Vanderbilt trumpet and trombone
lines could score regularly against. Arkansas goes Nutts (sorry…) against
the Mean Green, winning by 27.
JW: This is just the type of game the Razorbacks need
to get their act together. They're not as bad as their record, having lost
some heartbreakers. But then again, giving up 21 points in the fourth
quarter is pretty bad. That won't be a problem with North Texas, of
course, as the Mean Green were only able to hang 20 on SMU last week. With
this game, and a game against UT-Chattanooga around the corner, at least
Arkansas will be over .500 headed into their game with Auburn. Look for
McFadden to run at will, and the Razorbacks to win by 30.
Mississippi St. @ South Carolina
JW: Why hello, Bulldogs, welcome to the SEC.
It's so nice of you to finally join us. Who honestly would have believed,
back before the season started, that Mississippi State would have been 3-1 at
this point? Heck, who would have believed that after their opener with
LSU? Ahh, the beauty of college football. But, of course, it might
be time for reality to set in for Sylvester Croom and company. After
beating two bad teams and surprising an SEC foe who might also be bad, MSU faces
South Carolina this week, and later comes up against UT, WVU, Kentucky, Bama,
and Arkansas. That's a pretty tough stretch, even with UAB and Ole Miss
thrown in for good measure. What this all means, of course, is that the
Bulldogs still have a long way to go before a bowl game. South Carolina
got its first loss at the hands of LSU, but hey, at least they scored 16
points. That has to amount to something, right? MSU would love for
this to be a statement game, while Spurrier would love to take his frustrations
out on a hapless SEC opponent (remember when that opponent used to be
Vanderbilt?). I don't think either will happen exactly as planned, as
State is no pushover, but South Carolina is just plain better. I see a
close game for about three and a half quarters, before the Gamecocks manage to
pull away. USC by 14.
MO: Yeah, you’ve definitely got to lean towards South
Carolina here, but let’s take a moment to congratulate the Bulldogs on being
elevated from “joke” status to “Man, I hope we don’t overlook these guys this
season” status. I guess telling Michael Henig to throw to his own receivers
works wonders, doesn’t it? All joking aside, this should be a good game –
last year, these teams opened up against each other, with South Carolina
shutting out MSU, but only scoring 15 points themselves. I like the Dawg
defense to make a statement this week, but I just don’t see the MSU offense
getting up enough production to outscore the Gamecocks. Gotta go with South
Carolina (and the under) here, as they win by 8.
Ole Miss @ Georgia
MO: Ok, so would the real Ole Miss Rebels please stand
up? They certainly put one of their fingers on each hand up to their
critics last week, putting a scare into Florida and gaining a little respect
back after being dominated by Vanderbilt in the previous week (which will look
better after Vanderbilt makes it to a bowl this season). The only
problem? While the game might have driven Rebel fans outta their minds and
outta control with optimism, it still counts as a loss. Georgia, on the
other hand, got a big road win at Alabama last week, winning on the first play
of their half of overtime. Credit the defense there for holding the Tide
to a mere 20% on 3rd down conversion, something that we could see
again this week. Thanks to the Rebels impressive performance last week and
Tennessee’s lackluster season, there’s no chance the Bulldogs look past Ole Miss
this week, which unfortunately would’ve been the only way for Coach O to keep it
close. Bulldogs win by 24.
JW: Why do I suddenly crave candy-coated milk
chocolate? Anyway...I'm not one to brag about my picks (usually because
there's nothing to brag about), but I would like to humbly point out my
prediction last week, where I said that Ole Miss would put a scare into
Florida. So, now that I've used up my ability to correctly forecast a
game, you can safely expect none of my picks to be correct for the rest of the
year (except when I pick Vanderbilt wins, of course). I also think that
the Rebels used up all of their mojo last week against Florida. I don't
know what possessed them last week (or if it was the Gators not taking them
seriously), but this is still a pretty unimpressive football team.
Georgia, on the other hand, regained some respect after the USC loss by going
into Tuscaloosa and emerging with a win. Just like CJG and Chris Nickson
ran well against the Rebel defense, look for Knowshon Moreno to have a career
day against Ole Miss. Georgia will safely defend their home field and come
away with the 13-point victory.
Alabama @ Florida State
JW: You know, if Alabama could re-learn how to play
consistent football in the first three quarters of games, I'd be more convinced
of their ability to make some noise this year in the SEC. But, it seems
that after playing Vanderbilt, they left all their first-through-third quarter
ability behind on Dudley Field, needing dramatic comebacks in the fourth quarter
to beat Arkansas and take Georgia to overtime. Maybe this is why they head
to Tallahassee as an underdog, even though FSU isn't anywhere close to being
ranked, while Bama is still hanging on in the top 25. While Alabama has
been having some consistency issues lately, the Seminoles haven't exactly been
asserting their football prowess, beating Colorado 16-6, a game that wasn't
decided until well into the fourth quarter. Ok, so maybe Colorado isn't as
awful as they've been in the past, but they still aren't exactly good. I
think we all know that Bobby Bowden just isn't who he used to be, while Nick
Saban might actually be a decent coach. I think the Tide rolls into
Tallahassee and "steals" a decisive win. Bama by 10.
MO: Yeah, I’m not sure how Bama’s an underdog here –
Tallahassee hasn’t really been all that fearsome a place to play in a few years,
so I can’t think the homefield advantage would mean THAT much, especially as
well as Bama travels. I could chalk this one up to the “It’s a
Bowden! They *have* to be good!” factor, but I won’t, because there are
some legit factors, including the fact that Florida St. had a bye last week,
while Alabama had a night game go into overtime last week. I want to pull
for the upset, but really, I’m not sure if there is an upset here. This
should be one of the best games of the season, and I like Bama squeaking out yet
another last-minute victory, winning by 4.
Auburn @ Florida
MO: The wind coming out of the south last Saturday was
the sigh of relief coming from Gator fans after their close call with Ole
Miss. True, a win is a win, and road wins are especially valuable, but you
have to think that no one near the Swamp is all that thrilled right now.
Auburn comes into the game on the heels of a dominating win over New Mexico St.,
though the highlight of the night for the team was after the game, when
Auburnnose tackle Josh Thompson proposed to his girlfriend. It’s a good
thing she said yes, as it might be the only good news Auburn sees for a while
thanks to a brutal schedule that won’t let up until they host Ole Miss in late
October. I like Florida to bounce back in a big way here, welcoming the
Tigers to Gainesville and sending them back under .500 once again, winning by
17.
JW: After a tough win in Oxford, Florida dropped a
couple of spots in the polls. And for good reason, too - it wasn't the
prettiest of victories. However, it probably served as a perfect wake-up
call for Florida that they can't cruise along relying on just talent. They
have to actually, you know, play football. And that's just what
they'll do against Auburn, as Urban Meyer knows that the home crowd would love
some reassurance. The Tigers are still looking to salvage a season
derailed by losses to South Florida and Mississippi State. Sure, a win
over Florida in Gainesville would erase any heat Tommy Tuberville is currently
feeling. While we're in wishful thinking mode, I'll also note that a win
in the lottery would erase any heat I'm currently feeling from my student
loans. Gators by 24.
California @ Oregon
JW: Wow, a solid PAC-10 matchup. Ok, I know, I'm
pretty hard on the teams out west, but we're all SEC homers around here, so I
doubt anyone's going to complain too much. However, it is nice to see some
talented teams in the PAC-10, if for no other reason than to not give USC a free
pass to the national championship each year. These are two high-scoring
teams where defense is pretty much an afterthought. Oregon did, of course,
hold Michigan to a single touchdown, but we're still a long ways from finding
out exactly how impressive that was. Cal had a great start to the season
against Tennessee and then has beaten up on some weaker opponents. I feel
for both defenses here, as they're going to be giving up a LOT of points.
Oregon is looking to avenge last year's 45-24 embarrassment, but I'm not so sure
they can pull this off, even with the home field advantage. While they
ultimately rolled over Stanford, they were trailing for a good portion of the
game, and the Ducks seem to have a problem with turnovers. That will be
the difference here - while both teams seem to be able to score at will, Cal
will win because of fewer mistakes. Bears by 10.
MO: “…where defense is a pretty much an
afterthought.” PAC-10 Football, ladies and gentlemen!! I love the rub
that Oregon is getting here – it’s the typical “Hey, look – these guys are
playing one of the top two teams in the PAC-10! They *have* to be good”
over-estimation we’ve seen from the voters for the past few seasons. We saw
this when Tennessee was ranked in the Top 20 before playing Cal – they’re now in
the bottom of the SEC East (and holy cow is that fun to write!). We saw
this when Nebraska was ranked in the top 15 before playing USC – then nearly
lost to Ball State the next week. Seriously, who have the Ducks
played? Stanford? Michigan? Of course the Ducks are
unbeaten! That won’t remain true after Saturday. The hype around
Oregon goes up in flames as Cal runs them right off their own field, ready to
face they’re next opponent, who assuredly will be over-hyped in order to make
the game (and the PAC-10) seem more important that it really is. Bears by
23.
West Virginia @ South Florida
MO: The Friday night game could essentially be for the
Big East title as a suddenly powerful South Florida looks to take Louisville’s
spot as one of the top three teams in the Big East. A win over West
Virginia would be a big step in achieving that, but they’ll have to get through
Pat White and Steve Slaton, along with all the speed they bring to the
table. The Mountaineers have a deceptively unique offense that takes
advatange of their stars’ speed, using both the spread and the option
effectively. The game will be the Bulls’ first true test of the season (as
Auburn was wilted from their normal seat of promience this season), and I don’t
think they’re going to fare well in it. Look for White and Slaton to take
advantage of the national spotlight and further pad their Heisman credentials,
this time against a quality opponent. Mountaineers by 13.
JW: Sure, Slaton and White are an impressive duo, but
let's not forget that USF was able to stop them cold last year, winning 24-19 in
Morgantown, West Virginia, giving USF their one yearly marquee win.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, that marquee win quota for 2007 might have already
been used up at Auburn. This is USF's big chance to make a statement, and
they'll try to do it in front of 45,000 supportive, rabid fans down in
Tampa. It has all the makings of a feel-good story, and it's certainly
possible given the history of these two teams. However, I don't see it
happening this time around, as Pat White and Steve Slaton will be focused on
proving that last year's game was an anomaly. It should be a close,
exciting game between two pretty talented teams, but West Virginia has the
overall talent edge. While USF might have plenty of intangibles going for
it, that can only take you so far. Mountaineers by 7.
Eastern Michigan @ Vanderbilt
JW: Vanderbilt should be rested and ready thanks to a
week off after beating Ole Miss. It might seem silly to need a bye week
between a game like that and a game against Eastern Michigan, but it probably
came at just the right time, as many key players needed an extra weak to heal
some minor injuries. Let's hope Chris Nickson is healed up, gets some
quality time, then comes out with a big lead and lets Mackenzi Adams get some
much-needed playing time. As with the Richmond game, this should be an
easy victory for the 'Dores so long as they show up. Sure, it's easy to
look past Eastern Michigan to a very winnable game in Auburn, but this team
should be disciplined enough to focus on the game at hand and take care of
business. Look for Cassen Jackson-Garrison to run wild against a defense
even weaker than Ole Miss's. Like with the Richmond game, I don't see
Coach Johnson allowing the score to get too out of hand, but I still see another
decisive win. Vandy by 20.
MO: I don’t want to call this a ho-hum game or
anything, but I think you’re right – we’ll see some big plays, but for the most
part, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vandy keep it conservative throughout the
night. Not only will this help keep the pressure off of Nickson and his
shoulder, but it will also help boost the confidence of an offensive line that
has shown improvement in each of the past two games. I really think that
this is the game where the defense makes its statement. Dare I say
shutout? I don’t, but I also don’t think Eastern Michigan hits
double-digits unless it’s in the fourth quarter with the second stringers
in. I really don’t mean to sleep on this team, especially since they’re
from the always-dangerous MAC, but I think the extra week of rest will really
put a charge into Vanderbilt, and I don’t see much hope for the
Eagles. ‘Dores score early and often, keeping things slow in the second
half and winning by 27.